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| {{Short description|Current rise in Earth's average temperature and its effects}} | | {{for|climate change now|Global warming}} |
| <noinclude>{{Hatnote|"Global warming" redirects here. For other uses, see [[Climate change (disambiguation)]], and [[Global warming (disambiguation)]]. This article is about contemporary climate change. For historical climate trends, see [[Climate variability and change]].}}</noinclude>
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| {{Featured article}} | | '''Climate change''' is the [[climate]] of [[Earth]] changing. The Earth's climate has been much hotter and colder than it is today.<ref name=":0">{{Cite news|last1=Rosen|first1=Julia|last2=Parshina-Kottas|first2=Yuliya|title=A climate change guide for kids |work=The New York Times|date=19 April 2021 | url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/04/18/climate/climate-change-future-kids.html|access-date=2021-05-29|issn=0362-4331}}</ref> Climate change this century and last century is sometimes called [[global warming]], because the average temperature on the surface has risen.<ref name=":0" /> The climate is now changing much faster than it has in the recent past. This is because people are putting heat-trapping [[greenhouse gas]]es in Earth's atmosphere. When people talk about climate change they are usually talking about the problem of human-caused [[global warming]], which is happening now (see [[global warming]] for more details). But the climate of the Earth has changed over not just thousands of years, but tens or hundreds of millions of years.<ref name="Alley" /> |
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| {{Use Oxford spelling|date=June 2019}}
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| [[File:Change in Average Temperature With Fahrenheit.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|alt=The global map shows sea temperature rises of 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius; land temperature rises of 1 to 2 degree Celsius; and Arctic temperature rises of up to 4 degrees Celsius.| Average surface air temperatures from 2011 to 2021 compared to the 1956–1976 average]]
| | Sometimes, before there were people, the Earth's climate was much hotter than it is today. For example about 60 million years ago there were a lot of volcanoes, which burnt a lot of underground ''organic matter'' (squashed and [[Fossil|fossilized]] dead plants and animals like coal, gas and oil) so a lot of carbon dioxide and [[methane]] went up in the air like nowadays.<ref name=":1">{{Cite web|last=Lee|first=Howard|date=2020-03-19|title=Sudden Ancient Global Warming Event Traced to Magma Flood|url=https://www.quantamagazine.org/sudden-ancient-global-warming-event-traced-to-magma-flood-20200319/|access-date=2022-08-01|website=Quanta Magazine|language=en}}</ref> This made the Earth hot enough for giant [[Tortoise|tortoises]] and [[Alligator|alligators]] to live in the [[Arctic]].<ref name=":1" /> |
| [[File:Global Temperature And Forces With Fahrenheit.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|alt=The graph from 1880 to 2020 shows natural drivers exhibiting fluctuations of about 0.3 degrees Celsius. Human drivers steadily increase by 0.3 degrees over 100 years to 1980, then steeply by 0.8 degrees more over the past 40 years. |Change in average surface air temperature since the industrial revolution, plus drivers for that change. Human activity has caused increased temperatures, with natural forces adding some variability.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021|loc=SPM-7}}</ref>]] | |
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| <!--Please do not change the content in the lead section without prior discussion--> | | At times in the past, the temperature was much cooler, with the last [[glaciation]] ending about ten thousand years ago.<ref name=":3">Imbrie J. & Imbrie, K.P. 1979. Ice ages: solving the mystery. Short Hills NJ: Enslow. ISBN 978-0-89490-015-0</ref><ref name=Alley>Alley R.B. 2000. ''The two-mile time machine: ice cores, abrupt climate change, and our future''. Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-10296-1</ref> [[Ice age|Ice Ages]] are long times when the Earth got colder, and more ice froze at the [[North Pole|North]] and [[South Pole|South Poles]].<ref name=":2">{{Cite web|title=Problem Solving Activity: What Causes Ice Ages?|url=https://gml.noaa.gov/outreach/info_activities/pdfs/PSA_ice_ages.pdf}}</ref> Sometimes even the whole Earth was covered in ice, and was much colder than today.<ref name=":4">{{cite journal | author=Williams G.E. & Schmidt P.W. | title=Paleomagnetism of the Paleoproterozoic Gowganda and Lorrain formations, Ontario: low palaeolatitude for Huronian glaciation | journal=EPSL | year=1997 | volume=153 | issue=3 | pages=157–169 | url=http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EAE03/08262/EAE03-J-08262.pdf | doi = 10.1016/S0012-821X(97)00181-7 | bibcode=1997E&PSL.153..157W}}</ref><ref name=":5">{{cite journal |author=Evans D.A; Beukes N.J. & Kirschvink J.L. |title=Low-latitude glaciation in the Palaeoproterozoic era |journal=Nature |volume=386 |issue=6622 |pages=262–6 |date=1997 |doi=10.1038/386262a0 |url=http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v386/n6622/abs/386262a0.html|bibcode = 1997Natur.386..262E |s2cid=4364730 }}</ref> There is no one reason why there are Ice Ages. Changes in the [[Earth's orbit]] around the Sun, and the Sun getting brighter or dimmer are events which do happen.<ref name=":2" /> Also how much the Earth is tilted compared to the Sun might make a difference.<ref name=":6">{{Cite web|title=When and how did the ice age end? Could another one start?|url=https://www.amnh.org/explore/ology/earth/ask-a-scientist-about-our-environment/how-did-the-ice-age-end}}</ref> Another source of change is the activities of living things (see [[Great Oxygenation Event]] and [[Huronian glaciation]]).<ref name=":7">{{cite journal | author=Robert E. Kopp | display-authors=etal | title=The Paleoproterozoic snowball Earth: a climate disaster triggered by the evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis | journal=Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. | year=2005 | volume=102 | issue=32 | pages=11131–6 | doi=10.1073/pnas.0504878102 | pmid=16061801 | pmc=1183582 | bibcode=2005PNAS..10211131K | doi-access=free }}</ref><ref name=":8">{{cite journal |first=Nick |last=Lane |title=First breath: Earth's billion-year struggle for oxygen |journal=New Scientist |issue=2746 |date=2010 |doi= |url=https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20527461.100-first-breath-earths-billionyear-struggle-for-oxygen.html }} A snowball period, c2.4–c2.0 billion years ago, triggered by the Great Oxygenation Event [http://ptc-cam.blogspot.com/2010/02/first-breath-earths-billion-year.html] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110106141826/http://ptc-cam.blogspot.com/2010/02/first-breath-earths-billion-year.html |date=2011-01-06 }}</ref> |
| Contemporary '''climate change''' includes both '''global warming''' and its impacts on Earth's weather patterns. There have been [[climate variability and change|previous periods of climate change]], but the current changes are distinctly more rapid and not due to natural causes.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=54| ps=: These global-level rates of human-driven change far exceed the rates of change driven by geophysical or biosphere forces that have altered the Earth System trajectory in the past…}}</ref> Instead, they are caused by the [[Greenhouse gas emissions|emission of greenhouse gases]], mostly [[carbon dioxide]] ({{CO2}}) and [[methane]]. Burning [[fossil fuel]]s for [[World energy consumption|energy use]] creates most of these emissions. Certain [[Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture|agricultural practices]], industrial processes, and [[Deforestation|forest loss]] are additional sources.<ref name="auto2">{{harvnb|Our World in Data, 18 September|2020}}</ref> Greenhouse gases are transparent to sunlight, allowing it through to heat the Earth's surface. When the Earth emits that heat as [[infrared]] radiation the gases absorb it, [[Greenhouse effect|trapping the heat]] near the Earth's surface. As the planet heats up it causes changes like the loss of [[Albedo|sunlight-reflecting snow cover]], amplifying global warming.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=59|ps=: The combined effect of all climate feedback processes is to amplify the climate response to forcing...}}</ref>
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| Due to climate change, deserts are expanding, while [[heat wave]]s and [[wildfire]]s are becoming more common.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019|p=7|ps=: Since the pre-industrial period, the land surface air temperature has risen nearly twice as much as the global average temperature (high confidence). Climate change... contributed to desertification and land degradation in many regions (high confidence).}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019|p=45|ps=: Climate change is playing an increasing role in determining wildfire regimes alongside human activity (medium confidence), with future climate variability expected to enhance the risk and severity of wildfires in many biomes such as tropical rainforests (high confidence).}}</ref> [[polar amplification|Increased warming in the Arctic]] has contributed to melting [[permafrost]], [[retreat of glaciers since 1850|glacial retreat]] and sea ice loss.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019|p=16|ps=: Over the last decades, global warming has led to widespread shrinking of the cryosphere, with mass loss from ice sheets and glaciers (very high confidence), reductions in snow cover (high confidence) and Arctic sea ice extent and thickness (very high confidence), and increased permafrost temperature (very high confidence).}}</ref> Higher temperatures are also causing [[Tropical cyclones and climate change|more intense storms]], droughts, and other [[Extreme weather|weather extremes]].<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch11|2021|p=1517}}</ref> Rapid environmental change in mountains, [[coral reef]]s, and [[Climate change in the Arctic|the Arctic]] is forcing many species to relocate or [[Extinction risk from climate change|become extinct]].<ref>{{cite web|author=EPA|date=19 January 2017|title=Climate Impacts on Ecosystems|url=https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-ecosystems_.html#Extinction|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180127185656/https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-ecosystems_.html#Extinction|archive-date=27 January 2018|access-date=5 February 2019|quote=Mountain and arctic ecosystems and species are particularly sensitive to climate change... As ocean temperatures warm and the acidity of the ocean increases, bleaching and coral die-offs are likely to become more frequent.}}</ref> Climate change [[Effects of climate change on humans|threatens people]] with [[Effects of climate change on agriculture|food]] and [[Water scarcity#Climate change|water]] scarcity, increased flooding, extreme heat, more disease, and [[Economic impacts of climate change|economic loss]]. [[Environmental migrant|Human migration]] and conflict can be a result.<ref name="auto3">{{harvnb|Cattaneo|Beine|Fröhlich|Kniveton|2019}}; {{harvnb|UN Environment, 25 October|2018}}.</ref> The [[World Health Organization]] (WHO) calls climate change the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|pp=13–16}}; {{harvnb|WHO, Nov|2015}}: "Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century. Health professionals have a duty of care to current and future generations. You are on the front line in protecting people from climate impacts – from more heat-waves and other extreme weather events; from outbreaks of infectious diseases such as malaria, dengue and cholera; from the effects of malnutrition; as well as treating people that are affected by cancer, respiratory, cardiovascular and other non-communicable diseases caused by environmental pollution."</ref> Even if efforts to minimise future warming are successful, some [[Effects of climate change|effects]] will continue for centuries. These include [[Rising sea levels|sea level rise]], and warmer, [[ocean acidification|more acidic]] oceans.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=64|ps=: Sustained net zero anthropogenic emissions of {{CO2}} and declining net anthropogenic non-{{CO2}} radiative forcing over a multi-decade period would halt anthropogenic global warming over that period, although it would not halt sea level rise or many other aspects of climate system adjustment.}}</ref>
| | == Hot Earth == |
| | Sometimes, before there were people, the Earth's climate was much hotter than it is today. For example about 60 million years ago there were a lot of volcanoes, which burnt a lot of underground ''organic matter'' (squashed and [[Fossil|fossilized]] dead plants and animals like coal, gas and oil) so a lot of carbon dioxide and [[methane]] went up in the air like nowadays.<ref name=":1" /> This made the Earth hot enough for giant [[Tortoise|tortoises]] and [[Alligator|alligators]] to live in the [[Arctic]].<ref name=":1" /> |
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| Many of these impacts are already felt at the current {{convert|1.2|C-change}} level of warming. Additional warming will increase these impacts and may trigger [[Tipping points in the climate system|tipping points]], such as the melting of the [[Greenland ice sheet]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=71}}</ref> Under the 2015 [[Paris Agreement]], nations collectively agreed to keep warming "well under 2 °C". However, with pledges made under the Agreement, global warming would still reach about {{convert|2.7|C-change}} by the end of the century.<ref name="UNEP2021">{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2021|p=36|ps=: "A continuation of the effort implied by the latest unconditional NDCs and announced pledges is at present estimated to result in warming of about 2.7 °C (range: 2.2–3.2 °C) with a 66 per cent chance."}}</ref> Limiting warming to 1.5 °C will require halving emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=95–96|ps=: In model pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1.5 °C, global net anthropogenic {{CO2}} emissions decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 (40–60% interquartile range), reaching net zero around 2050 (2045–2055 interquartile range)}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|loc=SPM C.3|p=17|ps=:All pathways that limit global warming to 1.5 °C with limited or no overshoot project the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) on the order of 100–1000 GtCO2 over the 21st century. CDR would be used to compensate for residual emissions and, in most cases, achieve net negative emissions to return global warming to 1.5 °C following a peak (high confidence). CDR deployment of several hundreds of GtCO2 is subject to multiple feasibility and sustainability constraints (high confidence).}}; {{harvnb|Rogelj|Meinshausen|Schaeffer|Knutti|Riahi|2015}}; {{harvnb|Hilaire et al.|2019}}</ref>
| | == Cold Earth == |
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| | image1 = Bobcat Fire, Los Angeles, San Gabriel Mountains.jpg
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| | alt1 = Bobcat Fire in Monrovia, CA, September 10, 2020
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| | image2 = Bleached colony of Acropora coral.jpg
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| | alt2 = Bleached colony of Acropora coral
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| | image4 = Boats on Lake Oroville during the 2021 drought.jpg
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| | alt4 = In May 2021, water levels of Lake Oroville dropped to 38% of capacity.
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| | footer = Some effects of climate change, clockwise from top left: [[Wildfire]] intensified by heat and drought, worsening [[drought]]s compromising water supplies, and [[Coral bleaching|bleaching of coral]] caused by ocean acidification and heating.
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| }}</noinclude>
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| Making deep cuts in emissions will require switching away from burning fossil fuels and towards using electricity generated from low-carbon sources. This includes [[Fossil fuel phase-out#Coal|phasing out coal-fired power plants]], vastly increasing use of [[Wind power|wind]], [[Solar power|solar]], and other types of renewable energy, and taking measures to [[Energy conservation|reduce energy use]]. [[electrification|Electricity will need to replace fossil fuels]] for powering transportation, heating buildings, and operating industrial facilities.<ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Table ES.3|p=xxiii}}; {{harvnb|Teske, ed.|2019|p=xxvii, Fig.5}}.</ref><ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Table ES.3 & p. 49}}; {{harvnb|NREL|2017|pp=vi, 12}}</ref> Carbon can also be [[Carbon sequestration|removed from the atmosphere]], for instance by [[Forest protection|increasing forest cover]] and by farming with methods that [[Carbon farming|capture carbon in soil]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=18}}</ref> While communities may [[Climate change adaptation|adapt to climate change]] through efforts like better [[Coastal protection|coastline protection]], they cannot avert the risk of severe, widespread, and permanent impacts.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|loc=SPM 3.2|p=17}}</ref>
| | === Glaciations === |
| | {{main|Glaciation}} |
| | At times in the past, the temperature was much cooler, with the last [[glaciation]] ending about ten thousand years ago.<ref name=":3" /><ref name="Alley" /> |
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| <!--regarding a more compact TOC, see discussion in May 2022 about {{TOC level|3}}-->
| | === Ice Ages === |
| == Terminology ==
| | {{main|Ice Age}} |
| [[File:Greenhouse Effect.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Climate change is driven by rising greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. This strengthens the [[greenhouse effect]] which traps heat in Earth's [[climate system]].<ref>{{harvnb|Trenberth|Fasullo|2016}}</ref>]] | | [[Ice age|Ice Ages]] are long times (much much longer than glaciations) when the Earth got colder, and more ice froze at the [[North Pole|North]] and [[South Pole|South Poles]].<ref name=":2" /> Sometimes even the whole Earth was covered in ice, and was much colder than today.<ref name=":4" /><ref name=":5" /> There is no one reason why there are Ice Ages. Changes in the [[Earth's orbit]] around the Sun, and the Sun getting brighter or dimmer are events which do happen.<ref name=":2" /> Also how much the Earth is tilted compared to the Sun might make a difference.<ref name=":6" /> Another source of change is the activities of living things (see [[Great Oxygenation Event]] and [[Huronian glaciation]]).<ref name=":7" /><ref name=":8" /> |
| Before the 1980s, it was unclear whether warming by increased greenhouse gases would dominate aerosol-induced cooling. Scientists then often used the term ''inadvertent climate modification'' to refer to the human impact on the climate. In the 1980s, the terms ''global warming'' and ''climate change'' were popularised. The former refers only to increased surface warming, the latter describes the full effect of greenhouse gases on the climate.<ref name="Conway 2008">{{harvnb|NASA, 5 December|2008}}.</ref> ''Global warming'' became the most popular term after NASA climate scientist [[James Hansen]] used it in his 1988 testimony in the [[U.S. Senate]].<ref name="history.aip.org" /> In the 2000s, the term ''climate change'' increased in popularity.<ref>{{harvnb|Joo|Kim|Do|Lineman|2015}}.</ref> ''Global warming'' usually refers to human-induced warming of the Earth system, whereas ''climate change'' can refer to natural or anthropogenic change.<ref>{{harvnb|NOAA, 17 June|2015}}: "when scientists or public leaders talk about global warming these days, they almost always mean human-caused warming"; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=120}}: "Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use."</ref> The two terms are often used interchangeably.<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 7 July|2020}}; {{Harvnb|Shaftel|2016}}: "{{thinsp}}'Climate change' and 'global warming' are often used interchangeably but have distinct meanings. ... Global warming refers to the upward temperature trend across the entire Earth since the early 20th century ... Climate change refers to a broad range of global phenomena ...[which] include the increased temperature trends described by global warming."; {{harvnb|Associated Press, 22 September|2015}}: "The terms global warming and climate change can be used interchangeably. Climate change is more accurate scientifically to describe the various effects of greenhouse gases on the world because it includes extreme weather, storms and changes in rainfall patterns, ocean acidification and sea level.".</ref>
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| Various scientists, politicians and media figures have adopted the terms ''[[climate crisis]]'' or ''[[Climate emergency declaration|climate emergency]]'' to talk about climate change, and ''global heating'' instead of ''global warming''.<ref>{{harvnb|Hodder|Martin|2009}}; {{harvnb|BBC Science Focus Magazine, 3 February|2020}}</ref> The policy editor-in-chief of ''[[The Guardian]]'' said they included this language in their editorial guidelines "to ensure that we are being scientifically precise, while also communicating clearly with readers on this very important issue".<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 17 May|2019}}; {{harvnb|BBC Science Focus Magazine, 3 February|2020}}</ref> In 2019, [[Oxford Languages]] chose ''climate emergency'' as [[Oxford Word of the Year|its word of the year]], defining it as "a situation in which urgent action is required to reduce or halt climate change and avoid potentially irreversible environmental damage resulting from it".<ref>{{harvnb|USA Today, 21 November|2019}}.</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Oxford Languages|2019}}</ref>
| | == History of climate change studies == |
| | [[Joseph Fourier]] in 1824, Claude Poulliet in 1827 and 1838, Eunace Foote (1819{{ndash}}1888) in 1856, Irish physicist [[John Tyndall]] (1820–1893) in 1863 onwards,<ref>Tyndall J. 1863. ''Heat as a mode of motion''. London & New York.</ref> [[Svante Arrhenius]] in 1896, and Guy Stewart Callendar (1898–1964) discovered the importance of [[carbon dioxide]] (CO<sub>2</sub>) in climate change. Foote's work was not appreciated, and not widely known. Tyndall proved there were other greenhouse gases as well. [[Nils Gustaf Ekholm]] in 1901 invented the term.<ref>{{cite web|last1=Easterbrook|first1=Steve|title=Who first coined the term "Greenhouse Effect"?|url=http://www.easterbrook.ca/steve/2015/08/who-first-coined-the-term-greenhouse-effect/|website=Serendipity|date=18 August 2015 |accessdate=11 November 2015}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |author=Ekholm N |doi=10.1002/qj.49702711702 |title=On the variations of the climate of the geological and historical past and their causes |journal=Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |volume=27 |number=117 |pages=1–62 |year=1901|bibcode=1901QJRMS..27....1E }}</ref> |
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| == Observed temperature rise == | | === The Sun === |
| {{Main|Temperature record of the last 2,000 years|Instrumental temperature record}} | | {{main|Sun}} |
| [[File:Common Era Temperature.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Global surface temperature reconstruction over the last 2000 years using proxy data from tree rings, corals, and ice cores in blue.<ref>{{harvnb|Neukom|Barboza|Erb|Shi|2019}}.</ref> Directly observed data is in red.<ref name="nasa temperatures">{{cite web|title=Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change|url=https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/|access-date=23 February 2020|publisher=NASA}}</ref>]] | | The Sun gets a little bit hotter and colder every 11 years. This is called the 11-year [[sunspot]] cycle. The change is so small that scientists can barely measure how it affects the temperature of the Earth. If the Sun was causing the Earth to warm up, it would warm both the surface and high up in the air. But the air in the upper [[stratosphere]] is actually getting colder. Therefore the changes in the Sun are not causing the [[global warming]] which is happening now. |
| Multiple independent instrumental datasets show that the [[climate system]] is warming.<ref>{{harvnb|EPA|2016|ps=: The U.S. Global Change Research Program, the National Academy of Sciences, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have each independently concluded that warming of the climate system in recent decades is "unequivocal". This conclusion is not drawn from any one source of data but is based on multiple lines of evidence, including three worldwide temperature datasets showing nearly identical warming trends as well as numerous other independent indicators of global warming (e.g. rising sea levels, shrinking Arctic sea ice).}}
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| </ref> The 2011–2020 decade warmed to an average 1.09 °C [0.95–1.20 °C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|p=SPM-5}}</ref> Surface temperatures are rising by about 0.2 °C per decade,<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=81}}.</ref> with 2020 reaching a temperature of 1.2 °C above the pre-industrial era.{{sfn|WMO|2021|p=6}} Since 1950, the number of cold days and nights has decreased, and the number of warm days and nights has increased.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch2|2013|p=162}}.</ref>
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| There was little net warming between the 18th century and the mid-19th century. Climate information for that period comes from [[Proxy (climate)|climate proxies]], such as trees and [[ice core]]s.<ref name="SR15 Ch1 p57">{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=57|ps=: This report adopts the 51-year reference period, 1850–1900 inclusive, assessed as an approximation of pre-industrial levels in AR5 ... Temperatures rose by 0.0 °C–0.2 °C from 1720–1800 to 1850–1900}}; {{harvnb|Hawkins|Ortega|Suckling|Schurer|2017|p=1844}}</ref> Thermometer records began to provide global coverage around 1850.<ref name="AR5 WG1 SPM p4-5">{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013|pp=4–5|ps=: "Global-scale observations from the instrumental era began in the mid-19th century for temperature and other variables ... the period 1880 to 2012 ... multiple independently produced datasets exist."}}</ref> Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like the [[Medieval Climate Anomaly]] and the [[Little Ice Age]], did not occur at the same time across different regions. Temperatures may have reached as high as those of the late-20th century in a limited set of regions.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013|p=386}}; {{harvnb|Neukom|Steiger|Gómez-Navarro|Wang|2019}}</ref> There have been prehistorical episodes of global warming, such as the [[Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum]].<ref name="AR5 WG1 Ch 5">{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013|pp=389, 399–400|ps=: "The [[Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum|PETM]] [around 55.5–55.3 million years ago] was marked by ... global warming of 4 °C to 7 °C ... [[Deglaciation|Deglacial]] global warming occurred in two main steps from 17.5 to 14.5 ka [thousand years ago] and 13.0 to 10.0 ka."}}</ref> However, the modern observed rise in temperature and {{CO2}} concentrations has been so rapid that even [[Abrupt climate change|abrupt geophysical events]] in Earth's history do not approach current rates.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=54}}.</ref>
| | ==Related pages== |
| | *[[Ecology]] |
| | *[[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] |
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| Evidence of warming from air temperature measurements are reinforced with a wide range of other observations.<ref>{{harvnb|Kennedy|Thorne|Peterson|Ruedy|2010|p=S26}}. Figure 2.5.</ref>{{sfn|Loeb et al.|2021}} There has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation, melting of snow and land ice, and increased [[specific humidity|atmospheric humidity]].<ref>{{harvnb|Kennedy|Thorne|Peterson|Ruedy|2010|pp=S26, S59–S60}}; {{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 1|2017|p=35}}.</ref> Flora and fauna are also behaving in a manner consistent with warming; for instance, plants are [[flowering]] earlier in spring.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch1|2007|loc=Sec. 1.3.5.1|p=99}}</ref> Another key indicator is the cooling of the upper atmosphere, which demonstrates that greenhouse gases are trapping heat near the Earth's surface and preventing it from radiating into space.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/GlobalWarming|title=Global Warming|date=3 June 2010|publisher=[[NASA JPL]]|access-date=11 September 2020|quote=Satellite measurements show warming in the troposphere but cooling in the stratosphere. This vertical pattern is consistent with global warming due to increasing greenhouse gases but inconsistent with warming from natural causes.}}</ref>
| | ==References.== |
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| === Regional aspects to temperature rises ===
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| {{see also|Climate variability and change#Variability between regions}}
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| Regions of the world warm at differing rates. The pattern is independent of where greenhouse gases are emitted, because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet. Since the pre-industrial period, the average surface temperature over land regions has increased almost twice as fast as the global-average surface temperature.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=7}}</ref> This is because of the larger [[heat capacity]] of oceans, and because oceans lose more heat by [[evaporation]].<ref>{{Harvnb|Sutton|Dong|Gregory|2007}}.</ref> The thermal energy in the global climate system has grown with only brief pauses since at least 1970, and over 90% of this extra energy has been [[ocean heat content|stored in the ocean]].<ref name="ocean heat absorption">{{cite web|title=Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content |publisher=NOAA |year=2018 |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190212110601/https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content|archive-date=12 February 2019 |url-status=live|access-date=20 February 2019}}</ref><ref name="Harvipccar5">{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch3|2013|p=257}}: "[[Sea level rise#Ocean heating|Ocean warming]] dominates the global energy change inventory. Warming of the ocean accounts for about 93% of the increase in the Earth's energy inventory between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence), with warming of the upper (0 to 700 m) ocean accounting for about 64% of the total.</ref> The rest has heated the [[atmosphere]], melted ice, and warmed the continents.<ref name=EarthSysSciData_20200907>{{cite journal |last1=von Schuckman |first1=K. |last2=Cheng |first2=L. |last3=Palmer |first3=M. D. |last4=Hansen |first4=J. |last5=Tassone |first5=C. |last6=Aich |first6=V. |last7=Adusumilli |first7=S. |last8=Beltrami |first8=H. |last9=Boyer |first9=T. |last10=Cuesta-Valero |first10=F. J. |display-authors=4 |title=Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go? |journal=Earth System Science Data |date=7 September 2020 |doi=10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020 |doi-access=free |url=https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/2013/2020/ |volume=12 |issue=3 |pages=2013–2041|bibcode=2020ESSD...12.2013V }}</ref>
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| The Northern Hemisphere and the North Pole have warmed much faster than the South Pole and Southern Hemisphere. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also more seasonal snow cover and [[sea ice]]. As these surfaces flip from reflecting a lot of light to being dark after the ice has melted, they start [[albedo|absorbing more heat]].<ref>{{harvnb|NOAA, 10 July|2011}}.</ref> Local black carbon deposits on snow and ice also contribute to Arctic warming.<ref>{{harvnb|United States Environmental Protection Agency|2016|p=5|ps=: "Black carbon that is deposited on snow and ice darkens those surfaces and decreases their reflectivity (albedo). This is known as the snow/ice albedo effect. This effect results in the increased absorption of radiation that accelerates melting."}}</ref> Arctic temperatures are increasing at over [[polar amplification|twice the rate of the rest of the world]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|p=1062}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch3|2019|p=212}}.</ref> Melting of glaciers and ice sheets in the Arctic disrupts ocean circulation, including a weakened [[Gulf Stream]], further changing the climate.<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 12 September|2018}}.</ref>
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| == Drivers of recent temperature rise ==
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| {{Main|Attribution of recent climate change}}
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| [[File:Physical Drivers of climate change.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|Drivers of climate change from 1850–1900 to 2010–2019. There was no significant contribution from internal variability or solar and volcanic drivers.]]
