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2018 United States Senate election in Indiana


For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2018 Indiana State Senate election.

Template:Elections in Indiana

2018 United States Senate election in Indiana
Template:Country data Indiana
← 2012 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2024 →
Turnout50.42% Decrease
  Mike Braun, Official Portrait, 116th Congress.jpg Joe Donnelly, official portrait, 113th Congress.jpg
Nominee Mike Braun Joe Donnelly
Party Republican Party (United States) Democratic Party (United States)
Popular vote 1,161,546 1,025,178
Percentage 50.8% 44.8%
2018 United States Senate election in Indiana results map by county.svg
2018 United States Senate election in Indiana by Congressional District.svg
2018 Indiana Senate Election by State House Districts.svg
Braun: Template:Legend0 Template:Legend0 Template:Legend0 Template:Legend0
Donnelly: Template:Legend0 Template:Legend0 Template:Legend0
U.S. senator before election

Joe Donnelly
Democratic Party (United States)

Elected U.S. Senator

Mike Braun
Republican Party (United States)

The 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly sought re-election to a second term, facing Republican businessman and former state representative Mike Braun and Libertarian Party nominee Lucy Brenton. Braun defeated Donnelly in the general election by a margin of 6 percent.

In 2017, Politico described the race as "possibly the GOP's best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats" in the 2018 elections.[1] The primary election was held on May 8, 2018.[2] In October 2018, RealClearPolitics rated the race a toss-up between the Democratic and Republican nominees, with the Libertarian receiving a poll average of 6%.[3]

BackgroundEdit

In 2012, Joe Donnelly was elected to the Senate with 50% of the vote to Republican nominee Richard Mourdock's 44%. In the 2016 presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump won Indiana with about 56.5% of the vote to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's 37.5%.[4][5]

Democratic primaryEdit

CandidatesEdit

NomineeEdit

WithdrewEdit

  • Martin Del Rio, Iraq War veteran[7][8]

EndorsementsEdit

Template:Endorsements box

ResultsEdit

Template:Election box begin no change Template:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Template:Election box total no change

|}

Republican primaryEdit

CandidatesEdit

NomineeEdit

Eliminated in the primary electionEdit

DeclinedEdit

WithdrawnEdit

EndorsementsEdit

Template:Endorsements box

Template:Endorsements box

Template:Endorsements box

PollingEdit

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Luke
Messer 		Todd
Rokita 		Mike
Braun 		Other Undecided
Strategic National (R) May 5–6, 2018 300 ± 5.7% 29% 28% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% – –
Gravis Marketing Archived November 28, 2020, at the Wayback Machine April 6–11, 2018 280 ± 5.9% 13% 16% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 26% – Template:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 45%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) January 6–9, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 9% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 24% 9% – Template:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 58%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) July 16–18, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 20% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 28% – – Template:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 51%
14% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 21% 11% – Template:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 55%
OnMedia (R-Messer) Archived August 13, 2017, at the Wayback Machine July 10–12, 2017 400 ± 4.8% 23% 23% 2% 7%[lower-alpha 1] Template:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 45%

ResultsEdit

 
Results by county:

Template:Election box begin no change Template:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Template:Election box candidate with party link no change Template:Election box candidate with party link no change Template:Election box total no change

|}

IndependentEdit

CandidatesEdit

DeclaredEdit

  • James Johnson, Jr.[33]

General electionEdit

CandidatesEdit

  • Mike Braun, businessman and former state representative (R)
  • Lucy Brenton (L)
  • Joe Donnelly, incumbent (D)
  • James Johnson, Jr. (I)

DebatesEdit

PredictionsEdit

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[34] Template:USRaceRating October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[35] Template:USRaceRating November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[36] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
CNN[37] Tossup November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[38] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[39] Tossup November 5, 2018
Fox News[40] Tossup November 5, 2018

FundraisingEdit

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Template:Party shading/Democratic|Joe Donnelly (D) $16,100,528 $13,872,981 $2,321,981
Template:Party shading/Republican|Mike Braun (R) $16,964,706 $15,576,842 $1,387,861
Source: Federal Election Commission[41]

