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2018 United States Senate election in Indiana
Template:Country data Indiana
← 2012 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2024 →
Turnout50.42% Decrease
 
Nominee Mike Braun Joe Donnelly
Party Republican Party (United States) Democratic Party (United States)
Popular vote 1,161,546 1,025,178
Percentage 50.8% 44.8%

Braun: Template:Legend0 Template:Legend0 Template:Legend0 Template:Legend0
Donnelly: Template:Legend0 Template:Legend0 Template:Legend0

U.S. senator before election

Joe Donnelly
Democratic Party (United States)

Elected U.S. Senator

Mike Braun
Republican Party (United States)

Template:Elections in Indiana

The 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly sought re-election to a second term, facing Republican businessman and former state representative Mike Braun and Libertarian Party nominee Lucy Brenton. Braun defeated Donnelly in the general election by a margin of 6 percent.

In 2017, Politico described the race as "possibly the GOP's best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats" in the 2018 elections.[1] The primary election was held on May 8, 2018.[2] In October 2018, RealClearPolitics rated the race a toss-up between the Democratic and Republican nominees, with the Libertarian receiving a poll average of 6%.[3]

Background[edit | edit source]

In 2012, Joe Donnelly was elected to the Senate with 50% of the vote to Republican nominee Richard Mourdock's 44%. In the 2016 presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump won Indiana with about 56.5% of the vote to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's 37.5%.[4][5]

Democratic primary[edit | edit source]

Candidates[edit | edit source]

Nominee[edit | edit source]

Withdrew[edit | edit source]

  • Martin Del Rio, Iraq War veteran[7][8]

Endorsements[edit | edit source]

Template:Endorsements box

Results[edit | edit source]

Democratic primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joe Donnelly (incumbent) 284,621 100.00%
Total votes 284,621 100.00%

Republican primary[edit | edit source]

Candidates[edit | edit source]

Nominee[edit | edit source]

Eliminated in the primary election[edit | edit source]

Declined[edit | edit source]

Withdrawn[edit | edit source]

Endorsements[edit | edit source]

Template:Endorsements box

Template:Endorsements box

Template:Endorsements box

Polling[edit | edit source]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Luke
Messer
Todd
Rokita
Mike
Braun
Other Undecided
Strategic National (R) May 5–6, 2018 300 ± 5.7% 29% 28% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 44%
Gravis Marketing Archived November 28, 2020, at the Wayback Machine April 6–11, 2018 280 ± 5.9% 13% 16% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 26% 45%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) January 6–9, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 9% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 24% 9% 58%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) July 16–18, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 20% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 28% 51%
14% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 21% 11% 55%
OnMedia (R-Messer) Archived August 13, 2017, at the Wayback Machine July 10–12, 2017 400 ± 4.8% 23% 23% 2% 7%[lower-alpha 1] 45%

Results[edit | edit source]

Results by county:
Republican primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Braun 208,602 41.17%
Republican Todd Rokita 151,967 29.99%
Republican Luke Messer 146,131 28.84%
Total votes 506,700 100.00%

Independent[edit | edit source]

Candidates[edit | edit source]

Declared[edit | edit source]

  • James Johnson, Jr.[34]

General election[edit | edit source]

Candidates[edit | edit source]

  • Mike Braun, businessman and former state representative (R)
  • Lucy Brenton (L)
  • Joe Donnelly, incumbent (D)
  • James Johnson, Jr. (I)

Debates[edit | edit source]

Predictions[edit | edit source]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[35] Template:USRaceRating October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[36] Template:USRaceRating November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
CNN[38] Tossup November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[39] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[40] Tossup November 5, 2018
Fox News[41] Tossup November 5, 2018

Fundraising[edit | edit source]

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading"|Joe Donnelly (D) $16,100,528 $13,872,981 $2,321,981
style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading"|Mike Braun (R) $16,964,706 $15,576,842 $1,387,861
Source: Federal Election Commission[42]

Endorsements[edit | edit source]

Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box

Polling[edit | edit source]