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| The [[climate system]] experiences [[climate variability|various cycles]] on its own which can last for years (such as the [[El Niño–Southern Oscillation#On global warming|El Niño–Southern Oscillation]]), decades or even centuries.<ref>{{harvnb|Delworth|Zeng|2012|p=5}}; {{harvnb|Franzke|Barbosa|Blender|Fredriksen|2020}}</ref> Other changes are caused by an [[Earth's Energy Imbalance|imbalance of energy]] that is "external" to the climate system, but not always external to the Earth.<ref>{{Harvnb|National Research Council|2012|p=9}}</ref> Examples of [[Climate forcing|external forcings]] include changes in the concentrations of [[greenhouse gas]]es, [[solar luminosity]], [[volcano|volcanic]] eruptions, and [[orbital forcing|variations in the Earth's orbit]] around the Sun.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013|p=916}}.</ref>
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| To determine the human contribution to climate change, known internal [[climate variability]] and natural external forcings need to be ruled out. A key approach is to determine unique "fingerprints" for all potential causes, then compare these fingerprints with observed patterns of climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|Knutson|2017|p=443}}; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013|pp=875–876}}</ref> For example, solar forcing can be ruled out as a major cause. Its fingerprint would be warming in the entire atmosphere. Yet, only the lower atmosphere has warmed, consistent with greenhouse gas forcing.<ref name=":1" /> [[Attribution of recent climate change]] shows that the main driver is elevated greenhouse gases, with aerosols having a dampening effect.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013|pp=13–14}}</ref>
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| === Greenhouse gases ===
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| {{Main|Greenhouse gas|Greenhouse gas emissions|Greenhouse effect|Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere}}
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| The Earth absorbs [[sunlight]], then [[Radiative cooling|radiates it as heat]]. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb and reemit [[infrared]] radiation, slowing the rate at which it can pass through the atmosphere and escape into space.<ref>{{cite web|title=The Causes of Climate Change|author=NASA |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/causes|website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet|access-date=8 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190508000022/https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/|archive-date=8 May 2019|url-status=live}}</ref> Before the Industrial Revolution, naturally-occurring amounts of greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be about 33 °C warmer than it would have been in their absence.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch1|2007|loc=FAQ1.1}}: "To emit 240 W m<sup>−2</sup>, a surface would have to have a temperature of around −19 °C. This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth's surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14 °C).</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=What Is the Greenhouse Effect?|author=ACS|author-link=American Chemical Society|url=https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html|access-date=26 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190526110653/https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html|archive-date=26 May 2019|url-status=live}}</ref> While [[water vapour]] (~50%) and clouds (~25%) are the biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect, they increase as a function of temperature and are therefore [[feedback]]s. On the other hand, concentrations of gases such as {{CO2}} (~20%), [[tropospheric ozone]],<ref>Ozone acts as a greenhouse gas in the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the [[troposphere]] (as opposed to the stratospheric [[ozone layer]]). {{harvnb|Wang|Shugart|Lerdau|2017}}</ref> [[Chlorofluorocarbon|CFCs]] and [[nitrous oxide]] are not temperature-dependent, and are therefore external forcings.<ref>{{harvnb|Schmidt|Ruedy|Miller|Lacis|2010}}; {{harvnb|USGCRP Climate Science Supplement|2014|p=742}}</ref>
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| [[File:Carbon Dioxide 800kyr.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|left|{{CO2}} concentrations over the last 800,000 years as measured from ice cores (blue/green) and directly (black)]]
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| Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels ([[coal]], [[Petroleum|oil]], and [[natural gas]]),<ref>{{Harvnb|The Guardian, 19 February|2020}}.</ref> has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, resulting in a [[radiative forcing|radiative imbalance]]. In 2019, the [[Greenhouse gas#Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions|concentrations]] of {{CO2}} and methane had increased by about 48% and 160%, respectively, since 1750.<ref>{{Harvnb|WMO|2021|p=8}}.</ref> These {{CO2}} levels are higher than they have been at any time during the last 2 million years. Concentrations of methane are far higher than they were over the last 800,000 years.{{Sfn|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=TS-35}}
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| [[File:CO2 Emissions by Source Since 1880.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|The [[Global Carbon Project]] shows how additions to {{CO2}} since 1880 have been caused by different sources ramping up one after another.]]
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| Global anthropogenic [[greenhouse gas emissions]] in 2019 were [[Global warming potential|equivalent to]] 59 billion tonnes of {{CO2}}. Of these emissions, 75% was {{CO2}}, 18% was [[methane]], 4% was nitrous oxide, and 2% was [[fluorinated gases]].{{sfn|IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2022|loc=Figure SPM.1}} {{CO2}} emissions primarily come from burning [[fossil fuel]]s to provide energy for [[transport]], manufacturing, [[Heating#Energy sources|heating]], and electricity.<ref name="auto2"/> Additional {{CO2}} emissions come from [[deforestation and climate change|deforestation]] and [[Industrial processes#Chemical processes by main basic material|industrial processes]], which include the {{CO2}} released by the chemical reactions for [[Cement#Chemistry|making cement]], [[Blast furnace#Process engineering and chemistry|steel]], [[Hall–Héroult process|aluminum]], and [[haber process|fertiliser]].<ref>{{harvnb|Olivier|Peters|2019|p=17}}; {{harvnb|Our World in Data, 18 September|2020}}; {{harvnb|EPA|2020|ps=: Greenhouse gas emissions from industry primarily come from burning fossil fuels for energy, as well as greenhouse gas emissions from certain chemical reactions necessary to produce goods from raw materials}}; {{cite web|title=Redox, extraction of iron and transition metals|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zv7f3k7/revision/2|quote=Hot air (oxygen) reacts with the coke (carbon) to produce carbon dioxide and heat energy to heat up the furnace. Removing impurities: The calcium carbonate in the limestone thermally decomposes to form calcium oxide. calcium carbonate → calcium oxide + carbon dioxide}}; {{harvnb|Kvande|2014|ps=: Carbon dioxide gas is formed at the anode, as the carbon anode is consumed upon reaction of carbon with the oxygen ions from the alumina (Al<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub>). Formation of carbon dioxide is unavoidable as long as carbon anodes are used, and it is of great concern because CO<sub>2</sub> is a greenhouse gas}}</ref> Methane emissions [[enteric fermentation|come from livestock]], manure, [[Environmental impact of rice cultivation|rice cultivation]], landfills, wastewater, and [[coal seam gas|coal mining]], as well as [[fugitive gas emissions|oil and gas extraction]].<ref>{{harvnb|EPA|2020}}; {{harvnb|Global Methane Initiative|2020|ps=: Estimated Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions by Source, 2020: [[Enteric fermentation]] (27%), Manure Management (3%), Coal Mining (9%), [[Municipal Solid Waste]] (11%), Oil & Gas (24%), [[Wastewater]] (7%), [[Rice|Rice Cultivation]] (7%)}}</ref> Nitrous oxide emissions largely come from the microbial decomposition of [[fertilizer|fertiliser]].<ref>{{harvnb|EPA|2019|ps=: Agricultural activities, such as fertilizer use, are the primary source of N<sub>2</sub>O emissions}}; {{harvnb|Davidson|2009|ps=: 2.0% of manure nitrogen and 2.5% of fertilizer nitrogen was converted to nitrous oxide between 1860 and 2005; these percentage contributions explain the entire pattern of increasing nitrous oxide concentrations over this period}}</ref>
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| Despite the contribution of deforestation to greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth's land surface, particularly its forests, remain a significant [[carbon sink]] for {{CO2}}. Natural processes, such as [[carbon fixation]] in the soil and photosynthesis, more than offset the greenhouse gas contributions from deforestation. The land-surface sink is estimated to remove about 29% of annual global {{CO2}} emissions.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=10}}</ref> The ocean also serves as a significant carbon sink via a two-step process. First, {{CO2}} dissolves in the surface water. Afterwards, the ocean's [[Thermohaline circulation|overturning circulation]] distributes it deep into the ocean's interior, where it accumulates over time as part of the [[carbon cycle]]. Over the last two decades, the world's oceans have absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted {{CO2}}.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=450}}.</ref>
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| === Aerosols and clouds ===
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| [[Air pollution]], in the form of [[aerosol]]s, not only puts a large burden on human health, but also [[Particulates#Climate effects|affects the climate]] on a large scale.<ref>{{Harvnb|Haywood|2016|p=456}}; {{harvnb|McNeill|2017}}; {{harvnb|Samset|Sand|Smith|Bauer|2018}}.</ref> From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of [[irradiance|sunlight reaching the Earth's surface]] was observed, a phenomenon popularly known as ''[[global dimming]]'',<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch2|2013|p=183}}.</ref> typically attributed to aerosols from biofuel and fossil fuel burning.<ref>{{harvnb|He|Wang|Zhou|Wild|2018}}; {{Harvnb|Storelvmo|Phillips|Lohmann|Leirvik|2016}}</ref> Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much.<ref>{{harvnb|Wild|Gilgen|Roesch|Ohmura|2005}}; {{Harvnb|Storelvmo|Phillips|Lohmann|Leirvik|2016}}; {{harvnb|Samset|Sand|Smith|Bauer|2018}}.</ref>
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| Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation. They also have indirect effects on the [[Earth's energy budget|Earth's radiation budget]]. Sulfate aerosols act as [[cloud condensation nuclei]] and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.<ref>{{harvnb|Twomey|1977}}.</ref> They also reduce the [[Cloud physics#Collision-coalescence|growth of raindrops]], which makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight.<ref>{{harvnb|Albrecht|1989}}.</ref> Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.<ref name=USGCRP_2017_ch2/>
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| While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, [[black carbon]] in [[soot]] that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise.<ref>{{harvnb|Ramanathan|Carmichael|2008}}; {{harvnb|RIVM|2016}}.</ref> Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|Sand|Berntsen|von Salzen|Flanner|2015}}</ref>
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| === Land surface changes ===
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| [[File:20210331 Global tree cover loss - World Resources Institute.svg|thumb|upright=1.4|left|The rate of global tree cover loss has approximately doubled since 2001, to an annual loss approaching an area the size of Italy.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 31 March|2021}}</ref>]]
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| Humans change the Earth's surface mainly to create more [[agricultural land]]. Today, agriculture takes up 34% of Earth's land area, while 26% is forests, and 30% is uninhabitable (glaciers, deserts, etc.).<ref>{{harvnb|Ritchie|Roser|2018}}</ref> The amount of forested land continues to decrease, which is the main land use change that causes global warming.<ref>{{harvnb|The Sustainability Consortium, 13 September|2018}}; {{harvnb|UN FAO|2016|p=18}}.</ref> [[Deforestation]] releases {{CO2}} contained in trees when they are destroyed, plus it prevents those trees from absorbing more {{CO2}} in the future.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=18}}</ref> The main causes of deforestation are: permanent land-use change from forest to agricultural land producing products such as beef and palm oil (27%), logging to produce forestry/forest products (26%), short term [[shifting cultivation]] (24%), and wildfires (23%).<ref>{{harvnb|Curtis|Slay|Harris|Tyukavina|2018}}</ref>
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| Land use changes not only affect greenhouse gas emissions. The type of vegetation in a region affects the local temperature. It impacts how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into space ([[albedo]]), and how much [[evaporative cooling|heat is lost by evaporation]]. For instance, the change from a dark [[forest]] to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. Deforestation can also affect temperatures by modifying the release of chemical compounds that influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns.<ref name="Seymour 2019">{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 December|2019}}</ref> In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to produce significant warming, while at latitudes closer to the poles a gain of albedo (as forest is replaced by snow cover) leads to a cooling effect.<ref name="Seymour 2019" /> Globally, these effects are estimated to have led to a slight cooling, dominated by an increase in surface albedo.<ref name="IPCC Special Report: Climate change and Land p2-54">{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|p=172|ps=: "The global biophysical cooling alone has been estimated by a larger range of climate models and is −0.10 ± 0.14 °C; it ranges from −0.57 °C to +0.06°C ... This cooling is essentially dominated by increases in surface albedo: historical land cover changes have generally led to a dominant brightening of land"}}</ref>
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| === <span class="anchor" id="Sun"></span><span class="anchor" id="Solar activity"></span> Solar and volcanic activity ===
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| {{Further|Solar activity and climate}}
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| Physical climate models are unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when taking into account only variations in solar output and volcanic activity.<ref>{{harvnb|Schmidt|Shindell|Tsigaridis|2014}}; {{harvnb|Fyfe|Meehl|England|Mann|2016}}.</ref> As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect the climate system.<ref name=USGCRP_2017_ch2>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=78}}.</ref> [[solar variation|Solar irradiance]] has been measured directly by [[satellite]]s,<ref>{{Harvnb|National Academies|2008|p=6}}</ref> and indirect measurements are available from the early 1600s onwards.<ref name=USGCRP_2017_ch2 /> There has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth.<ref>{{cite web|title=Is the Sun causing global warming?|website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet|url=https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming|access-date=10 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190505160051/https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/|archive-date=5 May 2019|url-status=live}}</ref> Further evidence for greenhouse gases causing global warming comes from measurements that show a warming of the lower atmosphere (the [[troposphere]]), coupled with a cooling of the upper atmosphere (the [[stratosphere]]).<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch9|2007|pp=702–703}}; {{harvnb|Randel|Shine|Austin|Barnett|2009}}.</ref> If solar variations were responsible for the observed warming, the troposphere and stratosphere would both warm.<ref name=":1">{{Harvnb|USGCRP|2009|p=20}}.</ref>
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| [[Types of volcanic eruptions#Plinian|Explosive volcanic eruptions]] represent the largest natural forcing over the industrial era. When the eruption is sufficiently strong (with [[sulfur dioxide]] reaching the stratosphere), sunlight can be partially blocked for a couple of years. The temperature signal lasts about twice as long. In the industrial era, volcanic activity has had negligible impacts on global temperature trends.<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=79}}</ref> Present-day [[Volcanic gas|volcanic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions]] are equivalent to less than 1% of current anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.{{sfn|Fischer|Aiuppa|2020}}
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| ===<span class="anchor" id="Feedback"></span> Climate change feedback ===
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| {{Main|Climate change feedback|Climate sensitivity}}[[File:NORTH POLE Ice (19626661335).jpg|thumb|Sea ice reflects 50% to 70% of incoming solar radiation while the dark ocean surface only reflects 6%, so melting sea ice is a self-reinforcing feedback.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html|title=Thermodynamics: Albedo|work=NSIDC|access-date=10 October 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171011021602/https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html|archive-date=11 October 2017|url-status=live}}</ref>]]
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| The response of the climate system to an initial forcing is modified by feedbacks: increased by [[self-reinforcing feedback]]s and reduced by [[balancing feedback]]s.<ref>{{cite web|title=The study of Earth as an integrated system|publisher=Earth Science Communications Team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory / California Institute of Technology|year=2013|series=Vitals Signs of the Planet|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190226190002/https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/|archive-date=26 February 2019|url=https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/|url-status=live}}</ref> The main reinforcing feedbacks are the [[Water vapour feedback|water-vapour feedback]], the [[ice–albedo feedback]], and the net effect of clouds.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–91}}<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=58|ps=: The net effect of changes in clouds in response to global warming is to amplify human-induced warming, that is, the net cloud feedback is positive (high confidence)}}</ref> The primary balancing mechanism is [[radiative cooling]], as Earth's surface gives off more [[Infrared|heat]] to space in response to rising temperature.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–90}} In addition to temperature feedbacks, there are feedbacks in the carbon cycle, such as the fertilizing effect of {{CO2}} on plant growth.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013|p=14}}</ref> Uncertainty over feedbacks is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|Wolff|Shepherd|Shuckburgh|Watson|2015|ps=: "the nature and magnitude of these feedbacks are the principal cause of uncertainty in the response of Earth's climate (over multi-decadal and longer periods) to a particular emissions scenario or greenhouse gas concentration pathway."}}</ref>
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| As the air is warmed by greenhouse gases, [[Relative humidity|it can hold more moisture]]. Water vapour is a potent greenhouse gas, so this further heats the atmosphere.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–91}} If cloud cover increases, more sunlight will be reflected back into space, cooling the planet. If clouds become higher and thinner, they act as an insulator, reflecting heat from below back downwards and warming the planet.{{sfn|Williams|Ceppi|Katavouta|2020}} The effect of clouds is the largest source of feedback uncertainty.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=58,59|ps=: clouds remain the largest contribution to overall uncertainty in climate feedbacks}}</ref>
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| Another major feedback is the reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic, which reduces the reflectivity of the Earth's surface.<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 28 May|2013}}.</ref>
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| More of the Sun's energy is now absorbed in these regions, contributing to [[polar amplification|amplification of Arctic temperature changes]].<ref>{{harvnb|Cohen|Screen|Furtado|Barlow|2014}}.</ref> Arctic amplification is also melting [[permafrost]], which releases methane and {{CO2}} into the atmosphere.<ref name="Turetsky 2019">{{harvnb|Turetsky|Abbott|Jones|Anthony|2019}}</ref> Climate change can also cause methane releases from [[wetland]]s, marine systems, and freshwater systems.{{sfn|Dean|Middelburg|Röckmann|Aerts|2018}} Overall, climate feedbacks are expected to become increasingly positive.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=58|ps=: Feedback processes are expected to become more positive overall (more amplifying of global surface temperature changes) on multi-decadal time scales as the spatial pattern of surface warming evolves and global surface temperature increases.}}</ref>
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| Around half of human-caused {{CO2}} emissions have been absorbed by land plants and by the oceans.<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 16 June|2011|ps=: "So far, land plants and the ocean have taken up about 55 percent of the extra carbon people have put into the atmosphere while about 45 percent has stayed in the atmosphere. Eventually, the land and oceans will take up most of the extra carbon dioxide, but as much as 20 percent may remain in the atmosphere for many thousands of years."}}</ref> On land, elevated {{CO2}} and an extended growing season have stimulated plant growth. Climate change increases droughts and heat waves that inhibit plant growth, which makes it uncertain whether this carbon sink will continue to grow in the future.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|pp=133, 144}}.</ref> Soils contain large quantities of carbon and [[Soil carbon feedback|may release some when they heat up]].<ref>{{harvnb|Melillo|Frey|DeAngelis|Werner|2017}}: Our first-order estimate of a warming-induced loss of 190 Pg of soil carbon over the 21st century is equivalent to the past two decades of carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning.</ref> As more {{CO2}} and heat are absorbed by the ocean, it acidifies, its circulation changes and [[phytoplankton]] takes up less carbon, decreasing the rate at which the ocean absorbs atmospheric carbon.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=93–95}} Overall, at higher {{CO2}} concentrations the Earth will absorb a reduced fraction of our emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=TS-122|loc=Box TS.5, Figure 1}}</ref>
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| == Future warming and the carbon budget ==
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| {{Further|Carbon budget|Climate model|Climate change scenario}}
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| [[File:Projected Change in Temperatures by 2090.svg|upright=1.35|thumb|Projected global surface temperature changes relative to 1850–1900, based on [[Coupled Model Intercomparison Project#CMIP Phase 6|CMIP6]] multi-model mean changes.]]