EndorsementsEdit

Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box

PollingEdit

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Donnelly (D) 		Mike
Braun (R) 		Lucy
Brenton (L) 		Other Undecided
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% – – –
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 41% – – –
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 42% – – –
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 42% – – –
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 43% 43% – – –
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 40% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% – – –
Fox News October 27–30, 2018 722 LV ± 3.5% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 38% 5% 2% 9%
852 RV ± 3.0% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% 38% 6% 2% 11%
HarrisX Archived November 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 42% 42% – – –
NBC News/Marist October 24–28, 2018 496 LV ± 5.5% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 42% 7% <1% 5%
Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 46% – 2% 5%
800 RV ± 4.2% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 40% 9% <1% 7%
Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 45% – 2% 7%
Cygnal (R) October 26–27, 2018 505 ± 4.4% 46% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% – 3% 2%
YouGov October 23–26, 2018 975 ± 3.7% 43% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 3% 0% 8%
Mason Strategies (R) October 15–20, 2018 600 ± 3.9% 43% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 3% – 7%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) October 14–17, 2018 800 – 40% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% 7% – 5%
SurveyUSA October 12–16, 2018 816 ± 4.6% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% 40% 8% – 11%
Gravis Marketing October 12–16, 2018 377 ± 5.1% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 40% 7% – 10%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–15, 2018 783 ± 3.5% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% 45% – – –
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) October 7–10, 2018 800 – 40% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% 7% – 7%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) September 30 – October 3, 2018 800 – 39% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% 7% – 5%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 695 LV ± 3.5% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 41% 6% 2% 9%
806 RV ± 3.5% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% 40% 6% 1% 10%
Ipsos September 12–20, 2018 1,181 ± 3.0% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 43% – 3% 8%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 677 LV ± 3.5% 43% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 45% 3% 1% 8%
804 RV ± 3.5% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% 41% 4% 1% 10%
NBC News/Marist August 26–29, 2018 576 LV ± 5.0% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 41% 8% 1% 6%
Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 43% – 2% 7%
816 RV ± 4.2% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 40% 8% 1% 8%
Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 42% – 2% 9%
Trafalgar Group (R) July 31 – August 7, 2018 1,420 ± 2.6% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 39% – – 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 952 ± 5.0% 47% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% – – 4%
Gravis Marketing May 10–15, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 46% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% – – 7%
Hypothetical polling
with Todd Rokita
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Donnelly (D) 		Todd
Rokita (R) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing Archived November 28, 2020, at the Wayback Machine April 6–11, 2018 411 ± 4.8% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% 32% 18%
with Luke Messer
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Donnelly (D) 		Luke
Messer (R) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing Archived November 28, 2020, at the Wayback Machine April 6–11, 2018 411 ± 4.8% Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 36% 18%
with generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Donnelly (D) 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018 1,809 ± 3.8% 45% Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 4%

ResultsEdit

On November 6, 2018, Braun won the general election.[42] He swept southern Indiana, the exurbs of Indianapolis, and most other rural areas in the state. Donnelly ran well behind his 2012 vote totals, winning only in Indianapolis, the university centers (Bloomington, Terre Haute, West Lafayette, South Bend), and the suburbs of Chicago in Northwest Indiana.[43]

Template:Election box write-in with party linkTemplate:Election box total
United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018[44]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
style="background-color: Template:Republican Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Republican Party (United States)|Template:Republican Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Mike Braun 1,161,546 50.77% +6.45%
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Joe Donnelly (incumbent) 1,025,178 44.81% -5.20%
style="background-color: Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Libertarian Party (United States)|Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Lucy Brenton 101,153 4.42% -1.26%
style="background-color: Template:Republican Party (United States)/meta/color" | [[Republican Party (United States)|Template:Republican Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] gain from [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]]

By congressional districtEdit

Braun won 6 of 9 congressional districts. Donnelly won one held by a republican

District Braun Donnelly Elected
Representative
Template:Party shading/Democratic|1st 37.9% 60.6% Template:Party shading/Democratic|Pete Visclosky
Template:Party shading/Republican|2nd 51.0% 45.5% Template:Party shading/Republican|Jackie Walorski
Template:Party shading/Republican|3rd 59.6% 36.7% Template:Party shading/Republican|Jim Banks
Template:Party shading/Republican|4th 57.9% 37.4% Template:Party shading/Republican|Jim Baird
Template:Party shading/Democratic|5th 47.9% 48.4% Template:Party shading/Republican|Susan Brooks
Template:Party shading/Republican|6th 60.8% 34.3% Template:Party shading/Republican|Greg Pence
Template:Party shading/Democratic|7th 31.8% 64.5% Template:Party shading/Democratic|André Carson
Template:Party shading/Republican|8th 57.3% 38.4% Template:Party shading/Republican|Larry Bucshon
Template:Party shading/Republican|9th 54.3% 41.5% Template:Party shading/Republican|Trey Hollingsworth