Graphical summary

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Donnelly (D)
Mike
Braun (R)
Lucy
Brenton (L)
Other Undecided
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 43%
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 43% 41%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 43% 42%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 44% 42%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 43% 43%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 40% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 43%
Fox News October 27–30, 2018 722 LV ± 3.5% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 45% 38% 5% 2% 9%
852 RV ± 3.0% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 42% 38% 6% 2% 11%
HarrisX Archived November 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 42% 42%
NBC News/Marist October 24–28, 2018 496 LV ± 5.5% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 45% 42% 7% <1% 5%
style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 48% 46% 2% 5%
800 RV ± 4.2% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 43% 40% 9% <1% 7%
style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 47% 45% 2% 7%
Cygnal (R) October 26–27, 2018 505 ± 4.4% 46% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 49% 3% 2%
YouGov October 23–26, 2018 975 ± 3.7% 43% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 46% 3% 0% 8%
Mason Strategies (R) October 15–20, 2018 600 ± 3.9% 43% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 47% 3% 7%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) October 14–17, 2018 800 40% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 44% 7% 5%
SurveyUSA October 12–16, 2018 816 ± 4.6% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 41% 40% 8% 11%
Gravis Marketing October 12–16, 2018 377 ± 5.1% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 44% 40% 7% 10%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–15, 2018 783 ± 3.5% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 55% 45%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) October 7–10, 2018 800 40% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 44% 7% 7%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) September 30 – October 3, 2018 800 39% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 43% 7% 5%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 695 LV ± 3.5% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 43% 41% 6% 2% 9%
806 RV ± 3.5% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 41% 40% 6% 1% 10%
Ipsos September 12–20, 2018 1,181 ± 3.0% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 46% 43% 3% 8%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 677 LV ± 3.5% 43% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 45% 3% 1% 8%
804 RV ± 3.5% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 42% 41% 4% 1% 10%
NBC News/Marist August 26–29, 2018 576 LV ± 5.0% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 44% 41% 8% 1% 6%
style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 49% 43% 2% 7%
816 RV ± 4.2% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 43% 40% 8% 1% 8%
style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 48% 42% 2% 9%
Trafalgar Group (R) July 31 – August 7, 2018 1,420 ± 2.6% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 51% 39% 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 952 ± 5.0% 47% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 49% 4%
Gravis Marketing May 10–15, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 46% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 47% 7%
Hypothetical polling
with Todd Rokita
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Donnelly (D)
Todd
Rokita (R)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing Archived November 28, 2020, at the Wayback Machine April 6–11, 2018 411 ± 4.8% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 50% 32% 18%
with Luke Messer
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Donnelly (D)
Luke
Messer (R)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing Archived November 28, 2020, at the Wayback Machine April 6–11, 2018 411 ± 4.8% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 46% 36% 18%
with generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Donnelly (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018 1,809 ± 3.8% 45% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 51% 4%

Results[edit | edit source]

On November 6, 2018, Braun won the general election.[43] He swept southern Indiana, the exurbs of Indianapolis, and most other rural areas in the state. Donnelly ran well behind his 2012 vote totals, winning only in Indianapolis, the university centers (Bloomington, Terre Haute, West Lafayette, South Bend), and the suburbs of Chicago in Northwest Indiana.[44]

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018[45]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mike Braun 1,161,546 50.77% +6.45%
Democratic Joe Donnelly (incumbent) 1,025,178 44.81% −5.20%
Libertarian Lucy Brenton 101,153 4.42% −1.26%
Write-in 70 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 2,287,947 100.00% N/A
style="background-color: Template:Republican Party (United States)/meta/color" | [[Republican Party (United States)|Template:Republican Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] gain from [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]]

By congressional district[edit | edit source]

Braun won 6 of 9 congressional districts. Donnelly won one held by a republican

District Braun Donnelly Elected
Representative
style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading"|1st 37.9% 60.6% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading"|Pete Visclosky
style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading"|2nd 51.0% 45.5% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading"|Jackie Walorski
style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading"|3rd 59.6% 36.7% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading"|Jim Banks
style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading"|4th 57.9% 37.4% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading"|Jim Baird
style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading"|5th 47.9% 48.4% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading"|Susan Brooks
style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading"|6th 60.8% 34.3% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading"|Greg Pence
style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading"|7th 31.8% 64.5% style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading"|André Carson
style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading"|8th 57.3% 38.4% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading"|Larry Bucshon
style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading"|9th 54.3% 41.5% style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading"|Trey Hollingsworth

Voter Demographics[edit | edit source]