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| A climate model is a representation of the physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect the climate system.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=120}}.</ref> Models are used to calculate the degree of warming future emissions will cause when accounting for the [[Climate sensitivity|strength of climate feedbacks]].<ref>{{harvnb|Wolff|Shepherd|Shuckburgh|Watson|2015}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#who "Who does climate modelling around the world?"]}}</ref> Models also include natural processes like changes in the Earth's orbit, historical changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#types "What are the different types of climate models?"]}}</ref> In addition to estimating future temperatures, they reproduce and predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#what "What is a climate model?"]}}</ref>
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| The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate contemporary or past climates.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch8|2007}}, FAQ 8.1.</ref> Past models have underestimated the rate of [[Arctic shrinkage]]<ref>{{harvnb|Stroeve|Holland|Meier|Scambos|2007}}; {{harvnb|National Geographic, 13 August|2019}}</ref> and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase.<ref>{{harvnb|Liepert|Previdi|2009}}.</ref> Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but more recent models agree well with observations.<ref>{{harvnb|Rahmstorf|Cazenave|Church|Hansen|2007}}; {{harvnb|Mitchum|Masters|Hamlington|Fasullo|2018}}</ref> The 2017 United States-published [[National Climate Assessment]] notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes".<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 15|2017}}.</ref>
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| A [[Integrated assessment modelling|subset of climate models]] add societal factors to a simple physical climate model. These models simulate how population, [[economic growth]], and energy use affect{{snd}}and interact with{{snd}}the physical climate. With this information, these models can produce scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. This is then used as input for physical climate models and carbon cycle models to predict how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#inout "What are the inputs and outputs for a climate model?"]}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Matthews|Gillett|Stott|Zickfeld|2009}}</ref> Depending on the [[Shared Socioeconomic Pathways|socioeconomic scenario]] and the mitigation scenario, models produce atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations that range widely between 380 and 1400 ppm.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 19 April|2018}}; {{harvnb|Meinshausen|2019|p=462}}.</ref>
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| The [[IPCC Sixth Assessment Report]] projects that global warming is very likely to reach 1.0 °C to 1.8 °C by the late 21st century under the [[Shared Socioeconomic Pathways#SSP1-1.9: Sustainability (Taking the Green Road)|very low GHG emissions scenario]]. In an [[Shared Socioeconomic Pathways#SSP2-4.5: Regional rivalry (A Rocky Road)|intermediate scenario]] global warming would reach 2.1 °C to 3.5 °C, and 3.3 °C to 5.7 °C under the [[Shared Socioeconomic Pathways#SSP5-8.5: Fossil-Fueled Development (Taking the Highway)|very high GHG emissions scenario]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|p=SPM-17}}</ref> These projections are based on climate models in combination with observations.{{Sfn|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=TS-30}}
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| The remaining [[carbon budget]] is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and the climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases.<ref>{{harvnb|Rogelj|Forster|Kriegler|Smith|2019}}</ref> According to the IPCC, global warming can be kept below 1.5 °C with a two-thirds chance if emissions after 2018 do not exceed 420 or 570 gigatonnes of {{CO2}}.{{Efn|This depends on how global temperature is defined. There is a small difference between air and surface temperatures.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=12}}|group=lower-alpha}} This corresponds to 10 to 13 years of current emissions. There are high uncertainties about the budget. For instance, it may be 100 gigatonnes of {{CO2}} smaller due to methane release from permafrost and wetlands.<ref name=":4">{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=12}}</ref> However, it is clear that fossil fuel resources are too abundant for shortages to be relied on to limit carbon emissions in the 21st century.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch5|2014|pp=379–380}}.</ref>
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| == Impacts ==
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| {{Main|Effects of climate change}}
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| [[File:Soil moisture and climate change.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|The sixth IPCC Assessment Report projects changes in average soil moisture that can disrupt agriculture and ecosystems. A reduction in soil moisture by one [[standard deviation]] means that average soil moisture will approximately match the ninth driest year between 1850 and 1900 at that location.]]
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| === Environmental effects ===
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| The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching, affecting oceans, ice, and weather. Changes may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for these effects comes from studying climate change in the past, from modelling, and from modern observations.<ref>{{harvnb|Hansen|Sato|Hearty|Ruedy|2016}}; {{harvnb|Smithsonian, 26 June|2016}}.</ref> Since the 1950s, [[drought]]s and [[heat wave]]s have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency.<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 15|2017|p=415}}.</ref> Extremely wet or dry events within the [[monsoon]] period have increased in India and East Asia.<ref>{{harvnb|Scientific American, 29 April|2014}}; {{harvnb|Burke|Stott|2017}}.</ref> The rainfall rate and intensity of [[Tropical cyclones and climate change|hurricanes and typhoons is likely increasing]].<ref name=":0">{{Harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 9|2017|p=260}}.</ref> Frequency of tropical cyclones has not increased as a result of climate change.<ref>{{cite web |title=Hurricanes and Climate Change |url=https://www.c2es.org/content/hurricanes-and-climate-change/ |website=Center for Climate and Energy Solutions|date=10 July 2020 }}</ref> However, a study review article published in 2021 in ''[[Nature Geoscience]]'' concluded that the geographic range of tropical cyclones will probably expand poleward in response to climate warming of the [[Hadley circulation]].<ref>{{cite journal|first1=Joshua|last1=Studholme|first2=Alexey V.|last2=Fedorov |first3=Sergey K.|last3=Gulev|first4=Kerry|last4=Emanuel|first5=Kevin|last5=Hodges |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00859-1|title=Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates|date=December 29, 2021|journal=[[Nature Geoscience]]|volume=15|pages=14–28|doi=10.1038/s41561-021-00859-1|s2cid=245540084}}</ref>
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| [[File:Sea level history and projections.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Historical sea level reconstruction and projections up to 2100 published in 2017 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program<ref>{{harvnb|NOAA|2017}}.</ref>]]
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| [[Sea level rise|Global sea level is rising]] as a consequence of [[Retreat of glaciers since 1850|glacial melt]], melt of the [[ice sheet]]s in [[Greenland ice sheet|Greenland]] and [[Antarctic ice sheet|Antarctica]], and thermal expansion. Between 1993 and 2020, the rise increased over time, averaging 3.3 ± 0.3 mm per year.<ref>{{harvnb|WMO|2021|p=12}}.</ref> Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects that in a very high emissions scenario the sea level could rise by 61–110 cm.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch4|2019|p=324}}: GMSL (global mean sea level, red) will rise between 0.43 m (0.29–0.59 m, likely range) (RCP2.6) and 0.84 m (0.61–1.10 m, likely range) (RCP8.5) by 2100 (medium confidence) relative to 1986–2005.</ref> Increased ocean warmth is undermining and threatening to unplug Antarctic glacier outlets, risking a large melt of the ice sheet<ref>{{harvnb|DeConto|Pollard|2016}}.</ref> and the possibility of a 2-meter sea level rise by 2100 under high emissions.{{sfn|Bamber|Oppenheimer|Kopp|Aspinall|2019}}
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| Climate change has led to decades of [[Arctic sea ice decline|shrinking and thinning of the Arctic sea ice]].<ref>{{harvnb|Zhang|Lindsay|Steele|Schweiger|2008}}</ref> While ice-free summers are expected to be rare at 1.5 °C degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten years at a warming level of 2 °C.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=18}}</ref> Higher atmospheric {{CO2}} concentrations have led to changes in [[ocean chemistry]]. An increase in dissolved {{CO2}} is causing [[ocean acidification|oceans to acidify]].<ref>{{Harvnb|Doney|Fabry|Feely|Kleypas|2009}}.</ref> In addition, [[ocean deoxygenation|oxygen levels are decreasing]] as oxygen is less soluble in warmer water.<ref>{{harvnb|Deutsch|Brix|Ito|Frenzel|2011}}</ref> [[Dead zone (ecology)|Dead zones]] in the ocean, regions with very little oxygen, are expanding too.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=510}}; {{cite web |title=Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms |date=5 September 2013 |url=https://www.epa.gov/nutrientpollution/climate-change-and-harmful-algal-blooms |publisher=EPA |access-date=11 September 2020}}</ref>
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| ==== Tipping points and long-term impacts ====
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| <!-- Warning: you might be tempted to bump this up a level to a sub-heading 1 but this is UNDUE compared to IPCC (see talk page discussion in May 2022)-->
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| The greater the amount of global warming, the greater the risk of passing through ‘[[Tipping points in the climate system|tipping points]]’, thresholds beyond which certain impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures are reduced.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=283}}.</ref> An example is the collapse of [[Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet|West Antarctic]] and Greenland ice sheets, where a temperature rise of 1.5 to 2 °C may commit the ice sheets to melt, although the time scale of melt is uncertain and depends on future warming.<ref name=NESSC2018>{{cite web|url=https://www.nessc.nl/tipping-points-ice-sheets/|title=Tipping points in Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets|date=12 November 2018|website=NESSC|access-date=25 February 2019}}</ref><ref name="SR15">{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=7}}</ref> Some large-scale changes could occur [[abrupt climate change|over a short time period]], such as a [[Shutdown of thermohaline circulation|collapse]] of certain [[ocean current]]s. Of particular concern is a shutdown of the [[Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation]],<ref name="ccsp abrupt climate change">{{harvnb|Clark|Weaver|Brook|Cook|2008}}</ref> which would trigger major climate changes in the North Atlantic, Europe, and North America.<ref>{{harvnb|Liu|Xie|Liu|Zhu|2017}}.</ref>
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| The [[long-term effects of climate change]] include further ice melt, ocean warming, sea level rise, and ocean acidification.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|p=21}}</ref> On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the magnitude of climate change will be determined primarily by anthropogenic {{CO2}} emissions. This is due to {{CO2}}'s long atmospheric lifetime.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|pp=88–89|loc=FAQ 12.3}}</ref> Oceanic {{CO2}} uptake is slow enough that ocean acidification will continue for hundreds to thousands of years.{{sfn|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|p=1112}} These emissions are estimated to have prolonged the current [[interglacial]] period by at least 100,000 years.<ref>{{harvnb|Crucifix|2016}}</ref> Sea level rise will continue over many centuries, with an estimated rise of {{convert|2.3|m/C|ft/F}} after 2000 years.<ref>{{harvnb|Smith|Schneider|Oppenheimer|Yohe|2009}}; {{harvnb|Levermann|Clark|Marzeion|Milne|2013}}</ref>
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| ===Nature and wildlife===
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| <!-- Warning: Do not change the above title without also changing places where the gallery below is transcluded (this article summary, and effects of climate change article) -->
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| {{Main||Climate change and ecosystems}}
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| Recent warming has driven many terrestrial and freshwater species poleward and towards higher [[altitudes]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=218}}.</ref> Higher atmospheric {{CO2}} levels and an extended growing season have resulted in global greening. However, heatwaves and drought have reduced [[ecosystem]] productivity in some regions. The future balance of these opposing effects is unclear.{{Sfn|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|p=133}} Climate change has contributed to the expansion of drier climate zones, such as the [[Desertification|expansion of deserts]] in the [[subtropics]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=7}}; {{harvnb|Zeng|Yoon|2009}}.</ref> The size and speed of global warming is making [[Ecological threshold|abrupt changes in ecosystems]] more likely.{{Sfn|Turner|Calder|Cumming|Hughes|2020|p=1}} Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the [[extinction]] of many species.{{Sfn|Urban|2015}}
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| The oceans have heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have migrated towards the colder poles faster than species on land.<ref>{{harvnb|Poloczanska|Brown|Sydeman|Kiessling|2013}}; {{harvnb|Lenoir|Bertrand|Comte|Bourgeaud|2020}}</ref> Just as on land, heat waves in the ocean occur more frequently due to climate change, harming a wide range of organisms such as corals, [[kelp]], and [[seabirds]].<ref>{{harvnb|Smale|Wernberg|Oliver|Thomsen|2019}}</ref> Ocean acidification makes it harder for organisms such as mussels, barnacles and corals to [[Biomineralization|produce shells and skeletons]]; and heatwaves have [[Coral bleaching|bleached coral reefs]].{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=13}} [[Harmful algal blooms]] enhanced by climate change and [[eutrophication]] lower oxygen levels, disrupt [[food web]]s and cause great loss of marine life.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=510}}</ref> Coastal ecosystems are under particular stress. Almost half of global wetlands have disappeared due to climate change and other human impacts.{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=451}}
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| {| class="center toccolours"
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| |+ '''Climate change impacts on the environment'''
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| |<gallery mode="packed" heights="120" style="line-height:120%">
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| File:Bleachedcoral.jpg|alt=Underwater photograph of branching coral that is bleached white|[[Ecological collapse]]. Bleaching has damaged the [[Great Barrier Reef]] and threatens reefs worldwide.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://sos.noaa.gov/datasets/coral-reef-risk-outlook/|title=Coral Reef Risk Outlook|access-date=4 April 2020|publisher=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]]|quote=At present, local human activities, coupled with past thermal stress, threaten an estimated 75 percent of the world's reefs. By 2030, estimates predict more than 90% of the world's reefs will be threatened by local human activities, warming, and acidification, with nearly 60% facing high, very high, or critical threat levels.}}</ref>
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| File:Orroral Valley Fire viewed from Tuggeranong January 2020.jpg|alt=Photograph of evening in a valley settlement. The skyline in the hills beyond is lit up red from the fires.|[[Extreme weather]]. Drought and high temperatures worsened the [[2019–20 Australian bushfire season#Climate change|2020 bushfires in Australia]].<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 7 January|2020}}.</ref>
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| File:National Park Service Thawing permafrost (27759123542).jpg|alt=The green landscape is interrupted by a huge muddy scar where the ground has subsided.|[[Climate change in the Arctic|Arctic warming]]. [[Permafrost#Climate change effects|Permafrost thaws]] undermine infrastructure and [[Arctic methane emissions|release methane]], a greenhouse gas.<ref name="Turetsky 2019"/>
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| File:Endangered arctic - starving polar bear edit.jpg|alt=An emaciated polar bear stands atop the remains of a melting ice floe.|[[Habitat destruction]]. Many arctic animals rely on sea ice, which has been disappearing in a warming Arctic.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch28|2014|p=1596|ps=: "Within 50 to 70 years, loss of hunting habitats may lead to elimination of polar bears from seasonally ice-covered areas, where two-thirds of their world population currently live."}}</ref>
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| File:Mountain Pine Beetle damage in the Fraser Experimental Forest 2007.jpg|alt=Photograph of a large area of forest. The green trees are interspersed with large patches of damaged or dead trees turning purple-brown and light red.|[[Climate change and invasive species|Pest propagation]]. Mild winters allow more [[mountain pine beetle|pine beetles]] to survive to kill large swaths of forest.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.nps.gov/romo/learn/nature/climatechange.htm|title=What a changing climate means for Rocky Mountain National Park|publisher=[[National Park Service]]|access-date=9 April 2020}}</ref>
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| </gallery>
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| |}
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| === Humans ===
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| <!-- Warning: Do not change the above title without also changing places where the gallery below is transcluded (this article summary, and effects of climate change article) -->
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| {{Main|Effects of climate change}}
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| {{Further|Effects of climate change on human health|Climate security|Economics of climate change|Effects of climate change on agriculture}}
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| [[File:20211109 Frequency of extreme weather for different degrees of global warming - bar chart IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM.svg|thumb|upright=1.35 |The [[IPCC Sixth Assessment Report]] (2021) projects that [[extreme weather]] will be progressively more common as the Earth warms.<ref name=IPCC6AR_ExtremeEvents>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|loc=Fig. SPM.6, page=SPM-23}}</ref>]]
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| The [[effects of climate change]] on humans have been observed worldwide. They are mostly due to warming and shifts in [[precipitation]]. Impacts can now be observed [[Regional effects of climate change|on all continents]] and ocean regions,<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch18|2014|pp=983, 1008}}</ref> with low-latitude, [[Developing countries|less developed areas]] facing the greatest risk.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch19|2014|p=1077}}.</ref> Continued warming has potentially “severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts” for people and ecosystems.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=SPM 2|p=8}}</ref> The risks are unevenly distributed, but are generally greater for disadvantaged people in developing and developed countries.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=SPM 2.3|p=13}}</ref>
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| ==== Food and health ====
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| The WHO has classified climate change as the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.<ref>{{harvnb|WHO, Nov|2015}}</ref> Extreme weather leads to injury and loss of life,<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch11|2014|pp=720–723}}</ref> and [[crop failure]]s to [[undernutrition]].<ref>{{harvnb|Costello|Abbas|Allen|Ball|2009}}; {{harvnb|Watts|Adger|Agnolucci|Blackstock|2015}}; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch11|2014|p=713}}</ref> Various [[infectious diseases]] are more easily transmitted in a warmer climate, such as [[dengue fever]] and [[malaria]].{{Sfn|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|pp=1836, 1848}} Young children are the most vulnerable to food shortages. Both children and older people are vulnerable to extreme heat.{{Sfn|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|pp=1841, 1847}} The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated that between 2030 and 2050, climate change would cause around 250,000 additional deaths per year. They assessed deaths from heat exposure in elderly people, increases in [[diarrhea]], malaria, dengue, [[coastal flooding]], and childhood undernutrition.<ref>{{harvnb|WHO|2014}}</ref> Over 500,000 more adult deaths are projected yearly by 2050 due to reductions in food availability and quality.<ref>{{harvnb|Springmann|Mason-D’Croz|Robinson|Garnett|2016|p=2}}; {{harvnb|Haines|Ebi|2019}}</ref>
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| Climate change is affecting [[food security]]. It has caused reduction in global yields of maize, wheat, and soybeans between 1981 and 2010.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=451}}.</ref> Future warming could further reduce global yields of major crops.<ref>{{harvnb|Zhao|Liu|Piao|Wang|2017}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=439}}</ref> [[crop productivity|Crop production]] will probably be negatively affected in low-latitude countries, while effects at northern latitudes may be positive or negative.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch7|2014|p=488}}</ref> Up to an additional 183 million people worldwide, particularly those with lower incomes, are at risk of [[hunger]] as a consequence of these impacts.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=462}}</ref> Climate change also impacts fish populations. Globally, less will be available to be fished.{{sfn|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=503}} Regions dependent on glacier water, regions that are already dry, and small islands have a higher risk of water stress due to climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|Holding|Allen|Foster|Hsieh|2016}}; {{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch3|2014|pp=232–233}}.</ref>
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| ==== Livelihoods ====
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| Economic damages due to climate change may be severe and there is a chance of disastrous consequences.<ref>{{harvnb|DeFries|Edenhofer|Halliday|Heal|2019|p=3}}; {{harvnb|Krogstrup|Oman|2019|p=10}}.</ref> Climate change has likely already increased global economic inequality, and this trend is projected to continue.<ref>{{harvnb|Diffenbaugh|Burke|2019}}; {{harvnb|The Guardian, 26 January|2015}}; {{harvnb|Burke|Davis|Diffenbaugh|2018}}.</ref> Most of the severe impacts are expected [[Climate change in Africa|in sub-Saharan Africa]], where most of the local inhabitants are dependent upon natural and agricultural resources<ref name=":8">{{Cite book |url=https://doi.org/10.4060/cb7431en |title=Women's leadership and gender equality in climate action and disaster risk reduction in Africa − A call for action |publisher=FAO & The African Risk Capacity (ARC) Group |year=2021 |isbn=978-92-5-135234-2 |location=Accra |doi=10.4060/cb7431en |s2cid=243488592}}</ref>''',''' and South-East Asia.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014|pp=796–797}}</ref> The [[World Bank]] estimates that climate change could drive over 120 million people into poverty by 2030.{{Sfn|Hallegatte|Bangalore|Bonzanigo|Fay|2016|p=12}}
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| Current inequalities based on wealth and social status have worsened due to climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014|p=796}}.</ref> Major difficulties in mitigating, adapting, and recovering to climate shocks are faced by marginalized people who have less control over resources.<ref name=":7">Grabe, Grose and Dutt, 2014; FAO, 2011; FAO, 2021a; Fisher and Carr, 2015; IPCC, 2014; Resurrección et al., 2019; UNDRR, 2019; Yeboah et al., 2019.</ref><ref name=":8" /> [[Indigenous people]], who are subsistent on their land and ecosystems, will face endangerment to their wellness and lifestyles due to climate change.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Climate Change {{!}} United Nations For Indigenous Peoples |url=https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/climate-change.html |access-date=2022-04-29 |website=United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs}}</ref> An expert elicitation concluded that the role of climate change in [[armed conflict]] has been small compared to factors such as socio-economic inequality and state capabilities.{{Sfn|Mach|Kraan|Adger|Buhaug|2019}}
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| Low-lying islands and coastal communities are threatened by sea level rise, which makes flooding more common. Sometimes, land is permanently lost to the sea.{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Ch4|2019|p=328}} This could lead to [[statelessness]] for people in island nations, such as the [[Maldives]] and [[Tuvalu]].<ref>{{harvnb|UNHCR|2011|p=3}}.</ref> In some regions, the rise in temperature and humidity may be too severe for humans to adapt to.{{sfn|Matthews|2018|p=399}} With worst-case climate change, models project that almost one-third of humanity might live in extremely hot and uninhabitable climates, similar to the current climate found in the Sahara.<ref>{{harvnb|Balsari|Dresser|Leaning|2020}}</ref> These factors can drive [[Environmental migrant|environmental migration]], both within and between countries.<ref name="auto3"/> More people are expected to be displaced because of sea level rise, extreme weather and conflict from increased competition over natural resources. Climate change may also increase vulnerability, leading to "trapped populations" who are not able to move due to a lack of resources.<ref>{{harvnb|Flavell|2014|p=38}}; {{harvnb|Kaczan|Orgill-Meyer|2020}}</ref>
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| {| class="center toccolours"
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| |+ '''Climate change impacts on people'''
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| |<gallery mode="packed" heights="120" style="line-height:120%">
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| File:Village Telly in Mali.jpg|[[Environmental migrant|Environmental migration]]. Sparser rainfall leads to [[desertification]] that harms agriculture and can displace populations. Shown: Telly, Mali (2008).<ref>{{harvnb|Serdeczny|Adams|Baarsch|Coumou|2016}}.</ref>
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| File:Corn shows the affect of drought.jpg|[[Effects of climate change on agriculture|Agricultural changes]]. Droughts, rising temperatures, and extreme weather negatively impact agriculture. Shown: Texas, US (2013).<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|pp=439, 464}}.</ref>
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| File:Acqua alta in Piazza San Marco-original.jpg|[[Tidal flooding]]. Sea-level rise increases flooding in low-lying coastal regions. Shown: [[Venice#Flooding|Venice, Italy]] (2004).<ref name="NOAAnuisance">{{cite web|url=http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/nuisance-flooding.html |title=What is nuisance flooding? |author=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]] |access-date=April 8, 2020}}</ref>
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| File:US Navy 071120-M-8966H-005 An aerial view over southern Bangladesh reveals extensive flooding as a result of Cyclone Sidr.jpg|[[Tropical cyclones and climate change|Storm intensification]]. Bangladesh after [[Cyclone Sidr]] (2007) is an example of catastrophic flooding from increased rainfall.<ref>{{harvnb|Kabir|Khan|Ball|Caldwell|2016}}.</ref>
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| File:The heat is on ESA19461898.jpeg|Heat wave intensification. Events like the [[June 2019 European heat wave]] are becoming more common.<ref>{{harvnb|Van Oldenborgh|Philip|Kew|Vautard|2019}}.</ref>
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| </gallery>
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| |}
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| == Reducing and recapturing emissions ==
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| {{main|Climate change mitigation}}
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| [[File:Greenhouse gas emission scenarios 01.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|left|Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions. If all countries achieve their current Paris Agreement pledges, average warming by 2100 would still significantly exceed the maximum 2 °C target set by the Agreement.]]