Voter DemographicsEdit

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Template:Party shading/Democratic | Donnelly Template:Party shading/Republican | Braun No
Answer 		% of
Voters
Gender
Men 40 57 3 49
Women 49 46 5 51
Age
18–29 years old 48 45 7 13
30–44 years old 49 43 8 20
45–64 years old 44 54 3 39
65 and older 41 57 1 28
Race
White 40 56 4 86
Black 88 11 1 8
Latino 71 22 6 3
Asian N/A N/A N/A 1
Other N/A N/A N/A 2
Race by gender
White men 35 62 3 42
White women 44 51 5 44
Black men 82 15 2 4
Black women 95 5 0 4
Latino men N/A N/A N/A 1
Latina women N/A N/A N/A 2
Others N/A N/A N/A 2
Education
High school or less 40 56 4 23
Some college education 40 54 6 26
Associate degree 41 55 4 13
Bachelor's degree 46 51 3 22
Advanced degree 61 36 2 16
Education and race
White college graduates 49 48 3 34
White no college degree 33 62 5 53
Non-white college graduates 80 19 2 4
Non-white no college degree 76 20 4 10
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees 57 39 4 17
White women without college degrees 36 59 6 27
White men with college degrees 41 57 2 17
White men without college degrees 31 65 4 26
Non-whites 77 20 3 14
Income
Under $30,000 49 44 8 15
$30,000–49,999 46 49 4 23
$50,000–99,999 44 55 2 35
$100,000–199,999 44 52 4 22
Over $200,000 N/A N/A N/A 5
Party ID
Democrats 92 6 2 29
Republicans 8 90 2 39
Independents 47 44 9 31
Party by gender
Democratic men 92 6 2 12
Democratic women 93 5 2 18
Republican men 8 91 1 19
Republican women 8 90 2 20
Independent men 42 52 7 18
Independent women 55 33 12 13
Ideology
Liberals 86 8 6 20
Moderates 59 37 5 40
Conservatives 10 88 2 40
Marital status
Married 43 54 3 61
Unmarried 51 46 3 39
Gender by marital status
Married men 38 60 2 31
Married women 48 49 3 30
Unmarried men 42 53 5 19
Unmarried women 61 39 1 20
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 41 53 6 15
No 46 51 3 85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 70 26 4 41
Immigration 10 85 5 27
Economy 31 66 3 21
Gun policy 66 31 3 8
Area type
Urban 63 33 4 31
Suburban 44 53 3 44
Rural 37 58 5 25
Source: CNN[45]

NotesEdit

  1. ↑ Curtis Hill* 4%; Mark Hurt†, Terry Henderson†, and Andrew Takami† with 1%. *Hypothetical candidate. †Withdrawn.