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" | Donnelly style="color:black; background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" | Braun No
Answer
% of
Voters
Gender
Men 40 57 3 49
Women 49 46 5 51
Age
18–29 years old 48 45 7 13
30–44 years old 49 43 8 20
45–64 years old 44 54 3 39
65 and older 41 57 1 28
Race
White 40 56 4 86
Black 88 11 1 8
Latino 71 22 6 3
Asian N/A N/A N/A 1
Other N/A N/A N/A 2
Race by gender
White men 35 62 3 42
White women 44 51 5 44
Black men 82 15 2 4
Black women 95 5 0 4
Latino men N/A N/A N/A 1
Latina women N/A N/A N/A 2
Others N/A N/A N/A 2
Education
High school or less 40 56 4 23
Some college education 40 54 6 26
Associate degree 41 55 4 13
Bachelor's degree 46 51 3 22
Advanced degree 61 36 2 16
Education and race
White college graduates 49 48 3 34
White no college degree 33 62 5 53
Non-white college graduates 80 19 2 4
Non-white no college degree 76 20 4 10
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees 57 39 4 17
White women without college degrees 36 59 6 27
White men with college degrees 41 57 2 17
White men without college degrees 31 65 4 26
Non-whites 77 20 3 14
Income
Under $30,000 49 44 8 15
$30,000–49,999 46 49 4 23
$50,000–99,999 44 55 2 35
$100,000–199,999 44 52 4 22
Over $200,000 N/A N/A N/A 5
Party ID
Democrats 92 6 2 29
Republicans 8 90 2 39
Independents 47 44 9 31
Party by gender
Democratic men 92 6 2 12
Democratic women 93 5 2 18
Republican men 8 91 1 19
Republican women 8 90 2 20
Independent men 42 52 7 18
Independent women 55 33 12 13
Ideology
Liberals 86 8 6 20
Moderates 59 37 5 40
Conservatives 10 88 2 40
Marital status
Married 43 54 3 61
Unmarried 51 46 3 39
Gender by marital status
Married men 38 60 2 31
Married women 48 49 3 30
Unmarried men 42 53 5 19
Unmarried women 61 39 1 20
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 41 53 6 15
No 46 51 3 85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 70 26 4 41
Immigration 10 85 5 27
Economy 31 66 3 21
Gun policy 66 31 3 8
Area type
Urban 63 33 4 31
Suburban 44 53 3 44
Rural 37 58 5 25
Source: CNN[46]

Notes[edit | edit source]

  1. Curtis Hill* 4%; Mark Hurt†, Terry Henderson†, and Andrew Takami† with 1%. *Hypothetical candidate. †Withdrawn.

References[edit | edit source]

  1. Strauss, Daniel (August 14, 2017). "Missouri's $10M man". Politico. Archived from the original on May 9, 2018. Retrieved December 23, 2017.
  2. "United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018". Ballotpedia. Retrieved December 23, 2017.
  3. "RealClearPolitics - Election 2018 - Indiana Senate - Braun vs. Donnelly vs. Brenton". realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
  4. "Indiana Election Results 2016". The New York Times. August 1, 2017.
  5. "Secretary of State : Election Division: Election Results". in.gov.
  6. Bottorff, Kathy (January 7, 2017). "Hanscom to Manage Sen. Donnelly Reelect". WTCA. Retrieved January 21, 2017.
  7. "VOTE MARTIN DEL RIO - committee overview - FEC.gov". FEC.gov. Retrieved October 25, 2017.
  8. "Democrat ends US Senate bid - Political notebook - Journal Gazette". journalgazette.net.
  9. 9.0 9.1 "US Senator". Indiana Elections Division. Archived from the original on October 1, 2018. Retrieved July 3, 2018.
  10. Grant, Mike (August 2, 2017). "Braun set for U.S. Senate run". Washington Times-Herald. Retrieved August 8, 2017.
  11. Pathé, Simone (November 6, 2017). "Businessman Makes Indiana Senate Primary Three-Person Race" – via www.rollcall.com.
  12. Pathé, Simone (July 26, 2017). "Indiana Rep. Luke Messer Running for Senate". Roll Call. Retrieved July 26, 2017.
  13. 13.0 13.1 Railey, Kimberly (January 31, 2017). "In light of @SusanWBrooks passing on #insen". Twitter. Retrieved February 3, 2017.
  14. 14.0 14.1 Groppe, Maureen (January 31, 2017). "Brooks won't challenge Donnelly for U.S. Senate seat". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved January 31, 2017.
  15. "The Latest: Rokita to Formally Announce Indiana Senate Bid". The New York Times. Associated Press. August 8, 2017. Retrieved August 8, 2017.
  16. Pathe, Simone (March 23, 2017). "Indiana Headed for Another Member-on-Member Senate Primary". Roll Call. Retrieved March 24, 2017.
  17. "Rep. Brooks endorses Messer for Senate - Political notebook - Journal Gazette". journalgazette.net.
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External links[edit | edit source]

Official campaign websites

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