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| Climate change can be mitigated by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and by enhancing [[Carbon sink|sinks]] that absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=125}}.</ref> In order to limit global warming to less than 1.5 °C with a high likelihood of success, global greenhouse gas emissions needs to be [[Carbon neutrality|net-zero]] by 2050, or by 2070 with a 2 °C target.<ref name=":4"/> This requires far-reaching, systemic changes on an unprecedented scale in energy, land, cities, transport, buildings, and industry.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=15}}</ref> The [[United Nations Environment Programme]] estimates that countries need to triple their [[Nationally Determined Contributions|pledges under the Paris Agreement]] within the next decade to limit global warming to 2 °C. An even greater level of reduction is required to meet the 1.5 °C goal.<ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|p=XX}}</ref> With pledges made under the Agreement as of October 2021, global warming would still have a 66% chance of reaching about 2.7 °C (range: 2.2–3.2 °C) by the end of the century.<ref name="UNEP2021" />
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| Although there is no single pathway to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C,<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=109}}.</ref> most scenarios and strategies see a major increase in the use of renewable energy in combination with increased energy efficiency measures to generate the needed greenhouse gas reductions.<ref name="Teske, ed. 2019 xxiii" /> To reduce pressures on ecosystems and enhance their carbon sequestration capabilities, changes would also be necessary in agriculture and forestry,<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}}</ref> such as preventing [[deforestation]] and restoring natural ecosystems by [[reforestation]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=266|ps=: Where reforestation is the restoration of natural ecosystems, it benefits both carbon sequestration and conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services.}}</ref>
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| Other approaches to mitigating climate change have a higher level of risk. Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C typically project the large-scale use of [[carbon dioxide removal|carbon dioxide removal methods]] over the 21st century.<ref>{{harvnb|Bui|Adjiman|Bardow|Anthony|2018|p=1068}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=17}}</ref> There are concerns, though, about over-reliance on these technologies, and environmental impacts.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|p=34}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=17}}</ref> [[Solar radiation management]] (SRM) is also a possible supplement to deep reductions in emissions. However, SRM would raise significant ethical and legal issues, and the risks are poorly understood.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=347–352}}</ref>
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| === Clean energy ===
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| {{Main|Sustainable energy|Sustainable transport}}
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| [[File:Global Energy Consumption.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Coal, oil, and natural gas remain the primary global energy sources even as [[Renewable energy|renewables]] have begun rapidly increasing.<ref>{{harvnb|Friedlingstein|Jones|O'Sullivan|Andrew|2019}}</ref>]]
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| [[File:Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Economic sectors with more greenhouse gas contributions have a greater stake in climate change policies.]]
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| Renewable energy is key to limiting climate change.<ref name="United Nations Environment Programme 2019 46" /> Fossil fuels accounted for 80% of the world's energy in 2018. The remaining share was split between [[nuclear power]] and renewables (including [[hydropower]], [[Biomass|bioenergy]], [[wind power|wind]] and [[solar power]] and [[geothermal energy]]).<ref>{{harvnb|REN21|2020|p=32|loc=Fig.1}}.</ref> That mix is projected to change significantly over the next 30 years.<ref name="Teske, ed. 2019 xxiii">{{harvnb|Teske, ed.|2019|p=xxiii}}.</ref> [[Photovoltaic system|Solar panels]] and [[Wind power|onshore wind]] are now among the cheapest forms of adding new power generation capacity in many locations.<ref>{{harvnb|Our World in Data-Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?}}; {{harvnb| IEA - Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2020}}</ref> Renewables represented 75% of all new electricity generation installed in 2019, nearly all solar and wind.<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 6 April|2020}}.</ref> Other forms of clean energy, such as nuclear and hydropower, currently have a larger share of the energy supply. However, their future growth forecasts appear limited in comparison.<ref>{{harvnb|IEA|2021|p=57, Fig 2.5}}; {{harvnb|Teske|Pregger|Naegler|Simon|2019|p=180, Table 8.1}}</ref>
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| To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, renewable energy would become the dominant form of electricity generation, rising to 85% or more by 2050 in some scenarios. Investment in coal would be eliminated and coal use nearly phased out by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|loc=Figure 2.15|p=131}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Teske|2019|pp=409–410}}.</ref>
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| Electricity would also need to become the main energy source for heating and transport.<ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Table ES.3|p=XXIII}}; {{harvnb|Teske, ed.|2019|p=xxvii, Fig.5}}.</ref>
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| In transport, emissions can be reduced fast by a switch to [[electric vehicle]]s.<ref name=":6">{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=142–144}}; {{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Table ES.3 & p. 49}}</ref> Public transport and [[Active mobility|active transport]] (cycling and walking) also produce less {{CO2}}.<ref>{{Cite web|date=2016|title=Transport emissions|url=https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/transport-emissions_en|access-date=2022-01-02|website=Climate action|publisher=European Commission |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211010225533/https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/transport-emissions_en|archive-date=2021-10-10|url-status=live}}</ref> For shipping and flying, low-carbon fuels can be used to reduce emissions.<ref name=":6" /> Heating would be increasingly decarbonised with technologies like [[heat pump]]s.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch9|2014|p=697}}; {{harvnb|NREL|2017|pp=vi, 12}}</ref>
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| There are obstacles to the continued rapid growth of clean energy, including renewables. For wind and solar, there are environmental and land use concerns for new projects.<ref>{{harvnb|Berrill|Arvesen|Scholz|Gils|2016}}.</ref> Wind and solar also produce energy [[Variable renewable energy|intermittently and with seasonal variability]]. Traditionally, [[Pumped-storage hydroelectricity|hydro dams with reservoirs]] and conventional power plants have been used when variable energy production is low. Going forward, [[Battery storage power station|battery storage]] can be expanded, [[Demand response|energy demand and supply]] can be matched, and long-distance [[Electric power transmission|transmission]] can smooth variability of renewable outputs.<ref name="United Nations Environment Programme 2019 46">{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|p=46}}; {{harvnb|Vox, 20 September|2019}}; {{cite journal|title=The Role of Firm Low-Carbon Electricity Resources in Deep Decarbonization of Power Generation |year=2018|last1=Sepulveda |first1=Nestor A.|last2=Jenkins|first2=Jesse D.|last3=De Sisternes|first3=Fernando J. |last4=Lester|first4=Richard K.|journal=Joule|volume=2|issue=11 |pages=2403–2420|doi=10.1016/j.joule.2018.08.006|doi-access=free}}</ref> Bioenergy is often not carbon-neutral and may have negative consequences for food security.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=324–325}}.</ref> The growth of [[nuclear power]] is constrained by controversy around [[nuclear waste]], [[nuclear proliferation|nuclear weapon proliferation]], and [[Nuclear accident|accidents]].<ref>{{Citec|last1=Gill |first1=Matthew|last2=Livens|first2=Francis|last3=Peakman|first3=Aiden|in=Letcher|year=2020|pages=147–149 |chapter=Nuclear Fission}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Horvath |first1=Akos |last2=Rachlew |first2=Elisabeth |date=January 2016 |title=Nuclear power in the 21st century: Challenges and possibilities |journal=Ambio |volume=45 |issue=Suppl 1 |pages=S38–49 |doi=10.1007/s13280-015-0732-y |issn=1654-7209 |pmc=4678124 |pmid=26667059}}</ref> Hydropower growth is limited by the fact that the best sites have been developed, and new projects are confronting increased social and environmental concerns.<ref>{{cite web |title=Hydropower |url=https://www.iea.org/reports/hydropower |website=iea.org |publisher=International Energy Agency |access-date=12 October 2020 |quote=Hydropower generation is estimated to have increased by over 2% in 2019 owing to continued recovery from drought in Latin America as well as strong capacity expansion and good water availability in China (...) capacity expansion has been losing speed. This downward trend is expected to continue, due mainly to less large-project development in China and Brazil, where concerns over social and environmental impacts have restricted projects.}}</ref>
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| [[Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of energy sources|Low-carbon energy]] improves human health by minimising climate change. It also has the near-term benefit of reducing air pollution deaths,<ref>{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=1854}}; {{harvnb|WHO|2018|p=27}}</ref> which were estimated at 7 million annually in 2016.<ref>{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=1837}}; {{harvnb|WHO|2016}}</ref> Meeting the Paris Agreement goals that limit warming to a 2 °C increase could save about a million of those lives per year by 2050, whereas limiting global warming to 1.5 °C could save millions and simultaneously increase [[energy security]] and reduce poverty.<ref>{{harvnb|WHO|2018|p=27}}; {{harvnb|Vandyck|Keramidas|Kitous|Spadaro|2018}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|p=97}}: "Limiting warming to 1.5 °C can be achieved synergistically with poverty alleviation and improved energy security and can provide large public health benefits through improved air quality, preventing millions of premature deaths. However, specific mitigation measures, such as bioenergy, may result in trade-offs that require consideration."</ref>
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| === Energy conservation ===
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| {{Main|Efficient energy use|Energy conservation}}
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| Reducing energy demand is another major aspect of reducing emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=97}}</ref> If less energy is needed, there is more flexibility for clean energy development. It also makes it easier to manage the electricity grid, and minimises [[emission intensity|carbon-intensive]] infrastructure development.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|p=29}}; {{harvnb|IEA|2020b}}</ref> Major increases in energy efficiency investment will be required to achieve climate goals, comparable to the level of investment in renewable energy.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=155|loc=Fig. 2.27}}</ref> Several COVID-19 related changes in energy use patterns, energy efficiency investments, and funding have made forecasts for this decade more difficult and uncertain.<ref>{{harvnb|IEA|2020b}}</ref>
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| Strategies to reduce energy demand vary by sector. In transport, passengers and freight can switch to more efficient travel modes, such as buses and trains, or use electric vehicles.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=142}}</ref> Industrial strategies to reduce energy demand include improving heating systems and motors, designing less energy-intensive products, and increasing product lifetimes.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=138–140}}</ref> In the building sector the focus is on better design of new buildings, and higher levels of energy efficiency in retrofitting.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=141–142}}</ref> The use of technologies like [[heat pump]]s can also increase building energy efficiency.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch9|2014|pp=686–694}}.</ref>
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| === Agriculture and industry ===
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| {{See also|Sustainable agriculture|Green industrial policy}}
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| Agriculture and forestry face a triple challenge of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, preventing the further conversion of forests to agricultural land, and meeting increases in world food demand.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, December|2019|p=1}}</ref> A set of actions could reduce agriculture and forestry-based emissions by two thirds from 2010 levels. These include reducing growth in demand for food and other agricultural products, increasing land productivity, protecting and restoring forests, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, December|2019|pp=1, 3}}</ref>
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| On the demand side, a key component of reducing emissions is shifting people towards [[plant-based diets]].<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019|p=22|loc=B.6.2}}</ref> Eliminating the production of livestock for [[Environmental impact of meat production|meat and dairy]] would eliminate about 3/4ths of all emissions from agriculture and other land use.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|pp=487,488|loc=FIGURE 5.12}} Humans on a vegan exclusive diet would save about 7.9 Gt{{CO2}} equivalent per year by 2050 {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=51}} Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use used an average of 12 Gt{{CO2}} per year between 2007 and 2016 (23% of total anthropogenic emissions).</ref> Livestock also occupy 37% of ice-free land area on Earth and consume feed from the 12% of land area used for crops, driving deforestation and land degradation.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|pp=82, 162|loc=FIGURE 1.1}}</ref>
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| Steel and cement production are responsible for about 13% of industrial {{CO2}} emissions. In these industries, carbon-intensive materials such as coke and lime play an integral role in the production, so that reducing {{CO2}} emissions requires research into alternative chemistries.<ref>{{cite web|title=Low and zero emissions in the steel and cement industries|url=https://www.oecd.org/greengrowth/GGSD2019_IssuePaper_CementSteel.pdf|pages=11, 19–22}}</ref>
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| === Carbon sequestration ===
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| {{Main|Carbon dioxide removal|Carbon sequestration}}
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| [[File:Carbon Dioxide Partitioning.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Most {{CO2}} emissions have been absorbed by carbon sinks, including plant growth, soil uptake, and ocean uptake ([[Global Carbon Project#Global Carbon Budget|2020 Global Carbon Budget]]).]]
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| Natural carbon sinks can be enhanced to sequester significantly larger amounts of {{CO2}} beyond naturally occurring levels.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}}: {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|pp=189–193}}.</ref> Reforestation and [[Afforestation|tree planting on non-forest lands]] are among the most mature sequestration techniques, although the latter raises food security concerns.<ref>{{harvnb|Kreidenweis|Humpenöder|Stevanović|Bodirsky|2016}}</ref> Farmers can promote sequestration of [[Carbon farming|carbon in soils]] through practices such as use of winter [[cover crops]], reducing the intensity and frequency of [[tillage]], and using compost and manure as soil amendments.<ref>{{harvnb|National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine|2019|pp=95–102}}</ref> Restoration/recreation of coastal wetlands and seagrass meadows increases the uptake of carbon into organic matter ([[blue carbon]]).<ref>{{harvnb|National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine|2019|pp=45–54}}</ref> When carbon is sequestered in soils and in organic matter such as trees, there is a risk of the carbon being re-released into the atmosphere later through changes in land use, fire, or other changes in ecosystems.<ref>{{harvnb|Ruseva|Hedrick|Marland|Tovar|2020}}</ref>
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| Where energy production or {{CO2}}-intensive [[heavy industry|heavy industries]] continue to produce waste {{CO2}}, the gas can be captured and stored instead of released to the atmosphere. Although its current use is limited in scale and expensive,<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=326–327}}; {{harvnb|Bednar|Obersteiner|Wagner|2019}}; {{harvnb|European Commission, 28 November|2018|p=188}}</ref> [[carbon capture and storage]] (CCS) may be able to play a significant role in limiting {{CO2}} emissions by mid-century.{{Sfn|Bui|Adjiman|Bardow|Anthony|2018|p=1068}} This technique, in combination with bio-energy (BECCS) can result in net negative emissions: {{CO2}} is drawn from the atmosphere.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=125}}; {{harvnb|Bednar|Obersteiner|Wagner|2019}}.</ref> It remains highly uncertain whether carbon dioxide removal techniques, such as BECCS, will be able to play a large role in limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Policy decisions that rely on carbon dioxide removal increase the risk of global warming rising beyond international goals.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|p=34}}</ref>
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| == Adapting to a changing climate ==
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| {{main|Climate change adaptation}}
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| Adaptation is "the process of adjustment to current or expected changes in climate and its effects".{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=396–397}} Without additional mitigation, adaptation cannot avert the risk of "severe, widespread and irreversible" impacts.{{sfn|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=17}} More severe climate change requires more transformative adaptation, which can be prohibitively expensive.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=396–397}} The [[Adaptive capacity|capacity and potential for humans to adapt]] is unevenly distributed across different regions and populations, and developing countries generally have less.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch19|2007|p=796}}.</ref> The first two decades of the 21st century saw an increase in adaptive capacity in most low- and middle-income countries with improved access to basic [[sanitation]] and electricity, but progress is slow. Many countries have implemented adaptation policies. However, there is a considerable gap between necessary and available finance.{{sfn|UNEP|2018|pp=xii–xiii}}
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| Adaptation to sea level rise consists of avoiding at-risk areas, learning to live with increased flooding and protection. If that fails, [[managed retreat]] may be needed.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Stephens |first1=Scott A |last2=Bell|first2=Robert G|last3=Lawrence|first3=Judy|date=2018|title=Developing signals to trigger adaptation to sea-level rise|journal=Environmental Research Letters|volume=13|issue=10|at=104004 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/aadf96 |bibcode=2018ERL....13j4004S|issn=1748-9326|doi-access=free}}</ref> There are economic barriers for tackling dangerous heat impact. Avoiding strenuous work or having [[air conditioning]] is not possible for everybody.{{sfn|Matthews|2018|p=402}} In agriculture, adaptation options include a switch to more sustainable diets, diversification, erosion control and genetic improvements for increased tolerance to a changing climate.{{sfn|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=439}} Insurance allows for risk-sharing, but is often difficult to get for people on lower incomes.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Surminski |first1=Swenja|last2=Bouwer|first2=Laurens M.|last3=Linnerooth-Bayer|first3=Joanne |date=2016|title=How insurance can support climate resilience|url=https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2979|journal=Nature Climate Change|volume=6|issue=4|pages=333–334|doi=10.1038/nclimate2979|bibcode=2016NatCC...6..333S |issn=1758-6798}}</ref> Education, migration and [[early warning system]]s can reduce climate vulnerability.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=336-337}}
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| [[Climate change and ecosystems|Ecosystems adapt to climate change]], a process that can be supported by human intervention. By increasing connectivity between ecosystems, species can migrate to more favourable climate conditions. Species can also be [[Assisted migration|introduced to areas acquiring a favorable climate]]. Protection and restoration of natural and semi-natural areas helps build resilience, making it easier for ecosystems to adapt. Many of the actions that promote adaptation in ecosystems, also help humans adapt via [[ecosystem-based adaptation]]. For instance, restoration of [[Fire regime|natural fire regimes]] makes catastrophic fires less likely, and reduces human exposure. Giving rivers more space allows for more water storage in the natural system, reducing flood risk. Restored forest acts as a carbon sink, but planting trees in unsuitable regions can exacerbate climate impacts.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Morecroft |first1=Michael D.|last2=Duffield|first2=Simon|last3=Harley|first3=Mike|last4=Pearce-Higgins|first4=James W.|last5=Stevens|first5=Nicola|last6=Watts|first6=Olly|last7=Whitaker|first7=Jeanette|display-authors=4 |date=2019|title=Measuring the success of climate change adaptation and mitigation in terrestrial ecosystems|journal=Science|volume=366|issue=6471|page=eaaw9256|doi=10.1126/science.aaw9256|issn=0036-8075 |pmid=31831643 |s2cid=209339286|doi-access=free}}</ref>
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| There are [[Synergy|synergies]] and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. Adaptation often offer short-term benefits, whereas mitigation has longer-term benefits.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Berry|first1=Pam M. |last2=Brown |first2=Sally|last3=Chen|first3=Minpeng|last4=Kontogianni|first4=Areti|last5=Rowlands |first5=Olwen|last6=Simpson|first6=Gillian|last7=Skourtos|first7=Michalis|display-authors=4|date=2015 |title=Cross-sectoral interactions of adaptation and mitigation measures|url=https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1214-0|journal=Climatic Change|volume=128|issue=3|pages=381–393|bibcode=2015ClCh..128..381B |doi=10.1007/s10584-014-1214-0|issn=1573-1480|s2cid=153904466}}</ref> Increased use of air conditioning allows people to better cope with heat, but increases energy demand. Compact [[Urban planning|urban development]] may lead to reduced emissions from transport and construction. At the same time, it may increase the [[urban heat island]] effect, leading to higher temperatures and increased exposure.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Sharifi|first=Ayyoob|date=2020|title=Trade-offs and conflicts between urban climate change mitigation and adaptation measures: A literature review|journal=Journal of Cleaner Production |volume=276|page=122813|doi=10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122813|s2cid=225638176|issn=0959-6526 |url=http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652620328584}}</ref> Increased food productivity has large benefits for both adaptation and mitigation.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=54}}.</ref>
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| == Policies and politics ==
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| {{main|Politics of climate change}}
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| [[File:Climate Change Performance Index 2021.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|The [[Climate Change Performance Index]] ranks countries by greenhouse gas emissions (40% of score), renewable energy (20%), energy use (20%), and climate policy (20%).