ReferencesEdit

  1. ↑ Strauss, Daniel (August 14, 2017). "Missouri's $10M man". Politico. Archived from the original on May 9, 2018. Retrieved December 23, 2017.
  2. ↑ "United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018". Ballotpedia. Retrieved December 23, 2017.
  3. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2018 - Indiana Senate - Braun vs. Donnelly vs. Brenton". realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
  4. ↑ "Indiana Election Results 2016". The New York Times. August 1, 2017.
  5. ↑ "Secretary of State : Election Division: Election Results". in.gov.
  6. ↑ Bottorff, Kathy (January 7, 2017). "Hanscom to Manage Sen. Donnelly Reelect". WTCA. Retrieved January 21, 2017.
  7. ↑ "VOTE MARTIN DEL RIO - committee overview - FEC.gov". FEC.gov. Retrieved October 25, 2017.
  8. ↑ "Democrat ends US Senate bid - Political notebook - Journal Gazette". journalgazette.net.
  9. ↑ Grant, Mike (August 2, 2017). "Braun set for U.S. Senate run". Washington Times-Herald. Retrieved August 8, 2017.
  10. ↑ Pathé, Simone (November 6, 2017). "Businessman Makes Indiana Senate Primary Three-Person Race" – via www.rollcall.com.
  11. ↑ Pathé, Simone (July 26, 2017). "Indiana Rep. Luke Messer Running for Senate". Roll Call. Retrieved July 26, 2017.
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 Railey, Kimberly (January 31, 2017). "In light of @SusanWBrooks passing on #insen". Twitter. Retrieved February 3, 2017.
  13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 Groppe, Maureen (January 31, 2017). "Brooks won't challenge Donnelly for U.S. Senate seat". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved January 31, 2017.
  14. ↑ "The Latest: Rokita to Formally Announce Indiana Senate Bid". The New York Times. Associated Press. August 8, 2017. Retrieved August 8, 2017.
  15. ↑ Pathe, Simone (March 23, 2017). "Indiana Headed for Another Member-on-Member Senate Primary". Roll Call. Retrieved March 24, 2017.
  16. ↑ "Rep. Brooks endorses Messer for Senate - Political notebook - Journal Gazette". journalgazette.net.
  17. ↑ Howey, Brian A. (August 10, 2017). "Rokita announces with Delph support" (PDF). Howey Politics. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 11, 2017. Retrieved August 10, 2017.
  18. ↑ Colwell, Jack (November 27, 2016). "Here's how big Walorski's win was". South Bend Tribune. Retrieved November 28, 2016.
  19. ↑ Pathé, Simone (November 28, 2016). "Republican Gender Gap Could Grow in the House". Roll Call. Retrieved November 28, 2016.
  20. ↑ Hudson, Melissa. "Jackie Walorski files for re-election". ABC 57 News. Retrieved February 7, 2018.
  21. ↑ Colombo, Hayleigh (April 8, 2017). "Republicans jockey to take on Donnelly in 2018". Indianapolis Business Journal. Retrieved April 11, 2017.
  22. ↑ Francisco, Brian (November 13, 2017). "Henderson quits U.S. Senate race". The Journal Gazette. Retrieved November 14, 2017.
  23. ↑ "MIKE BRAUN EARNS KEY ENDORSEMENT". City-County Observer. February 8, 2018.
  24. ↑ Hakim-Shabazz, Abdul. "Horning for Senate". IndyPolitics.org. Retrieved December 8, 2017.
  25. ↑ "5 area state legislators facing primary challengers - Local politics - Journal Gazette". journalgazette.net. Archived from the original on February 10, 2018. Retrieved February 10, 2018.
  26. ↑ Myers, George (February 1, 2017). "Kokomo lawyer Mark Hurt announces US Senate bid". News and Tribune. Retrieved February 3, 2017.
  27. ↑ Tribune, George Myers Kokomo. "Kokomo attorney Hurt, citing FedEx troubles and relocating residents, falls short of required signatures for candidacy".
  28. ↑ "Mark Hurt on Twitter".
  29. ↑ "Mark Hurt on Twitter".
  30. ↑ "Purdue Polytechnic director Andrew".
  31. ↑ "Andrew Takami on Twitter". Twitter.
  32. ↑ "Messer Endorsed By Former Senate Candidate Andrew Takami". Luke Messer for Senate. April 9, 2018. Archived from the original on April 12, 2018. Retrieved April 11, 2018.
  33. ↑ "Candidate list" (PDF). in.gov. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 11, 2018. Retrieved April 6, 2018.
  34. ↑ "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  35. ↑ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  36. ↑ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  37. ↑ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  38. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  39. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  40. ↑ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  41. ↑ "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  42. ↑ "Indiana Election Results". CNN. November 9, 2018.
  43. ↑ Lange, Kaitlin. "Why Indiana Democrats are flailing and how they might find a road back". Indianapolis Star. Retrieved November 13, 2018.
  44. ↑ "Indiana Election Results". in.gov/sos/elections/index.htm. Archived from the original on May 6, 2019. Retrieved November 19, 2018.
  45. ↑ "Georgia Gubernatorial election exit poll". CNN. Archived from the original on January 5, 2021. Retrieved April 1, 2019.

External linksEdit

Official campaign websites

Template:2018 United States elections

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