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| {| border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="width:100%; background:none;"
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| |valign="top"|
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| {{legend|lawngreen|High}}
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| |valign="top"|
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| {{legend|yellow|Medium}}
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| |valign="top"|
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| {{legend|orange|Low}}
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| |valign="top"|
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| {{legend|darkred|Very Low}}
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| |}]]
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| Countries that are most [[Climate change vulnerability|vulnerable to climate change]] have typically been responsible for a small share of global emissions. This raises questions about justice and fairness.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=Section 3|p=17}}</ref> Climate change is strongly linked to sustainable development. Limiting global warming makes it easier to achieve [[sustainable development goals]], such as eradicating poverty and reducing inequalities. The connection is recognised in [[Sustainable Development Goal 13]] which is to "[t]ake urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts".<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018|p=447}}; United Nations (2017) Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 6 July 2017, [[:File:A RES 71 313 E.pdf|Work of the Statistical Commission pertaining to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development]] ([https://undocs.org/A/RES/71/313 A/RES/71/313])</ref> The goals on food, clean water and ecosystem protection have synergies with climate mitigation.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018|p=477}}
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| The [[geopolitics]] of climate change is complex. It has often been framed as a [[free-rider problem]], in which all countries benefit from mitigation done by other countries, but individual countries would lose from switching to a low-carbon economy themselves. This framing has been challenged. For instance, the benefits of a [[coal phase out|coal phase-out]] to public health and local environments exceed the costs in almost all regions.<ref name="Rauner 2020">{{harvnb|Rauner|Bauer|Dirnaichner|Van Dingenen|2020}}</ref> Furthermore, net importers of fossil fuels win economically from switching to clean energy, causing net exporters to face [[stranded assets]]: fossil fuels they cannot sell.<ref>{{harvnb|Mercure|Pollitt|Viñuales|Edwards|2018}}</ref>
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| === Policy options ===
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| A wide range of [[Policy|policies]], [[regulation]]s, and [[law]]s are being used to reduce emissions. As of 2019, [[carbon pricing]] covers about 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|World Bank, June|2019|p=12|loc=Box 1}}</ref> Carbon can be priced with [[carbon tax]]es and [[Carbon emission trading|emissions trading systems]].<ref>{{harvnb|Union of Concerned Scientists, 8 January|2017}}; {{harvnb|Hagmann|Ho|Loewenstein|2019}}.</ref> Direct global [[fossil fuel subsidies]] reached $319 billion in 2017, and $5.2 trillion when indirect costs such as air pollution are priced in.<ref>{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=1866}}</ref> Ending these can cause a 28% reduction in global carbon emissions and a 46% reduction in air pollution deaths.<ref>{{harvnb|UN Human Development Report|2020|p=10}}</ref> Subsidies could be used to support the [[Renewable energy transition|transition to clean energy]] instead.<ref>{{harvnb|International Institute for Sustainable Development|2019|p=iv}}</ref> More direct methods to reduce greenhouse gases include vehicle efficiency standards, renewable fuel standards, and air pollution regulations on heavy industry.<ref>{{harvnb|ICCT|2019|p=iv}}; {{harvnb|Natural Resources Defense Council, 29 September|2017}}</ref> Several countries [[Renewable portfolio standard|require utilities to increase the share of renewables in power production]].<ref>{{harvnb|National Conference of State Legislators, 17 April|2020}}; {{harvnb|European Parliament, February|2020}}</ref>
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| Policy designed through the lens of [[climate justice]] tries to address [[human rights]] issues and social inequality. For instance, wealthy nations responsible for the largest share of emissions would have to pay poorer countries to adapt.<ref>{{Cite web|last1=Gabbatiss|first1=Josh|last2=Tandon|first2=Ayesha|date=4 October 2021|title=In-depth Q&A: What is 'climate justice'?|url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-what-is-climate-justice|access-date=16 October 2021|website=Carbon Brief|language=en}}</ref> As the use of fossil fuels is reduced, jobs in the sector are being lost. To achieve a [[just transition]], these people would need to be retrained for other jobs. Communities with many fossil fuel workers would need additional investments.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 4 Jan|2017}}.</ref>
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| === International climate agreements ===
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| {{Further|United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change}}
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| [[File:Total CO2 by Region.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Since 2000, rising {{CO2}} emissions in China and the rest of world have surpassed the output of the United States and Europe.<ref name="Friedlingstein 2019">{{harvnb|Friedlingstein|Jones|O'Sullivan|Andrew|2019}}, Table 7.</ref>]]
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| [[File:Per Capita CO2 by Region.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Per person, the United States generates {{CO2}} at a far faster rate than other primary regions.<ref name="Friedlingstein 2019"/>]]
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| Nearly all countries in the world are parties to the 1994 [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]] (UNFCCC).<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC, "What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?"}}</ref> The goal of the UNFCCC is to prevent dangerous human interference with the [[climate system]].<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC|1992|loc=Article 2}}.</ref> As stated in the convention, this requires that greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilised in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and [[Economics of climate change|economic development]] can be sustained.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3 Ch1|2007|p=97}}.</ref> The UNFCCC does not itself restrict emissions but rather provides a framework for protocols that do. Global emissions have risen since the UNFCCC was signed.<ref name=":2">{{harvnb|EPA|2019}}.</ref> [[United Nations Climate Change conference|Its yearly conferences]] are the stage of global negotiations.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC, "What are United Nations Climate Change Conferences?"}}</ref>
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| The 1997 [[Kyoto Protocol]] extended the UNFCCC and included legally binding commitments for most developed countries to limit their emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|Kyoto Protocol|1997}}; {{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=290}}.</ref> During the negotiations, the [[Group of 77|G77]] (representing [[Developing country|developing countries]]) pushed for a mandate requiring [[Developed country|developed countries]] to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions,<ref>{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|p=4}}; {{harvnb|Grubb|2003}}.</ref> since developed countries contributed most to the [[Greenhouse gas#Cumulative and historical emissions|accumulation of greenhouse gases]] in the atmosphere. [[Greenhouse gas#Annual emissions|Per-capita emissions]] were also still relatively low in developing countries and developing countries would need to emit more to meet their development needs.<ref>{{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=290}}.</ref>
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| The 2009 [[Copenhagen Accord]] has been widely portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals, and was rejected by poorer nations including the G77.<ref>{{harvnb|Müller|2010}}; {{harvnb|The New York Times, 25 May|2015}}; {{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}; {{harvnb|EUobserver, 20 December|2009}}.</ref> Associated parties aimed to limit the global temperature rise to below 2 °C.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}.</ref> The Accord set the goal of sending $100 billion per year to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation by 2020, and proposed the founding of the [[Green Climate Fund]].<ref>{{cite conference|date=7–18 December 2009|title=Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change|url=http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/items/5257.php|location=[[Copenhagen]]|id=un document= FCCC/CP/2009/L.7|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101018074452/http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/items/5257.php|archive-date=18 October 2010|access-date=24 October 2010|url-status=live}}</ref> {{As of|2020|}}, the fund has failed to reach its expected target, and risks a shrinkage in its funding.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Cui|first1=Lianbiao|last2=Sun|first2=Yi|last3=Song|first3=Malin|last4=Zhu|first4=Lei|date=2020|title=Co-financing in the green climate fund: lessons from the global environment facility|url=https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1690968|journal=Climate Policy|volume=20|issue=1|pages=95–108|doi=10.1080/14693062.2019.1690968|issn=1469-3062|s2cid=213694904}}</ref>
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| In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the [[Paris Agreement]], which aims to keep global warming well below 2.0 °C and contains an aspirational goal of keeping warming under {{val|1.5|u=°C}}.{{sfn|Paris Agreement|2015}} The agreement replaced the Kyoto Protocol. Unlike Kyoto, no binding emission targets were set in the Paris Agreement. Instead, a set of procedures was made binding. Countries have to regularly set ever more ambitious goals and reevaluate these goals every five years.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate Focus|2015|p=3}}; {{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 8 October|2018}}.</ref> The Paris Agreement restated that developing countries must be financially supported.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate Focus|2015|p=5}}.</ref> {{As of|October 2021}}, 194 states and the [[European Union]] have signed the treaty and 191 states and the EU have [[Ratification|ratified]] or acceded to the agreement.<ref>{{cite web|title=Status of Treaties, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change|url=https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-d&chapter=27&clang=_en|access-date=13 October 2021|website=United Nations Treaty Collection}}; {{harvnb|Salon, 25 September|2019}}.</ref>
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| The 1987 [[Montreal Protocol]], an international agreement to stop emitting ozone-depleting gases, may have been more effective at curbing greenhouse gas emissions than the Kyoto Protocol specifically designed to do so.<ref>{{harvnb|Goyal|England|Sen Gupta|Jucker|2019}}</ref> The 2016 [[Kigali Amendment]] to the Montreal Protocol aims to reduce the emissions of [[hydrofluorocarbon]]s, a group of powerful greenhouse gases which served as a replacement for banned ozone-depleting gases. This made the Montreal Protocol a stronger agreement against climate change.<ref>{{cite web|last=Yeo|first=Sophie|date=10 October 2016|title=Explainer: Why a UN climate deal on HFCs matters|url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-why-a-un-climate-deal-on-hfcs-matters|access-date=10 January 2021|website=Carbon Brief}}</ref>
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| === National responses ===
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| In 2019, the [[Parliament of the United Kingdom|United Kingdom parliament]] became the first national government to declare a climate emergency.<ref>{{Harvnb|BBC, 1 May|2019}}; {{Harvnb|Vice, 2 May|2019}}.</ref> Other countries and [[jurisdiction]]s followed suit.<ref>{{harvnb|The Verge, 27 December|2019}}.</ref> That same year, the [[European Parliament]] declared a "climate and environmental emergency".<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 28 November|2019}}</ref> The [[European Commission]] presented its [[European Green Deal]] with the goal of making the EU carbon-neutral by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|Politico, 11 December|2019}}.</ref> Major countries in Asia have made similar pledges: South Korea and Japan have committed to become carbon-neutral by 2050, and China by 2060.<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 28 October|2020}}</ref> In 2021, the European Commission released its “[[Fit for 55]]” legislation package, which contains guidelines for the [[automotive industry|car industry]]; all new cars on the European market must be [[Zero-emissions vehicle|zero-emission vehicles]] from 2035.<ref>{{cite news |title=European Green Deal: Commission proposes transformation of EU economy and society to meet climate ambitions |url=https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_3541 |work=European Commission |date=14 July 2021}}</ref> While India has strong incentives for renewables, it also plans a significant expansion of coal in the country.<ref>{{cite web|date=15 September 2021|title=India|url=https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/|access-date=3 October 2021|website=Climate Action Tracker}}</ref>
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| As of 2021, based on information from 48 [[Nationally Determined Contributions|national climate plans]], which represent 40% of the parties to the Paris Agreement, estimated total greenhouse gas emissions will be 0.5% lower compared to 2010 levels, below the 45% or 25% reduction goals to limit global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C, respectively.<ref>{{harvnb|UN NDC Synthesis Report|2021|pp=4–5}}; {{cite news |author=UNFCCC Press Office |date=26 February 2021 |title=Greater Climate Ambition Urged as Initial NDC Synthesis Report Is Published |url=https://unfccc.int/news/greater-climate-ambition-urged-as-initial-ndc-synthesis-report-is-published |access-date=21 April 2021}}</ref>
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| == Business ==
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| {{Broader|Business action on climate change|Economics of climate change|Climate finance}}By the end of 2021, investors were expressing a preference for businesses that act to reduce [[Carbon dioxide|CO<sub>2</sub>]] and [[methane]] pollution.<ref>{{harvnb|Paulson|2021a}}; {{Cite web|last=Paulson|first=Henry|date=6 December 2021|title=Straight Talk with Hank Paulson: Larry Fink|url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9f-NuLziGfU|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220209185510/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9f-NuLziGfU|archive-date=9 February 2022|access-date=9 February 2022|website=Paulson Institute|at=At 15 minutes}}</ref> Improved ways of handling computer data (including [[Big data]] and [[artificial intelligence]]) were beginning to help identify "climate responsible" businesses, governments and other organizations.<ref>{{harvnb|Gopal|2021a}}; {{Cite journal|last=Gopal|first=Sucharita|date=22 November 2021|title=The Evolving Landscape of Big Data Analytics and ESG Materiality Mapping|url=https://jesg.pm-research.com/content/early/2021/11/22/jesg.2021.1.034|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220225000906/https://jesg.pm-research.com/content/early/2021/11/22/jesg.2021.1.034|archive-date=25 February 2022|access-date=24 February 2022|journal=The Journal of Impact and Esg Investing|volume=2 |issue=2 |pages=77–100 |doi=10.3905/jesg.2021.1.034 |s2cid=245744494 }}</ref>
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| As of December 2021, the equivalent of 4 trillion US dollars had been invested worldwide in sustainable enterprises, using a variety of new investment strategies.<ref>{{harvnb|Paulson|2021a}}; {{Cite web|last=Paulson|first=Henry|date=6 December 2021|title=Straight Talk with Hank Paulson: Larry Fink|url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9f-NuLziGfU|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220209185510/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9f-NuLziGfU|archive-date=9 February 2022|access-date=9 February 2022|website=Paulson Institute|at=At 15 minutes}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|GSIA|2021}}; {{Cite web |date=19 July 2021 |title=Global Sustainable Investment Alliance Releases Global Sustainable Investment Review 2020 |url=https://www.ussif.org/blog_home.asp?Display=173 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210811231744/https://www.ussif.org/blog_home.asp?Display=173 |archive-date=21 August 2021 |access-date=26 March 2022 |website=The Forum for Sustainable and Responsible Investment}}</ref> Examples include [[Climate Investment Funds]], [[Green Climate Fund]], and iShares by Blackrock.<ref>{{harvnb|iShares|2022}}; {{Cite web |date=14 March 2022 |title=Sustainable Investing |url=https://www.ishares.com/us/strategies/sustainable-investing |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220315051205/https://www.ishares.com/us/strategies/sustainable-investing |archive-date=15 March 2022 |access-date=14 March 2022 |website=iShares}}</ref>
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| == Scientific consensus and society ==
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| === Scientific consensus ===
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| {{Main|Scientific consensus on climate change}}
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| [[File:20211103 Academic studies of scientific consensus - global warming, climate change - vertical bar chart - en.svg|thumb|upright=1.35 |[[Surveys of scientists' views on climate change|Academic studies of scientific consensus]]<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Powell |first1=James Lawrence |author-link1=James L. Powell |date=20 November 2019 |title=Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming |url=https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0270467619886266?journalCode=bsta |journal=Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society |volume=37 |issue=4 |pages=183–184 |doi=10.1177/0270467619886266 |access-date=15 November 2020 |s2cid=213454806}}</ref><ref name=":5" /><ref name="Myers_2021">{{cite journal |last1=Myers |first1=Krista F. |last2=Doran |first2=Peter T. |last3=Cook |first3=John |last4=Kotcher |first4=John E. |last5=Myers |first5=Teresa A. |date=20 October 2021 |title=Consensus revisited: quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later |url=https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774/meta |journal=Environmental Research Letters |volume=16 |issue=10 |page=104030 |bibcode=2021ERL....16j4030M |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774 |s2cid=239047650}}</ref> reflect that the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science.<ref>{{harvnb|Cook|Oreskes|Doran|Anderegg|2016}}</ref>]]There is a near-complete scientific consensus that the climate is warming and that this is caused by human activities. As of 2019, agreement in recent literature reached over 99%.<ref name="Powell2019">{{cite journal |last1=Powell |first1=James |date=20 November 2019 |title=Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming |url=https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0270467619886266?journalCode=bsta |journal=Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society |volume=37 |issue=4 |pages=183–184 |doi=10.1177/0270467619886266 |s2cid=213454806 |access-date=15 November 2020}}</ref><ref name=":5">{{Cite journal|last1=Lynas|first1=Mark|last2=Houlton|first2=Benjamin Z|last3=Perry|first3=Simon|date=2021|title=Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature|url=https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966|journal=Environmental Research Letters|volume=16|issue=11|pages=114005|doi=10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966|bibcode=2021ERL....16k4005L|s2cid=239032360|issn=1748-9326}}</ref> No scientific body of national or international standing [[Scientific consensus on climate change#Opposing|disagrees with this view]].<ref>{{harvnb|National Academies|2008|p=2}}; {{harvnb|Oreskes|2007|p=[https://books.google.com/books?id=PXJIqCkb7YIC&pg=PA68 68]}}; {{Harvnb|Gleick, 7 January|2017}}</ref> Consensus has further developed that some form of action should be taken to protect people against the impacts of climate change. National science academies have called on world leaders to cut global emissions.<ref>Joint statement of the {{harvtxt|G8+5 Academies|2009}}; {{harvnb|Gleick, 7 January|2017}}.</ref>
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| Scientific discussion takes place in [[Scientific journal|journal]] articles that are [[Peer review|peer-reviewed]]. Scientists assess these every few years in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports.<ref>{{harvnb|Royal Society|2005}}.</ref> The 2021 IPCC Assessment Report stated that it is "unequivocal" that climate change is caused by humans.<ref name=":5" />
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| [[File:20200327 Climate change deniers cherry picking time periods.gif|thumb |upright=1.35 |right |Data has been [[cherry picking|cherry picked]] from short periods to falsely assert that global temperatures are not rising. Blue trendlines show short periods that mask longer-term warming trends (red trendlines). Blue dots show the so-called [[global warming hiatus]].{{sfn|Stover|2014}}]]
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| === Denial and misinformation ===
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| {{Further|Global warming controversy|Fossil fuels lobby|Climate change denial|Global warming conspiracy theory}}
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| Public debate about climate change has been strongly affected by climate change denial and [[misinformation]], which originated in the United States and has since spread to other countries, particularly Canada and Australia. The actors behind climate change denial form a well-funded and relatively coordinated coalition of fossil fuel companies, industry groups, [[conservative think tanks]], and [[contrarian]] scientists.<ref>{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2011|pp=144, [https://books.google.com/books?id=RsYr_iQUs6QC&pg=PA155 155]}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}</ref> [[Tobacco industry playbook|Like the tobacco industry]], the main strategy of these groups has been to manufacture doubt about scientific data and results.<ref>{{harvnb|Oreskes|Conway|2010}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}</ref> Many who deny, dismiss, or hold unwarranted doubt about the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change are labelled as "climate change skeptics", which several scientists have noted is a [[misnomer]].<ref>{{harvnb|O’Neill|Boykoff|2010}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}</ref>
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| There are different variants of climate denial: some deny that warming takes place at all, some acknowledge warming but attribute it to natural influences, and some minimise the negative impacts of climate change.<ref name="Björnberg 2017">{{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}</ref> Manufacturing uncertainty about the science later developed into a [[manufactured controversy]]: creating the belief that there is significant uncertainty about climate change within the scientific community in order to delay policy changes.<ref>{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2015|p=308}}.</ref> Strategies to promote these ideas include criticism of scientific institutions,<ref>{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2011|p=146}}.</ref> and questioning the motives of individual scientists.<ref name="Björnberg 2017"/> An [[echo chamber (media)|echo chamber]] of climate-denying [[blogs]] and media has further fomented misunderstanding of climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|Harvey|Van den Berg|Ellers|Kampen|2018}}</ref>
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| === Public awareness and opinion ===
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| {{Further|Climate communication|Media coverage of climate change|Public opinion on climate change}}
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| Climate change came to international public attention in the late 1980s.<ref name=":3">{{harvnb|Weart "The Public and Climate Change (since 1980)"}}</ref> Due to media coverage in the early 1990s, people often confused climate change with other environmental issues like ozone depletion.<ref name="Newell2006">{{harvnb|Newell|2006|p=80}}; {{harvnb|Yale Climate Connections, 2 November|2010}}</ref> [[Climate change in popular culture|In popular culture]], the [[climate fiction]] movie ''[[The Day After Tomorrow]]'' (2004) and the [[Al Gore]] documentary ''[[An Inconvenient Truth]]'' (2006) focused on climate change.<ref name=":3" />
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| Significant regional, gender, age and political differences exist in both public concern for, and understanding of, climate change. More highly educated people, and in some countries, women and younger people, were more likely to see climate change as a serious threat.<ref>{{harvnb|Pew|2015|p=10}}.</ref> Partisan gaps also exist in many countries,<ref name="auto1">{{harvnb|Pew|2020|}}.</ref> and countries with high {{CO2}} emissions tend to be less concerned.<ref>{{harvnb|Pew|2015|p=15}}.</ref> Views on causes of climate change vary widely between countries.<ref>{{harvnb|Yale|2021|p=7}}.</ref> Concern has increased over time,<ref name="auto1"/> to the point where in 2021 a majority of citizens in many countries express a high level of worry about climate change, or view it as a global emergency.<ref>{{harvnb|Yale|2021|p=9}}; {{harvnb|UNDP|2021|p=15}}.</ref> Higher levels of worry are associated with stronger public support for policies that address climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|Smith|Leiserowitz|2013|p=943}}.</ref>
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| ==== Climate movement ====
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| {{Main|Climate movement|Climate change litigation}}
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| [[File:A Little Hot (But that's the Point) (34188286892).jpg|thumb|upright=1.35| The [[2017 People's Climate March]] took place in hundreds of locations.<ref name=NYTimes_20220429/> Shown: the Washington, D.C. march, protesting policies of then-U.S. President Trump.<ref name=NYTimes_20220429>{{cite news |last1=Fandos |first1=Nicholas |title=Climate March Draws Thousands of Protesters Alarmed by Trump’s Environmental Agenda |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/29/us/politics/peoples-climate-march-trump.html |newspaper=The New York Times |date=29 April 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170429225924/https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/29/us/politics/peoples-climate-march-trump.html |archive-date=29 April 2022 |url-status=live }}</ref>]]
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| Climate protests demand that political leaders take action to prevent climate change. They can take the form of public demonstrations, [[fossil fuel divestment]], lawsuits and other activities.<ref>{{harvnb|Gunningham|2018}}.</ref> Prominent demonstrations include the [[School Strike for Climate]]. In this initiative, young people across the globe have been protesting since 2018 by skipping school on Fridays, inspired by Swedish teenager [[Greta Thunberg]].<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 19 March|2019}}; {{harvnb|Boulianne|Lalancette|Ilkiw|2020}}.</ref> Mass [[civil disobedience]] actions by groups like [[Extinction Rebellion]] have protested by disrupting roads and public transport.<ref>{{harvnb|Deutsche Welle, 22 June|2019}}.</ref> [[Climate change litigation|Litigation]] is increasingly used as a tool to strengthen climate action from public institutions and companies. Activists also initiate lawsuits which target governments and demand that they take ambitious action or enforce existing laws on climate change.<ref>{{cite web|last=Connolly|first=Kate|date=29 April 2021|title='Historic' German ruling says climate goals not tough enough|url=http://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/29/historic-german-ruling-says-climate-goals-not-tough-enough|access-date=1 May 2021|website=The Guardian}}</ref> Lawsuits against fossil-fuel companies generally seek compensation for loss and damage.<ref>{{harvnb|Setzer|Byrnes|2019}}.</ref>
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| ==Discovery==
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| {{Broader|History of climate change science}}
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| [[File:Tyndalls setup for measuring radiant heat absorption by gases annotated.svg|thumb|upright=1.35 |Tyndall's [[Spectrophotometry|ratio spectrophotometer]] (drawing from 1861) measured how much infrared radiation was absorbed and emitted by various gases filling its central tube.]]
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| In the 1820s, [[Joseph Fourier]] proposed the [[greenhouse effect]] to explain why Earth's temperature was higher than the sun's energy alone could explain. Earth's atmosphere is transparent to sunlight, so sunlight reaches the surface where it is converted to heat. However, the atmosphere is not transparent to [[infrared|heat]] radiating from the surface, and captures some of that heat which warms the planet.<ref>{{harvnb|Archer|Pierrehumbert|2013|pp=[https://books.google.com/books?id=sPY9HOfnuS0C&pg=PA10 10–14]}}</ref> In 1856 [[Eunice Newton Foote]] demonstrated that the warming effect of the sun is greater for air with water vapour than for dry air, and the effect is even greater with carbon dioxide. She concluded that "An atmosphere of that gas would give to our earth a high temperature..."<ref>{{cite book |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=6xhFAQAAMAAJ&pg=PA382|last=Foote|first=Eunice |title=Circumstances affecting the Heat of the Sun's Rays|work=The American Journal of Science and Arts|date=November 1856 |volume=22|pages=382–383|access-date=31 January 2016}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Huddleston|2019}}</ref> Starting in 1859,<ref>{{harvnb|Tyndall|1861}}.</ref> [[John Tyndall]] established that nitrogen and oxygen—together totalling 99% of dry air—are transparent to [[infrared|radiated heat]]. However, water vapour and some gases (in particular methane and carbon dioxide) absorb radiated heat and re-radiate that heat within the atmosphere. Tyndall proposed that changes in the concentrations of these gases may have caused climatic changes in the past, including [[ice age]]s.<ref>{{harvnb|Archer|Pierrehumbert|2013|pp=[https://books.google.com/books?id=sPY9HOfnuS0C&pg=PA39 39–42]}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2008|loc=[http://nsdl.library.cornell.edu/websites/wiki/index.php/PALE_ClassicArticles/GlobalWarming/Article3.html Tyndall]}}</ref>
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| [[Svante Arrhenius]] noted that water vapour in air continuously varied, but the {{co2}} concentration in air was influenced by long-term geological processes. At the end of an ice age, warming from increased {{co2}} levels would increase the amount of water vapour, amplifying warming in a feedback loop. In 1896, he published the first climate model of its kind, showing that halving of {{co2}} levels could have produced the drop in temperature initiating the ice age. Arrhenius calculated the temperature increase expected from doubling {{co2}} to be around 5–6 °C.{{snf|Lapenis|1998}} Other scientists were initially sceptical and believed the greenhouse effect to be saturated so that adding more {{co2}} would make no difference. They thought climate would be self-regulating.<ref name="Weart The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect">{{harvnb|Weart "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect"}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2008|loc=[http://nsdl.library.cornell.edu/websites/wiki/index.php/PALE_ClassicArticles/GlobalWarming/Article4.html Arrhenius]}}</ref> From 1938 onwards [[Guy Stewart Callendar]] published evidence that climate was warming and {{co2}} levels rising,<ref>{{harvnb|Callendar|1938}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2007}}.</ref> but his calculations met the same objections.<ref name="Weart The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect" />
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| In the 1950s, [[Gilbert Plass]] created a detailed computer model that included different atmospheric layers and the infrared spectrum. This model predicted that increasing {{co2}} levels would cause warming. Around the same time, [[Hans Suess]] found evidence that {{co2}} levels had been rising, and [[Roger Revelle]] showed that the oceans would not absorb the increase. The two scientists subsequently helped [[Charles David Keeling|Charles Keeling]] to begin a record of continued increase, which has been termed the "[[Keeling Curve]]".<ref name="Weart The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect" /> Scientists alerted the public,<ref>{{harvnb|Weart "Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)"}}</ref> and the dangers were highlighted at James Hansen's 1988 Congressional testimony.<ref name="history.aip.org">{{harvnb|Weart "The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988"}}, [http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm#L_0575 "News reporters gave only a little attention ..."].</ref> The [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]], set up in 1988 to provide formal advice to the world's governments, spurred [[Interdisciplinarity|interdisciplinary research]].<ref>{{harvnb|Weart|2013|p=3567}}.</ref>
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| == See also ==
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| <!-- Editors: please note that the Manual of Style advices a minimum (or no) items in this sections for featured articles -->
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| {{portal|Climate change|Environment|Science||World}}
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| * [[2020s in environmental history]]
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| * [[Anthropocene]] – proposed new geological time interval in which humans are having significant geological impact
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| * [[Global cooling]] – minority view held by scientists in the 1970s that imminent cooling of the Earth would take place
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| {{clear right}}
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| == References ==
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| ===Explanatory notes===
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| {{reflist|group=lower-alpha}}
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| === Notes ===
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| {{reflist}} | | {{reflist}} |
|
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| ===Sources===
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|
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| ==== IPCC reports ====
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| {{refbegin}}
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|
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| '''Fourth Assessment Report'''
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| <!-- Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}} links to this citation. -->
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| * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}
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| |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
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| |year =2007
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| |title=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
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| |series=Contribution of Working Group I to the [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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| |display-editors=4
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| |editor-first1=S. |editor-last1=Solomon
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| |editor-first2=D. |editor-last2=Qin
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| |editor-first3=M. |editor-last3=Manning
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| |editor-first4=Z. |editor-last4=Chen
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| |editor-first5=M. |editor-last5=Marquis
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| |editor-first6=K. B. |editor-last6=Averyt
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| |editor-first7=M. |editor-last7=Tignor
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| |editor-first8=H. L. |editor-last8=Miller
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| |publisher=Cambridge University Press
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| |url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html
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| |isbn=978-0-521-88009-1
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| }}
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| <!-- # -->
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| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch1|2007}}
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| |chapter=Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science
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| |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter1.pdf
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| |year=2007
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| |display-authors=4
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| |first1=H. |last1=Le Treut
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| |first2=R. |last2=Somerville
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| |first3=U. |last3=Cubasch
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| |first4=Y. |last4=Ding
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| |first5=C. |last5=Mauritzen
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| |first6=A. |last6=Mokssit
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| |first7=T. |last7=Peterson
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| |first8=M. |last8=Prather
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| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}
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| |pages=93–127
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| }}
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| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch8|2007}}
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| |chapter=Chapter 8: Climate Models and their Evaluation
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| |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf
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| |year=2007
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| |display-authors=4
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| |first1=D. A. |last1=Randall
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| |first2=R. A. |last2=Wood
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| |first3=S. |last3=Bony
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| |first4=R. |last4=Colman
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| |first5=T. |last5=Fichefet
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| |first6=J. |last6=Fyfe
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| |first7=V. |last7=Kattsov
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| |first8=A. |last8=Pitman
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| |first9=J. |last9=Shukla
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| |first10=J. |last10=Srinivasan
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| |first11=R. J. |last11=Stouffer
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| |first12=A. |last12=Sumi
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| |first13=K. E. |last13=Taylor
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| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}
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| |pages=589–662
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| }}
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| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch9|2007}}
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| |chapter=Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change
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| |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter9.pdf
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| |year=2007
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| |display-authors=4
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| |first1=G. C. |last1=Hegerl
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| |first2=F. W. |last2=Zwiers
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| |first3=P. |last3=Braconnot |author-link3=Pascale Braconnot
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| |first4=N. P. |last4=Gillett
| |
| |first5=Y. |last5=Luo
| |
| |first6=J. A. |last6=Marengo Orsini
| |
| |first7=N. |last7=Nicholls
| |
| |first8=J. E. |last8=Penner
| |
| |first9=P. A. |last9=Stott
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}
| |
| |pages=663–745
| |
| }}
| |
|
| |
| <!-- Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}} links to this citation. -->
| |
| * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}
| |
| |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
| |
| |year =2007
| |
| |title=Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
| |
| |series=Contribution of Working Group II to the [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
| |
| |display-editors=4
| |
| |editor-first1=M. L. |editor-last1=Parry
| |
| |editor-first2=O. F. |editor-last2=Canziani
| |
| |editor-first3=J. P. |editor-last3=Palutikof
| |
| |editor-first4=P. J. |editor-last4=van der Linden
| |
| |editor-first5=C. E. |editor-last5=Hanson
| |
| |publisher=Cambridge University Press
| |
| |url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html
| |
| |isbn=978-0-521-88010-7
| |
| }}
| |
| <!-- ## -->
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch1|2007}}
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 1: Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems
| |
| |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter1.pdf
| |
| |year=2007
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=C. |last1=Rosenzweig
| |
| |first2=G. |last2=Casassa
| |
| |first3=D. J. |last3=Karoly
| |
| |first4=A. |last4=Imeson
| |
| |first5=C. |last5=Liu
| |
| |first6=A. |last6=Menzel
| |
| |first7=S. |last7=Rawlins
| |
| |first8=T. L. |last8=Root
| |
| |first9=B. |last9=Seguin
| |
| |first10=P. |last10=Tryjanowski
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}
| |
| |pages=79–131
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch19|2007}}
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 19: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change
| |
| |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter19.pdf
| |
| |year=2007
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=S. H. |last1=Schneider
| |
| |first2=S. |last2=Semenov
| |
| |first3=A. |last3=Patwardhan
| |
| |first4=I. |last4=Burton
| |
| |first5=C. H. D. |last5=Magadza
| |
| |first6=M. |last6=Oppenheimer
| |
| |first7=A. B. |last7=Pittock
| |
| |first8=A. |last8=Rahman
| |
| |first9=J. B. |last9=Smith
| |
| |first10=A. |last10=Suarez
| |
| |first11=F. |last11=Yamin
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}
| |
| |pages=779–810
| |
| }}
| |
|
| |
| <!-- Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}} links to this citation. -->
| |
| * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}
| |
| |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
| |
| |year =2007
| |
| |title=Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change
| |
| |series=Contribution of Working Group III to the [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
| |
| |display-editors=4
| |
| |editor-first1=B. |editor-last1=Metz
| |
| |editor-first2=O. R. |editor-last2=Davidson
| |
| |editor-first3=P. R. |editor-last3=Bosch
| |
| |editor-first4=R. |editor-last4=Dave
| |
| |editor-first5=L. A. |editor-last5=Meyer
| |
| |publisher=Cambridge University Press
| |
| |url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/contents.html
| |
| |isbn=978-0-521-88011-4
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG3 Ch1|2007}}
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 1: Introduction
| |
| |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter1.pdf
| |
| |year=2007
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=H.-H.|last1=Rogner
| |
| |first2=D. |last2=Zhou
| |
| |first3=R. |last3=Bradley
| |
| |first4=P. |last4=Crabbé
| |
| |first5=O. |last5=Edenhofer
| |
| |first6=B. |last6=Hare
| |
| |first7=L. |last7=Kuijpers
| |
| |first8=M. |last8=Yamaguchi
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}
| |
| |pages=95–116
| |
| }}
| |
|
| |
| <!-- =========AR5================== -->
| |
| '''Fifth Assessment report'''
| |
| * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}<!-- ipcc:20200215 -->
| |
| |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
| |
| |year=2013
| |
| |title=Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
| |
| |series=Contribution of Working Group I to the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report|Fifth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
| |
| |display-editors=4
| |
| |editor1-first=T. F. |editor1-last=Stocker
| |
| |editor2-first=D. |editor2-last=Qin
| |
| |editor3-first=G.-K. |editor3-last=Plattner
| |
| |editor4-first=M. |editor4-last=Tignor
| |
| |editor5-first=S. K. |editor5-last=Allen
| |
| |editor6-first=J. |editor6-last=Boschung
| |
| |editor7-first=A. |editor7-last=Nauels
| |
| |editor8-first=Y. |editor8-last=Xia
| |
| |editor9-first=V. |editor9-last=Bex
| |
| |editor10-first=P. M. |editor10-last=Midgley
| |
| |publisher=Cambridge University Press
| |
| |place=Cambridge, UK & New York
| |
| |isbn=978-1-107-05799-9 <!-- ISBN in printed source is incorrect. -->
| |
| |url=http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf <!-- Same file, new url per IPCC. -->
| |
| }}. [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis — IPCC]
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013}}
| |
| |chapter=Summary for Policymakers
| |
| |chapter-url=https://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf
| |
| |year=2013
| |
| |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch2|2013}}
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
| |
| |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2017/09/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf
| |
| |year=2013
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=D. L. |last1=Hartmann
| |
| |first2=A. M. G. |last2=Klein Tank
| |
| |first3=M. |last3=Rusticucci
| |
| |first4=L. V. |last4=Alexander
| |
| |first5=S. |last5=Brönnimann
| |
| |first6=Y. |last6=Charabi
| |
| |first7=F. J. |last7=Dentener
| |
| |first8=E. J. |last8=Dlugokencky
| |
| |first9=D. R. |last9=Easterling
| |
| |first10=A. |last10=Kaplan
| |
| |first11=B. J. |last11=Soden
| |
| |first12=P. W. |last12=Thorne
| |
| |first13=M. |last13=Wild
| |
| |first14=P. M. |last14=Zhai
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
| |
| |pages=159–254
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch3|2013}}
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean
| |
| |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter03_FINAL.pdf
| |
| |year=2013
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=M. |last1=Rhein
| |
| |first2=S. R. |last2=Rintoul
| |
| |first3=S. |last3=Aoki
| |
| |first4=E. |last4=Campos
| |
| |first5=D. |last5=Chambers
| |
| |first6=R. A. |last6=Feely
| |
| |first7=S. |last7=Gulev
| |
| |first8=G. C. |last8=Johnson
| |
| |first9=S. A. |last9=Josey
| |
| |first10=A. |last10=Kostianoy
| |
| |first11=C. |last11=Mauritzen
| |
| |first12=D. |last12=Roemmich
| |
| |first13=L. D. |last13=Talley
| |
| |first14=F. |last14=Wang
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
| |
| |pages=255–315
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013}}
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives
| |
| |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter05_FINAL.pdf
| |
| |year=2013
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=V. |last1=Masson-Delmotte
| |
| |first2=M. |last2=Schulz
| |
| |first3=A. |last3=Abe-Ouchi
| |
| |first4=J. |last4=Beer
| |
| |first5=A. |last5=Ganopolski
| |
| |first6=J. F. |last6=González Rouco
| |
| |first7=E. |last7=Jansen
| |
| |first8=K. |last8=Lambeck
| |
| |first9=J. |last9=Luterbacher
| |
| |first10=T. |last10=Naish
| |
| |first11=T. |last11=Osborn
| |
| |first12=B. |last12=Otto-Bliesner
| |
| |first13=T. |last13=Quinn
| |
| |first14=R. |last14=Ramesh
| |
| |first15=M. |last15=Rojas
| |
| |first16=X. |last16=Shao
| |
| |first17=A. |last17=Timmermann
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
| |
| |pages=383–464
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013}}
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional
| |
| |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter10_FINAL.pdf
| |
| |year=2013
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=N. L. |last1=Bindoff
| |
| |first2=P. A. |last2=Stott
| |
| |first3=K. M. |last3=AchutaRao
| |
| |first4=M. R. |last4=Allen
| |
| |first5=N. |last5=Gillett
| |
| |first6=D. |last6=Gutzler
| |
| |first7=K. |last7=Hansingo
| |
| |first8=G. |last8=Hegerl
| |
| |first9=Y. |last9=Hu
| |
| |first10=S. |last10=Jain
| |
| |first11=I. I. |last11=Mokhov
| |
| |first12=J. |last12=Overland
| |
| |first13=J. |last13=Perlwitz
| |
| |first14=R. |last14=Sebbari
| |
| |first15=X. |last15=Zhang
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
| |
| |pages=867–952
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013}}
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
| |
| |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf
| |
| |year=2013
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=M. |last1=Collins
| |
| |first2=R. |last2=Knutti
| |
| |first3=J. M. |last3=Arblaster
| |
| |first4=J.-L. |last4=Dufresne
| |
| |first5=T. |last5=Fichefet
| |
| |first6=P. |last6=Friedlingstein
| |
| |first7=X. |last7=Gao
| |
| |first8=W. J. |last8=Gutowski
| |
| |first9=T. |last9=Johns
| |
| |first10=G. |last10=Krinner
| |
| |first11=M. |last11=Shongwe
| |
| |first12=C. |last12=Tebaldi
| |
| |first13=A. J. |last13=Weaver
| |
| |first14=M. |last14=Wehner
| |
| |pages=1029–1136
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
| |
| }}
| |
|
| |
| <!----------------AR5 Working Group II Report -->
| |
| {{anchor|{{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2|2014}}}} <!-- For the entire AR5 WG2 report -->
| |
| * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
| |
| |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
| |
| |year=2014
| |
| |title=Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects
| |
| |series=Contribution of Working Group II to the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report|Fifth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
| |
| |display-editors=4
| |
| |editor-first1=C. B. |editor-last1=Field
| |
| |editor-first2=V. R. |editor-last2=Barros
| |
| |editor-first3=D. J. |editor-last3=Dokken
| |
| |editor-first4=K. J. |editor-last4=Mach
| |
| |editor-first5=M. D. |editor-last5=Mastrandrea
| |
| |editor-first6=T. E. |editor-last6=Bilir
| |
| |editor-first7=M. |editor-last7=Chatterjee
| |
| |editor-first8=K. L. |editor-last8=Ebi
| |
| |editor-first9=Y. O. |editor-last9=Estrada
| |
| |editor-first10=R. C. |editor-last10=Genova
| |
| |editor-first11=B. |editor-last11=Girma
| |
| |editor-first12=E. S. |editor-last12=Kissel
| |
| |editor-first13=A. N. |editor-last13=Levy
| |
| |editor-first14=S. |editor-last14=MacCracken
| |
| |editor-first15=P. R. |editor-last15=Mastrandrea
| |
| |editor-first16=L. L. |editor-last16=White
| |
| |publisher=Cambridge University Press
| |
| |isbn=978-1-107-05807-1
| |
| |url=<!-- ** I haven't added AR5 urls yet as I have not determined which is best. -JJ -->
| |
| }}. Chapters 1–20, SPM, and Technical Summary.
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch3|2014}}
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 3: Freshwater Resources
| |
| |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap3_FINAL.pdf
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=B. E. |last1=Jiménez Cisneros
| |
| |first2=T. |last2=Oki
| |
| |first3=N. W. |last3=Arnell
| |
| |first4=G. |last4=Benito
| |
| |first5=J. G. |last5=Cogley
| |
| |first6=P. |last6=Döll
| |
| |first7=T. |last7=Jiang
| |
| |first8=S. S. |last8=Mwakalila
| |
| |year=2014
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
| |
| |pages=229–269
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch7|2014}}
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 7: Food Security and Food Production Systems
| |
| |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap7_FINAL.pdf
| |
| |year=2014
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=J. R. |last1=Porter
| |
| |first2=L. |last2=Xie
| |
| |first3=A. J. |last3=Challinor
| |
| |first4=K. |last4=Cochrane
| |
| |first5=S. M. |last5=Howden
| |
| |first6=M. M. |last6=Iqbal
| |
| |first7=D. B. |last7=Lobell
| |
| |first8=M. I. |last8=Travasso
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
| |
| |pages=485–533
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch11|2014}}
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 11: Human Health: Impacts, Adaptation, and Co-Benefits
| |
| |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf
| |
| |year=2014
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=K. R. |last1=Smith
| |
| |first2=A. |last2=Woodward
| |
| |first3=D. |last3=Campbell-Lendrum
| |
| |first4=D. D. |last4=Chadee
| |
| |first5=Y. |last5=Honda
| |
| |first6=Q. |last6=Lui
| |
| |first7=J. M. |last7=Olwoch
| |
| |first8=B. |last8=Revich
| |
| |first9=R. |last9=Sauerborn
| |
| |title=In {{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
| |
| |pages=709–754
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014}}
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 13: Livelihoods and Poverty
| |
| |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap13_FINAL.pdf
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=L. |last1=Olsson
| |
| |first2=M. |last2=Opondo
| |
| |first3=P. |last3=Tschakert
| |
| |first4=A. |last4=Agrawal
| |
| |first5=S. H. |last5=Eriksen
| |
| |first6=S. |last6=Ma
| |
| |first7=L. N. |last7=Perch
| |
| |first8=S. A. |last8=Zakieldeen
| |
| |year=2014
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
| |
| |pages=793–832
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch18|2014}}
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 18: Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts
| |
| |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap18_FINAL.pdf
| |
| |year=2014
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=W. |last1=Cramer
| |
| |first2=G. W. |last2=Yohe
| |
| |first3=M. |last3=Auffhammer
| |
| |first4=C. |last4=Huggel
| |
| |first5=U. |last5=Molau
| |
| |first6=M. A. F. |last6=da Silva Dias
| |
| |first7=A. |last7=Solow
| |
| |first8=D. A. |last8=Stone
| |
| |first9=L. |last9=Tibig
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
| |
| |pages=979–1037
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch19|2014}}
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 19: Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities
| |
| |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap19_FINAL.pdf
| |
| |year=2014
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=M. |last1=Oppenheimer
| |
| |first2=M. |last2=Campos
| |
| |first3=R. |last3=Warren
| |
| |first4=J. |last4=Birkmann
| |
| |first5=G. |last5=Luber
| |
| |first6=B. |last6=O'Neill
| |
| |first7=K. |last7=Takahashi
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
| |
| |pages=1039–1099
| |
| }}
| |
| * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 B|2014}}
| |
| |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
| |
| |year=2014
| |
| |title=Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects
| |
| |series=Contribution of Working Group II to the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report|Fifth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
| |
| |display-editors=4
| |
| |editor-first1=V. R. |editor-last1=Barros
| |
| |editor-first2=C. B. |editor-last2=Field
| |
| |editor-first3=D. J. |editor-last3=Dokken
| |
| |editor-first4=K. J. |editor-last4=Mach
| |
| |editor-first5=M. D. |editor-last5=Mastrandrea
| |
| |editor-first6=T. E. |editor-last6=Bilir
| |
| |editor-first7=M. |editor-last7=Chatterjee
| |
| |editor-first8=K. L. |editor-last8=Ebi
| |
| |editor-first9=Y. O. |editor-last9=Estrada
| |
| |editor-first10=R. C. |editor-last10=Genova
| |
| |editor-first11=B. |editor-last11=Girma
| |
| |editor-first12=E. S. |editor-last12=Kissel
| |
| |editor-first13=A. N. |editor-last13=Levy
| |
| |editor-first14=S. |editor-last14=MacCracken
| |
| |editor-first15=P. R. |editor-last15=Mastrandrea
| |
| |editor-first16=L.L |editor-last16=White
| |
| |publisher=Cambridge University Press
| |
| |place=Cambridge, UK & New York
| |
| |isbn=978-1-107-05816-3
| |
| |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-PartB_FINAL.pdf
| |
| }}. Chapters 21–30, Annexes, and Index.
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch28|2014}}
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 28: Polar Regions
| |
| |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap28_FINAL.pdf
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=J. N. |last1=Larsen
| |
| |first2=O. A. |last2=Anisimov
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| |first3=A. |last3=Constable
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| |first4=A. B. |last4=Hollowed
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| |first5=N. |last5=Maynard
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| |first6=P. |last6=Prestrud
| |
| |first7=T. D. |last7=Prowse
| |
| |first8=J. M. R.|last8=Stone
| |
| |year=2014
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 B|2014}}
| |
| |pages=1567–1612
| |
| }}
| |
|
| |
| <!-- ------------------------------ -->
| |
| * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}
| |
| |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
| |
| |year=2014
| |
| |title=Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change
| |
| |series=Contribution of Working Group III to the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report|Fifth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
| |
| |display-editors=4
| |
| |editor-first1=O. |editor-last1=Edenhofer
| |
| |editor-first2=R. |editor-last2=Pichs-Madruga
| |
| |editor-first3=Y. |editor-last3=Sokona
| |
| |editor-first4=E. |editor-last4=Farahani
| |
| |editor-first5=S. |editor-last5=Kadner
| |
| |editor-first6=K. |editor-last6=Seyboth
| |
| |editor-first7=A. |editor-last7=Adler
| |
| |editor-first8=I. |editor-last8=Baum
| |
| |editor-first9=S. |editor-last9=Brunner
| |
| |editor-first10=P. |editor-last10=Eickemeier
| |
| |editor-first11=B. |editor-last11=Kriemann
| |
| |editor-first12=J. |editor-last12=Savolainen
| |
| |editor-first13=S. |editor-last13=Schlömer
| |
| |editor-first14=C. |editor-last14=von Stechow
| |
| |editor-first15=T. |editor-last15=Zwickel
| |
| |editor-first16=J. C. |editor-last16=Minx
| |
| |publisher=Cambridge University Press
| |
| |place=Cambridge, UK & New York, NY
| |
| |isbn= 978-1-107-05821-7
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch5|2014}}<!-- ipcc:20190900 -->
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 5: Drivers, Trends and Mitigation
| |
| |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_full.pdf
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=G. |last1=Blanco
| |
| |first2=R. |last2=Gerlagh
| |
| |first3=S. |last3=Suh
| |
| |first4=J. |last4=Barrett
| |
| |first5=H. C. |last5=de Coninck
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| |first6=C. F. |last6=Diaz Morejon
| |
| |first7=R. |last7=Mathur
| |
| |first8=N. |last8=Nakicenovic
| |
| |first9=A. |last9=Ofosu Ahenkora
| |
| |first10=J. |last10=Pan
| |
| |first11=H. |last11=Pathak
| |
| |first12=J. |last12=Rice
| |
| |first13=R. |last13=Richels
| |
| |first14=S. J. |last14=Smith
| |
| |first15=D. I. |last15=Stern
| |
| |first16=F. L. |last16=Toth
| |
| |first17=P. |last17=Zhou
| |
| |year=2014
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}
| |
| |pages=351–411
| |
| }}
| |
| <!-- ## -->
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch9|2014}}
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 9: Buildings
| |
| |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter9.pdf
| |
| |year=2014
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=O. |last1=Lucon
| |
| |first2=D. |last2=Ürge-Vorsatz
| |
| |first3=A. |last3=Ahmed
| |
| |first4=H. |last4=Akbari
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| |first5=P. |last5=Bertoldi
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| |first6=L. |last6=Cabeza
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| |first7=N. |last7=Eyre
| |
| |first8=A. |last8=Gadgil
| |
| |first9=L. D. |last9=Harvey
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| |first10=Y. |last10=Jiang
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| |first11=E. |last11=Liphoto
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| |first12=S. |last12=Mirasgedis
| |
| |first13=S. |last13=Murakami
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| |first14=J. |last14=Parikh
| |
| |first15=C. |last15=Pyke
| |
| |first16=M. |last16=Vilariño
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}
| |
| }}
| |
| * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014}}
| |
| |author=IPCC AR5 SYR |author-link=IPCC
| |
| |year=2014
| |
| |title=Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report
| |
| |series=Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report|Fifth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
| |
| |editor1=The Core Writing Team
| |
| |editor-first2=R. K. |editor-last2=Pachauri
| |
| |editor-first3=L. A. |editor-last3=Meyer
| |
| |publisher=IPCC
| |
| |place=Geneva, Switzerland
| |
| |isbn=<!-- no isbn -->
| |
| |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014}}
| |
| |chapter=Summary for Policymakers
| |
| |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
| |
| |year=2014
| |
| |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014}}
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014}}
| |
| |chapter=Annex II: Glossary
| |
| |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_Annexes.pdf
| |
| |year=2014
| |
| |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014}}
| |
| }}
| |
|
| |
| <!-- =========SR15================== -->
| |
| '''Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 °C'''
| |
| * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
| |
| |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
| |
| |year=2018
| |
| |title=Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty
| |
| |display-editors=4
| |
| |editor-first1=V. |editor-last1=Masson-Delmotte
| |
| |editor-first2=P. |editor-last2=Zhai
| |
| |editor-first3=H.-O. |editor-last3=Pörtner
| |
| |editor-first4=D. |editor-last4=Roberts
| |
| |editor-first5=J. |editor-last5=Skea
| |
| |editor-first6=P. R. |editor-last6=Shukla
| |
| |editor-first7=A. |editor-last7=Pirani
| |
| |editor-first8=W. |editor-last8=Moufouma-Okia
| |
| |editor-first9=C. |editor-last9=Péan
| |
| |editor-first10=R. |editor-last10=Pidcock
| |
| |editor-first11=S. |editor-last11=Connors
| |
| |editor-first12=J. B. R. |editor-last12=Matthews
| |
| |editor-first13=Y. |editor-last13=Chen
| |
| |editor-first14=X. |editor-last14=Zhou
| |
| |editor-first15=M. I. |editor-last15=Gomis
| |
| |editor-first16=E. |editor-last16=Lonnoy
| |
| |editor-first17=T. |editor-last17=Maycock
| |
| |editor-first18=M. |editor-last18=Tignor
| |
| |editor-first19=T. |editor-last19=Waterfeld
| |
| |publisher=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
| |
| |isbn=<!-- not issued? -->
| |
| |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf
| |
| }} [https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ Global Warming of 1.5 ºC —].
| |
| <!-- ## -->
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
| |
| |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
| |
| |year=2018
| |
| |chapter=Summary for Policymakers
| |
| |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_HR.pdf
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
| |
| |pages=3–24
| |
| }}
| |
| <!-- ## -->
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
| |
| |year=2018
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 1: Framing and Context
| |
| |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter1_High_Res.pdf
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=M. R. |last1=Allen
| |
| |first2=O. P. |last2=Dube
| |
| |first3=W. |last3=Solecki
| |
| |first4=F. |last4=Aragón-Durand
| |
| |first5=W. |last5=Cramer
| |
| |first6=S. |last6=Humphreys
| |
| |first7=M. |last7=Kainuma
| |
| |first8=J. |last8=Kala
| |
| |first9=N. |last9=Mahowald
| |
| |first10=Y. |last10=Mulugetta
| |
| |first11=R. |last11=Perez
| |
| |first12=M. |last12=Wairiu
| |
| |first13=K. |last13=Zickfeld
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
| |
| |pages=49–91
| |
| }}
| |
| <!-- ## -->
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
| |
| |year=2018
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 2: Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development
| |
| |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter2_High_Res.pdf
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=J. |last1=Rogelj
| |
| |first2=D. |last2=Shindell
| |
| |first3=K. |last3=Jiang
| |
| |first4=S. |last4=Fifta
| |
| |first5=P. |last5=Forster
| |
| |first6=V. |last6=Ginzburg
| |
| |first7=C. |last7=Handa
| |
| |first8=H. |last8=Kheshgi
| |
| |first9=S. |last9=Kobayashi
| |
| |first10=E. |last10=Kriegler
| |
| |first11=L. |last11=Mundaca
| |
| |first12=R. |last12=Séférian
| |
| |first13=M. V. |last13=Vilariño
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
| |
| |pages=93–174
| |
| }}
| |
| <!-- ## -->
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
| |
| |year=2018
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5ºC Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems
| |
| |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter3_High_Res.pdf
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=O. |last1=Hoegh-Guldberg
| |
| |first2=D. |last2=Jacob
| |
| |first3=M. |last3=Taylor
| |
| |first4=M. |last4=Bindi
| |
| |first5=S. |last5=Brown
| |
| |first6=I. |last6=Camilloni
| |
| |first7=A. |last7=Diedhiou
| |
| |first8=R. |last8=Djalante
| |
| |first9=K. L. |last9=Ebi
| |
| |first10=F. |last10=Engelbrecht
| |
| |first11=J. |last11=Guiot
| |
| |first12=Y. |last12=Hijioka
| |
| |first13=S. |last13=Mehrotra
| |
| |first14=A. |last14=Payne
| |
| |first15=S. I.|last15=Seneviratne
| |
| |first16=A. |last16=Thomas
| |
| |first17=R. |last17=Warren
| |
| |first18=G. |last18=Zhou
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
| |
| |pages=175–311
| |
| }}
| |
| <!-- ## -->
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
| |
| |year=2018
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 4: Strengthening and Implementing the Global Response
| |
| |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter4_High_Res.pdf
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=H. |last1=de Coninck
| |
| |first2=A. |last2=Revi
| |
| |first3=M. |last3=Babiker
| |
| |first4=P. |last4=Bertoldi
| |
| |first5=M. |last5=Buckeridge
| |
| |first6=A. |last6=Cartwright
| |
| |first7=W. |last7=Dong
| |
| |first8=J. |last8=Ford
| |
| |first9=S. |last9=Fuss
| |
| |first10=J.-C. |last10=Hourcade
| |
| |first11=D. |last11=Ley
| |
| |first12=R. |last12=Mechler
| |
| |first13=P. |last13=Newman
| |
| |first14=A. |last14=Revokatova
| |
| |first15=S. |last15=Schultz
| |
| |first16=L. |last16=Steg
| |
| |first17=T. |last17=Sugiyama
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
| |
| |pages=313–443
| |
| }}
| |
| <!-- ## -->
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
| |
| |year=2018
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 5: Sustainable Development, Poverty Eradication and Reducing Inequalities
| |
| |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter5_High_Res.pdf
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=J. |last1=Roy
| |
| |first2=P. |last2=Tschakert
| |
| |first3=H. |last3=Waisman
| |
| |first4=S. |last4=Abdul Halim
| |
| |first5=P. |last5=Antwi-Agyei
| |
| |first6=P. |last6=Dasgupta
| |
| |first7=B. |last7=Hayward
| |
| |first8=M. |last8=Kanninen
| |
| |first9=D. |last9=Liverman
| |
| |first10=C. |last10=Okereke
| |
| |first11=P. F. |last11=Pinho
| |
| |first12=K. |last12=Riahi
| |
| |first13=A. G. |last13=Suarez Rodriguez
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
| |
| |pages=445–538
| |
| }}
| |
|
| |
| <!-- =========SRCCL ============================ -->
| |
| '''Special Report: Climate change and Land'''
| |
| * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
| |
| |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
| |
| |display-editors=4
| |
| |editor-first1=P. R. |editor-last1=Shukla
| |
| |editor-first2=J. |editor-last2=Skea
| |
| |editor-first3=E. |editor-last3=Calvo Buendia
| |
| |editor-first4=V. |editor-last4=Masson-Delmotte
| |
| |editor-first5=H.-O. |editor-last5=Pörtner
| |
| |editor-first6=D. |editor-last6=C. Roberts
| |
| |editor-first7=P. |editor-last7=Zhai
| |
| |editor-first8=R. |editor-last8=Slade
| |
| |editor-first9=S. |editor-last9=Connors
| |
| |editor-first10=R. |editor-last10=van Diemen
| |
| |editor-first11=M. |editor-last11=Ferrat
| |
| |editor-first12=E. |editor-last12=Haughey
| |
| |editor-first13=S. |editor-last13=Luz
| |
| |editor-first14=S. |editor-last14=Neogi
| |
| |editor-first15=M. |editor-last15=Pathak
| |
| |editor-first16=J. |editor-last16=Petzold
| |
| |editor-first17=J. |editor-last17=Portugal Pereira
| |
| |editor-first18=P. |editor-last18=Vyas
| |
| |editor-first19=E. |editor-last19=Huntley
| |
| |editor-first20=K. |editor-last20=Kissick
| |
| |editor-first21=M. |editor-last21=Belkacemi
| |
| |editor-first22=J. |editor-last22=Malley
| |
| |year=2019
| |
| |title=IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse gas fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems
| |
| |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/SRCCL-Full-Report-Compiled-191128.pdf
| |
| |publisher=In press
| |
| }}
| |
| <!-- ## -->
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
| |
| |chapter=Summary for Policymakers
| |
| |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/4/2019/12/02_Summary-for-Policymakers_SPM.pdf
| |
| |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
| |
| |year=2019
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}}
| |
| |pages=3–34
| |
| }}
| |
| <!-- ## -->
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 2: Land-Climate Interactions
| |
| |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/05_Chapter-2.pdf
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=G. |last1=Jia
| |
| |first2=E. |last2=Shevliakova
| |
| |first3=P. E. |last3=Artaxo<!-- 'Artaxo-Netto'? -->
| |
| |first4=N. |last4=De Noblet-Ducoudré
| |
| |first5=R. |last5=Houghton
| |
| |first6=J. |last6=House
| |
| |first7=K. |last7=Kitajima
| |
| |first8=C. |last8=Lennard
| |
| |first9=A. |last9=Popp
| |
| |first10=A. |last10=Sirin
| |
| |first11=R. |last11=Sukumar
| |
| |first12=L. |last12=Verchot
| |
| |year=2019
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}}
| |
| |pages=131–247
| |
| }}
| |
| <!-- ## -->
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
| |
| |chapter=Chapter 5: Food Security
| |
| |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/08_Chapter-5.pdf
| |
| |display-authors=4
| |
| |first1=C. |last1=Mbow
| |
| |first2=C. |last2=Rosenzweig
| |
| |first3=L. G. |last3=Barioni
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| |first4=T. |last4=Benton
| |
| |first5=M. |last5=Herrero
| |
| |first6=M. V. |last6=Krishnapillai
| |
| |first7=E. |last7=Liwenga
| |
| |first8=P. |last8=Pradhan
| |
| |first9=M. G. |last9=Rivera-Ferre
| |
| |first10=T. |last10=Sapkota
| |
| |first11=F. N. |last11=Tubiello
| |
| |first12=Y. |last12=Xu
| |
| |year=2019
| |
| |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}}
| |
| |pages=437–550
| |
| }}
| |
|
| |
| <!-- =========SROCC ============================ -->
| |
| '''Special Report: The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate'''
| |
| * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
| |
| |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
| |
| |year=2019
| |
| |display-editors=4
| |
| |editor-first1=H.-O. |editor-last1=Pörtner
| |
| |editor-first2=D. C. |editor-last2=Roberts
| |
| |editor-first3=V. |editor-last3=Masson-Delmotte
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| |title=IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
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| |publisher=In press
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| |isbn=<!-- Not yet assigned -->
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| |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/12/SROCC_FullReport_FINAL.pdf
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| }}
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| <!-- ## -->
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| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
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| ** {{Cite book | ref= {{harvid|IPCC SROCC Ch3|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
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| <!-- ## -->
| |
| ** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC Ch4|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
| |
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| <!-- ## -->
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|
| |
| '''Sixth Assessment Report'''
| |
| * {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}
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| |author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
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| |place= Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
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| |isbn=
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| |url= https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf
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| }}
| |
| ** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021}}
| |
| |chapter= Summary for Policymakers
| |
| |chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf
| |
| |author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
| |
| |year= 2021
| |
| |title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}
| |
| |pages=
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021}}
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| |chapter= Technical Summary
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| |last1 = Arias |first1=Paola A.
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| |display-authors=4
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| |year= 2021
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| |title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}
| |
| |pages=
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| }}
| |
| **{{Cite book
| |
| |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch11|2021}}
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| |chapter=Chapter 11: Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate
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| | last1 = Seneviratne| first1 = Sonia I.| last2 = Zhang| first2 = Xuebin| last3 = Adnan| first3 = M.| last4 = Badi| first4 = W.| last5 = Dereczynski| first5 = Claudine| last6 = Di Luca| first6 = Alejandro| last7 = Ghosh| first7 = S.
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| |chapter-url= https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_11.pdf
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| |display-authors=4
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| |title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}
| |
| |year=2021
| |
| }}
| |
| * {{cite book
| |
| |author=IPCC
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| |ref = {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG3|2022}}
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| |editor-last1 = Shukla | editor-first1 = P.R.
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| |editor-last2 = Skea |editor-first2 = J.
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| |editor-last3 = Slade |editor-first3 = R.
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| |editor-last4 = Al Khourdajie |editor-first4=A.
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| |display-editors = etal
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| |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/
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| |title = Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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| |publisher = Cambridge University Press
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| |year=2022}}
| |
| ** {{Cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2022}}
| |
| |chapter= Summary for Policymakers
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| |chapter-url= https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf
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| |author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
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| |year= 2022
| |
| |title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3|2022}}
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| {{refend}}
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| {{refend}}
| |
|
| |
| ==== Books, reports and legal documents ====
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| {{refbegin|30em}}
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| * {{cite web |ref={{harvid|NOAA|2017}}
| |
| |author=NOAA
| |
| |url=https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf
| |
| |title=January 2017 analysis from NOAA: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
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| |access-date=7 February 2019
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| |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171218140625/https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf
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| |archive-date=18 December 2017 |url-status=live }}
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| * {{cite book
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| |last1=Olivier |first1=J. G. J.
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| |last2=Peters |first2=J. A. H. W.
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| |year=2019
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| |title=Trends in global CO2 and total greenhouse gas emissions
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| |publisher=PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
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| |url=https://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/downloads/pbl-2020-trends-in-global-co2-and-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2019-report_4068.pdf
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| |place=The Hague
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| }}
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| * {{cite book
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| |chapter=The scientific consensus on climate change: How do we know we're not wrong?
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| |last1=Oreskes |first1=Naomi
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| |title=Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren
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| |editor-last1=DiMento |editor-first1=Joseph F. C.
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| |editor-last2=Doughman |editor-first2=Pamela M.
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| |publisher=The MIT Press
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| |year=2007
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| |isbn=978-0-262-54193-0
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| }}
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| * {{cite book
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| |title=Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming
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| |date=2010
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| |last1=Oreskes |first1=Naomi
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| |author1-link=Naomi Oreskes
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| |first2=Erik |last2=Conway
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| |publisher=Bloomsbury Press
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| |edition=first
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| |isbn=978-1-59691-610-4
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| }}
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| * {{Cite report | ref= {{harvid|Pew|2015}}
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| | date=November 2015
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| | title= Global Concern about Climate Change, Broad Support for Limiting Emissions
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| | url= https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2015/11/Pew-Research-Center-Climate-Change-Report-FINAL-November-5-2015.pdf
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| | access-date=5 August 2021
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| * {{cite book
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| |author=REN21
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| |year=2020
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| |title=Renewables 2020 Global Status Report
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| |url=https://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gsr_2020_full_report_en.pdf
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| |location=Paris |publisher=REN21 Secretariat
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| |isbn=978-3-948393-00-7
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| }}
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| * {{cite book
| |
| |date=13 April 2005
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| |author=Royal Society
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| |title=Economic Affairs – Written Evidence
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| |series=The Economics of Climate Change, the Second Report of the 2005–2006 session, produced by the UK Parliament House of Lords Economics Affairs Select Committee
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| |url=https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldeconaf/12/12we24.htm
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| |publisher=UK Parliament
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| |access-date=9 July 2011
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| |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111113084025/http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldeconaf/12/12we24.htm
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| |archive-date=13 November 2011
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| |url-status=live
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| }}
| |
| * {{cite book
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| |title=Global trends in climate change litigation: 2019 snapshot
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| |last1=Setzer |first1=Joana
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| |last2=Byrnes |first2=Rebecca
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| |date=July 2019
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| |publisher=the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy
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| |url=http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/GRI_Global-trends-in-climate-change-litigation-2019-snapshot.pdf
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| |location=London
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| }}
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| * {{cite report |ref={{harvid|NREL|2017}}
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| |last1 = Steinberg |first1=D.
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| |last2 = Bielen |first2=D.
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| |last3 = Eichman |first3=J.
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| |last4 = Eurek |first4=K.
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| |last5 = Logan |first5=J.
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| |last6 = Mai |first6=T.
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| |last7 = McMillan |first7=C.
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| |last8 = Parker |first8=A.
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| |display-authors= 2
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| |title= Electrification & Decarbonization: Exploring U.S. Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Scenarios with Widespread Electrification and Power Sector Decarbonization
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| |publisher= National Renewable Energy Laboratory
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| |date= July 2017
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| |location=Golden, Colorado
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| |url= https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68214.pdf
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| }}
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| * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|Teske, ed.|2019}}
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| |chapter=Executive Summary
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| |date=2019
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| |title=Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals: Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-energy GHG Pathways for +1.5 °C and +2 °C
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| |pages=xiii–xxxv
| |
| |editor-last=Teske |editor-first=Sven
| |
| |publisher=Springer International Publishing
| |
| |doi=10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2 |doi-access=free
| |
| |isbn=978-3-030-05843-2
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| |s2cid=198078901
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| |chapter-url=https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/bfm%3A978-3-030-05843-2%2F1.pdf
| |
| |url=https://apo.org.au/node/235336
| |
| }}
| |
| * {{cite book
| |
| |last1=Teske |first1=Sven
| |
| |last2=Pregger |first2=Thomas
| |
| |last3=Naegler|first3=Tobias
| |
| |last4=Simon |first4=Sonja
| |
| |last5=Pagenkopf |first5=Johannes
| |
| |last6=Vvan den Adel |first6=Bent
| |
| |last7=Deniz |first7= Özcan
| |
| |display-authors= 4
| |
| |chapter= Energy Scenario Results
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| |date=2019
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| |title=Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals: Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-energy GHG Pathways for +1.5 °C and +2 °C
| |
| |pages=175–402
| |
| |editor-last=Teske |editor-first=Sven
| |
| |publisher=Springer International Publishing
| |
| |doi=10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_8 |doi-access=free
| |
| |isbn=978-3-030-05843-2
| |
| |s2cid=
| |
| |url=https://apo.org.au/node/235336
| |
| }}
| |
| * {{cite book
| |
| |last1=Teske |first1=Sven
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| |chapter= Trajectories for a Just Transition of the Fossil Fuel Industry
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| |date=2019
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| |title=Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals: Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-energy GHG Pathways for +1.5 °C and +2 °C
| |
| |pages=403–411
| |
| |editor-last=Teske |editor-first=Sven
| |
| |publisher=Springer International Publishing
| |
| |doi=10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_9 |doi-access=free
| |
| |isbn=978-3-030-05843-2
| |
| |s2cid=133961910
| |
| |url=https://apo.org.au/node/235336
| |
| }}
| |
| * {{cite report
| |
| |author=UN FAO
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| |year=2016
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| |title=Global Forest Resources Assessment 2015. How are the world's forests changing?
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| |url=http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4793e.pdf#page=11
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| |publisher=Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
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| |isbn=978-92-5-109283-5
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| |access-date=1 December 2019
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| }}
| |
| * {{cite book
| |
| |author=United Nations Environment Programme
| |
| |year=2019
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| |title=Emissions Gap Report 2019
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| |url=https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/30797/EGR2019.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
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| |location=Nairobi
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| |isbn=978-92-807-3766-0
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| }}
| |
| * {{cite book
| |
| |author=United Nations Environment Programme
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| |year=2021
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| |title=Emissions Gap Report 2021
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| |url=https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/36991/EGR21_ESEN.pdf
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| |location=Nairobi
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| |isbn=978-92-807-3890-2
| |
| }}
| |
| * {{cite book|author = UNEP |year= 2018|title=The Adaptation Gap Report 2018|location=Nairobi, Kenya|url =https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report|isbn=978-92-807-3728-8|publisher = United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)}}
| |
| * {{cite conference
| |
| |year =1992
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| |author=UNFCCC |author-link=UNFCCC
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| |title=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
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| |url=https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf
| |
| }}
| |
| <!-- ## -->
| |
| * {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Kyoto Protocol|1997}}
| |
| |date =1997
| |
| |author=UNFCCC |author-link=UNFCCC
| |
| |title=Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
| |
| |publisher=United Nations
| |
| |url=https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html
| |
| }}
| |
| <!-- ## -->
| |
| <!-- Example: Decision 2/CP.15 in {{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009|loc=}} -->
| |
| <!-- Cite by paragraph, as page numbering is variable. -->
| |
| * {{cite conference |ref={{harvid|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}
| |
| |date =30 March 2010
| |
| |author=UNFCCC |author-link=UNFCCC
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| |chapter=Decision 2/CP.15: Copenhagen Accord
| |
| |title=Report of the Conference of the Parties on its fifteenth session, held in Copenhagen from 7 to 19 December 2009
| |
| |id =FCCC/CP/2009/11/Add.1
| |
| |publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
| |
| |chapter-url=http://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/3594.php?rec=j&priref=600005735#beg
| |
| |access-date=17 May 2010
| |
| |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100430005322/https://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/3594.php?rec=j&priref=600005735#beg
| |
| |archive-date=30 April 2010
| |
| |url-status=live
| |
| }}
| |
| <!-- ## -->
| |
| * {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Paris Agreement|2015}}
| |
| |date =2015
| |
| |author=UNFCCC |author-link=UNFCCC
| |
| |title=Paris Agreement
| |
| |publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
| |
| |url=https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/convention/application/pdf/english_paris_agreement.pdf
| |
| }}
| |
| <!-- ## -->
| |
| * {{cite report |ref={{harvid|UN NDC Synthesis Report|2021}}
| |
| | author = UNFCCC
| |
| | author-link = UNFCCC
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| | date = 26 February 2021
| |
| | title = Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement Synthesis report by the secretariat
| |
| | url = https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2021_02E.pdf
| |
| | publisher = [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]]
| |
| }}
| |
| <!-- ## -->
| |
| * {{cite web |ref={{harvid|UNHCR|2011}}
| |
| |title=Climate Change and the Risk of Statelessness: The Situation of Low-lying Island States
| |
| |last=Park |first=Susin
| |
| |date=May 2011
| |
| |publisher=United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
| |
| |url=http://www.unhcr.org/4df9cb0c9.pdf
| |
| |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130502223251/http://www.unhcr.org/4df9cb0c9.pdf
| |
| |archive-date=2 May 2013|url-status=live|access-date=13 April 2012
| |
| }}
| |
| * {{cite report
| |
| |author=United States Environmental Protection Agency
| |
| |year=2016
| |
| |title=Methane and Black Carbon Impacts on the Arctic: Communicating the Science
| |
| |url=https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-change-science/methane-and-black-carbon-impacts-arctic-communicating-science_.html
| |
| |access-date=27 February 2019
| |
| |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170906225344/https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-change-science/methane-and-black-carbon-impacts-arctic-communicating-science_.html
| |
| |archive-date=6 September 2017 |url-status=live
| |
| }}
| |
| * {{cite journal
| |
| |last1=Van Oldenborgh |first1=Geert-Jan
| |
| |last2=Philip |first2=Sjoukje
| |
| |last3=Kew |first3=Sarah
| |
| |last4=Vautard |first4=Robert
| |
| |display-authors=etal
| |
| |date=2019
| |
| |website=Semantic Scholar
| |
| |s2cid=199454488 |title=Human contribution to the record-breaking June 2019 heat wave in France
| |
| }}
| |
| * {{cite report|ref={{harvid|World Bank, June|2019}}
| |
| |title=State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2019
| |
| |url=http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/191801559846379845/pdf/State-and-Trends-of-Carbon-Pricing-2019.pdf
| |
| |date=June 2019
| |
| |publisher=World Bank
| |
| |location=Washington, D.C.
| |
| |doi=10.1596/978-1-4648-1435-8
| |
| |hdl=10986/29687
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| |isbn=978-1-4648-1435-8
| |
| |hdl-access=free
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| }}
| |
| * {{cite report |ref={{harvid|WHO|2014}}
| |
| |author=World Health Organization
| |
| |year=2014
| |
| |title=Quantitative risk assessment of the effects of climate change on selected causes of death, 2030s and 2050s
| |
| |location=Geneva, Switzerland
| |
| |isbn=978-92-4-150769-1
| |
| |url=https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/134014/9789241507691_eng.pdf
| |
| }}
| |
| * {{Cite report |ref={{harvid|WHO|2016}}
| |
| | author= World Health Organization
| |
| | year= 2016
| |
| | title=Ambient air pollution: a global assessment of exposure and burden of disease
| |
| | location= Geneva, Switzerland
| |
| | isbn = 978-92-4-1511353
| |
| | url= https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1061179/retrieve
| |
| }}
| |
| * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|WHO|2018}}
| |
| |author=World Health Organization
| |
| |title=COP24 Special Report Health and Climate Change
| |
| |url=https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/276405/9789241514972-eng.pdf?ua=1
| |
| |year=2018
| |
| |location=Geneva
| |
| |isbn=978-92-4-151497-2
| |
| }}
| |
| * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|WMO|2021}}
| |
| |author=[[World Meteorological Organization]]
| |
| |title=WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2020
| |
| |url=https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10618
| |
| |year=2021
| |
| |location=Geneva
| |
| |series=WMO-No. 1264
| |
| |isbn=978-92-63-11264-4
| |
| }}
| |
| * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|World Resources Institute, December|2019}}
| |
| |author=World Resources Institute
| |
| |date=December 2019
| |
| |title=Creating a Sustainable Food Future: A Menu of Solutions to Feed Nearly 10 Billion People by 2050
| |
| |location=Washington, D.C.
| |
| |url=https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/wrr-food-full-report.pdf
| |
| |isbn=978-1-56973-953-2
| |
| }}
| |
| {{refend}}
| |
|
| |
| ==== Non-technical sources ====
| |
| {{refbegin|30em}}
| |
| * ''[[American Institute of Physics]]''
| |
| ** {{cite book
| |
| |ref=none
| |
| |last=Weart
| |
| |first=Spencer
| |
| |date=October 2008
| |
| |title=The Discovery of Global Warming
| |
| |edition=2nd
| |
| |location=Cambridge, MA
| |
| |publisher=Harvard University Press
| |
| |isbn=978-0-674-03189-0
| |
| |url=http://history.aip.org/climate/reviews.htm
| |
| |access-date=16 June 2020
| |
| |url-status=live
| |
| |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161118000413/http://history.aip.org/climate/reviews.htm
| |
| |archive-date=18 November 2016}}
| |
| ** {{cite book
| |
| |ref=none
| |
| |last=Weart
| |
| |first=Spencer
| |
| |date=February 2019
| |
| |title=The Discovery of Global Warming
| |
| |edition=online
| |
| |url=http://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm
| |
| |access-date=19 June 2020
| |
| |url-status=live
| |
| |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200618075616/http://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm
| |
| |archive-date=18 June 2020
| |
| |author-link=Spencer R. Weart}}
| |
| *** {{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
| |
| |last =Weart |first=Spencer
| |
| |date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
| |
| |title=The Discovery of Global Warming
| |
| |chapter=The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect
| |
| |chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm
| |
| |access-date=19 June 2020
| |
| |publisher=American Institute of Physics
| |
| |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191800/http://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm
| |
| |archive-date=11 November 2016
| |
| |url-status=live
| |
| }}
| |
| *** {{citation|ref=none |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
| |
| |last =Weart |first=Spencer
| |
| |date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
| |
| |title=The Discovery of Global Warming
| |
| |chapter=The Public and Climate Change
| |
| |chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm
| |
| |access-date=19 June 2020
| |
| |publisher =American Institute of Physics
| |
| |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191711/http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm
| |
| |archive-date=11 November 2016
| |
| |url-status=live
| |
| }}
| |
| **** {{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
| |
| |last =Weart |first=Spencer
| |
| |date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
| |
| |title=The Discovery of Global Warming
| |
| |chapter=The Public and Climate Change: Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)
| |
| |chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm#S2
| |
| |access-date=19 June 2020
| |
| |publisher =American Institute of Physics
| |
| |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191711/http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm#S2
| |
| |archive-date=11 November 2016
| |
| |url-status=live
| |
| }}
| |
| *** {{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "The Public and Climate Change (since 1980)"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
| |
| |last1=Weart |first1=Spencer
| |
| |date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
| |
| |title=The Discovery of Global warming
| |
| |chapter=The Public and Climate Change (cont. – since 1980)
| |
| |chapter-url=https://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm
| |
| |access-date=19 June 2020
| |
| |publisher =American Institute of Physics
| |
| |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191659/http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm
| |
| |archive-date=11 November 2016
| |
| |url-status=live
| |
| }}
| |
| **** {{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
| |
| |first=Spencer |last=Weart
| |
| |date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
| |
| |title=The Discovery of Global Warming
| |
| |chapter=The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988
| |
| |chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm#S1988
| |
| |access-date=19 June 2020
| |
| |publisher=American Institute of Physics
| |
| |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191659/http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm#S1988
| |
| |archive-date=11 November 2016
| |
| |url-status=live
| |
| }}
| |
| * ''[[Associated Press]]''
| |
| ** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Associated Press, 22 September|2015}}
| |
| |url=https://www.apstylebook.com/blog_posts/4
| |
| |title=An addition to AP Stylebook entry on global warming
| |
| |last=Colford
| |
| |first=Paul
| |
| |date=22 September 2015
| |
| |website=AP Style Blog
| |
| |access-date=6 November 2019}}
| |
| * ''[[BBC]]''
| |
| ** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|BBC, 1 May|2019}}
| |
| |date=1 May 2019
| |
| |title=UK Parliament declares climate change emergency
| |
| |publisher=BBC
| |
| |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48126677
| |
| |access-date=30 June 2019
| |
| }}
| |
| ** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|BBC Science Focus Magazine, 3 February|2020}}
| |
| |last=Rigby |first=Sara
| |
| |date=3 February 2020
| |
| |title=Climate change: should we change the terminology?
| |
| |website=BBC Science Focus Magazine
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| |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190305004530/https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work
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| |publisher=Ecowatch
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|
| |
| * ''[[The Guardian]]''<!--
| |
| |issn=0261-3077 - not needed, nor location.
| |
| The parameters for harvid should match the first two parameters
| |
| used in harvnb for the short-cite in the text. -->
| |
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| |newspaper=The Guardian
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| |archive-date=20 March 2019|url-status=live
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| }}
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| ** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 17 May|2019}}
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| |newspaper=The Guardian
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| }}
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| |url =https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/26/opinion/kevin-rudd-paris-cant-be-another-copenhagen.html
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| |
|
| |
| * ''[[RIVM]]''
| |
| ** {{cite AV media |ref={{harvid|RIVM|2016}}
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| |date=11 October 2016
| |
| |title=Documentary Sea Blind
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| |medium=Dutch Television
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| |language=nl
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| |url=http://www.rivm.nl/en/Documents_and_publications/Common_and_Present/Newsmessages/2016/Documentary_Sea_Blind_on_Dutch_Television
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| |access-date=26 February 2019
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| |publisher=RIVM: Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment
| |
| |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180817055817/https://www.rivm.nl/en/Documents_and_publications/Common_and_Present/Newsmessages/2016/Documentary_Sea_Blind_on_Dutch_Television
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| |archive-date=17 August 2018
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| |url-status=live }}
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| * ''[[Salon (website)|Salon]]''
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| ** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Salon, 25 September|2019}}
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| |first=Evelyn |last=Leopold
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| |title=How leaders planned to avert climate catastrophe at the UN (while Trump hung out in the basement)
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| |url=https://www.salon.com/2019/09/25/how-serious-people-planned-to-avert-climate-catastrophe-at-the-un-while-trump-hung-out-in-the-basement_partner/
| |
| |date=25 September 2019
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| |website=Salon
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|
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| |last1=Gleick |first1=Peter
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| |title=Statements on Climate Change from Major Scientific Academies, Societies, and Associations (January 2017 update)
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| |date=7 January 2017
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| |access-date=2 April 2020
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| |url=https://scienceblogs.com/significantfigures/index.php/2017/01/07/statements-on-climate-change-from-major-scientific-academies-societies-and-associations-january-2017-update
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| |work=ScienceBlogs
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| }}
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| * ''[[Scientific American]]''
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| ** {{cite magazine |ref={{harvid|Scientific American, 29 April|2014}}
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| |title=Indian Monsoons Are Becoming More Extreme
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| |last=Ogburn |first=Stephanie Paige
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| |date=29 April 2014
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| |url=https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/indian-monsoons-are-becoming-more-extreme/
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| |magazine=Scientific American
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| |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180622193126/https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/indian-monsoons-are-becoming-more-extreme/
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| |url-status=live }}
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| * ''[[Smithsonian]]''
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| ** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Smithsonian, 26 June|2016}}
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| |title=Studying the Climate of the Past Is Essential for Preparing for Today's Rapidly Changing Climate
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| |last=Wing|first=Scott L.
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| |website=Smithsonian
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|
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| |access-date=8 November 2019
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|
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|
| |
| * ''The Sustainability Consortium''
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| |date=13 September 2018
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| |title=One-Fourth of Global Forest Loss Permanent: Deforestation Is Not Slowing Down
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| |access-date=1 December 2019
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| }}
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| * ''UN Environment''
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| ** {{cite web
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| |title=Curbing environmentally unsafe, irregular and disorderly migration
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| |website=UN Environment
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| |date=25 October 2018
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| |access-date=18 April 2019
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| |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190418154922/https://www.unenvironment.org/pt-br/node/23761
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| |archive-date=18 April 2019
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| |url-status=live
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| }}
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| * ''[[UNFCCC]]''
| |
| ** {{cite web
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| |ref={{harvid|UNFCCC, "What are United Nations Climate Change Conferences?"}}
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| |title=What are United Nations Climate Change Conferences?
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| |website=UNFCCC
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| |access-date=12 May 2019
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| |url=https://unfccc.int/process/conferences/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences
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| |url-status=live
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| }}
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| ** {{cite web
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| |title=What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?
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| |website=UNFCCC
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| |url=https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change
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| }}
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| * ''[[Union of Concerned Scientists]]''
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| }}
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| * ''[[USA Today]]''
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| |website=USA Today
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| * ''[[Vice (website)|Vice]]''
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| ** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Vice, 2 May|2019}}
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| |access-date=30 June 2019 |date=2 May 2019 }}
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| * ''[[The Verge]]''
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| ** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|The Verge, 27 December|2019}}
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| }}
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| * ''World Health Organization''
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| ** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|WHO, Nov|2015}}
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| |date=November 2015
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| }}
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| * ''[[World Resources Institute]]''
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| |archive-date=1 April 2021
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| |url-status=live }} ● ''Mongabay'' graphing WRI data from {{cite web
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| |url=https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-extent-indicators/forest-loss
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| |website=research.WRI.org
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| |publisher=World Resources Institute — Global Forest Review
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| }}
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| |first2=David |last2=Gibbs
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| }}
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| * ''[[Yale]] Climate Connections''
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| ** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Yale Climate Connections, 2 November|2010}}
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| |title=Yale Researcher Anthony Leiserowitz on Studying, Communicating with American Public
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| |date=2 November 2010
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| |access-date=30 July 2018
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| |url=https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/11/communicating-with-american-public
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| |
| |archive-date=7 February 2019
| |
| |url-status=live
| |
| }}
| |
| {{refend}}
| |
|
| |
| == External links ==
| |
| {{Spoken Wikipedia|date=30 October 2021|En-Climate_change-article.ogg}}
| |
| {{Scholia}}
| |
| {{Library resources box
| |
| |by=no
| |
| |onlinebooks=no
| |
| |others=yes
| |
| |lcheading=Climate change}}
| |
| * [http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-guide Met Office: Climate Guide] – UK National Weather Service
| |
| * [https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/indicators.php Global Climate Change Indicators] – NOAA
| |
| * [https://www.globalwarmingindex.org Up-to-the-second assessment of human-induced global warming since the second half of the 19th century] – Oxford University
| |
| {{Subject bar|wikt=climate change|b=Climate Change|q=Climate change|commons=Category:Climate change|n=Category:Climate change|v=Climate change|s=Climate change}}
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| {{Climate change|state=expanded}}
| |
| {{Human impact on the environment}}
| |
| {{Earth}}
| |
| {{Doomsday}}
| |
| {{Authority control|state=expanded}}
| |
|
| |
| [[Category:Anthropocene]]
| |
| [[Category:Climate change| ]] | | [[Category:Climate change| ]] |
| [[Category:History of climate variability and change]]
| |
| [[Category:Global environmental issues]]
| |
| [[Category:Articles containing video clips]]
| |
| [[Category:Human impact on the environment]]
| |
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