{{Short description|Entity speculated to become a superpower}}
{{Short description|Entity speculated to be or become a superpower}}
{{Multiple issues|
{{Use Oxford spelling|date=May 2020}}
{{Undue weight}}
{{Update}}
{{original research}}
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{{Use Oxford spelling}}
[[File:Superpower.svg|thumb|300px|
[[File:Superpower.svg|thumb|300px|
'''Extant superpower'''
'''Undisputed superpower'''
{{legend|#ffff00|[[United States]]}}
{{legend|#ffff00|[[United States]]}}
'''Potential superpowers'''—supported in varying degrees by academics
'''Potential superpowers'''—supported in varying degrees by academics
{{legend|#ff0000|[[China]]}}
{{legend|#ff0000|[[China]]}}
{{legend|#000080|[[European Union]]}}
{{legend|#000080|[[European Union]]}}
{{legend|#ff6600|[[Russia]]}}
{{legend|#00ff00|[[India]]}}
{{legend|#00ff00|[[India]]}}
{{legend|#ff6600|[[Russia]]}}
]]
]]
A '''potential superpower''' is a [[state (polity)|state]] or other [[polity]] that is speculated to be—or to have the potential to soon become—a [[superpower]].
A '''potential superpower''' is a [[sovereign state]] or other [[polity]] that is speculated to be or have the potential to become a [[superpower]] (a sovereign state or [[supranational union]] that holds a dominant position and can [[Sphere of influence|exert influence]] and [[Power projection|project power]] on a global scale through economic, military, technological, political, or cultural means).<ref name="Munro1">{{cite web |last1=Munro |first1=André |title=superpower |url=https://www.britannica.com/topic/superpower |access-date=2 May 2023 |website=Encyclopedia Britannica}}</ref><ref name="Mark1">{{cite news |last=Leonard |first=Mark |date=18 February 2005 |title=Europe: the new superpower |work=[[Irish Times]] |url=http://www.cer.org.uk/articles/leonard_irish_times_18feb05.html |access-date=31 May 2015 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090327034443/http://www.cer.org.uk/articles/leonard_irish_times_18feb05.html |archive-date=27 March 2009}}</ref><ref>{{cite book |last=McCormick |first=John |title=The European Superpower |date=2007 |publisher=[[Palgrave Macmillan]] |author-link=John McCormick (Jean Monnet Chair)}}</ref>
Currently, only the [[United States]] fulfills the criteria to be considered a superpower.<ref>{{cite book|title=From Colony to Superpower: U.S. Foreign Relations since 1776|url=https://archive.org/details/fromcolonytosupe1776herr|url-access=limited|first=George|last=C. Herring|publisher=Oxford University Press|page=[https://archive.org/details/fromcolonytosupe1776herr/page/n19 1]|year=2008|isbn=978-0-19-507822-0}}</ref> However, the United States is no longer the only uncontested [[foremost power|foremost]] superpower and the world's sole [[hyperpower]] to dominate in every domain (i.e. military, culture, economy, technology, diplomatic).<ref>{{Cite web |last=Institute |first=Lowy |title=Map - Lowy Institute Asia Power Index |url=https://power.lowyinstitute.org/ |access-date=2023-02-12 |website=Lowy Institute Asia Power Index 2023 |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|title=America's innovation edge now in peril, says Baker Institute, American Academy of Arts and Sciences report|url=https://news.rice.edu/2020/09/30/americas-innovation-edge-now-in-peril-says-baker-institute-american-academy-of-arts-and-sciences-report/|access-date=2020-10-23|website=news.rice.edu}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|title=China will overtake US in tech race|url=https://www.omfif.org/2019/10/china-will-overtake-us-in-tech-race/|access-date=2020-10-23|website=OMFIF|language=en-GB}}</ref><ref name=":2">{{Cite news|title=China now has more diplomatic posts than any other country|language=en-GB|work=BBC News|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50569237|access-date=2020-10-21}}</ref>
The [[United States]] is currently the only country whose status as a superpower finds broad consensus,<ref>{{Cite web |last=Lee |first=Yen Nee |date=2020-09-17 |title=The U.S. is still a dominant power — but it's not clear if it remains the global leader |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/us-is-still-a-dominant-power-but-it-may-not-be-the-global-leader.html |access-date=2024-07-15 |website=CNBC |language=en}}</ref><ref name="f876">{{cite web | title=World Superpowers 2026 | website=World Population Review | date=2026-02-10 | url=https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/world-superpowers | access-date=2026-02-12}}</ref><ref name="k270">{{cite book | last=Beckley | first=Michael | title=Unrivaled: why America will remain the world's sole superpower | publisher=Cornell University Press | publication-place=Ithaca | date=2018 | isbn=978-1-5017-2479-4 | page=}}</ref> with some accounts explicitly calling it the only one.<ref>{{Cite magazine |last=Bremmer |first=Ian |date=2015-05-28 |title=5 Reasons Why the US Remains the World's Only Superpower |url=https://time.com/3899972/us-superpower-status-military/ |access-date=2024-07-15 |magazine=TIME |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=nTKBdY5HBeUC&q=Canada%2520Among%2520Nations%252C%25202004%253A%2520Setting%2520Priorities+Straight |title=Canada Among Nations, 2004: Setting Priorities Straight |date=17 January 2005 |publisher=McGill-Queen's Press – MQUP |isbn=978-0-7735-2836-9 |page=85 |quote=The United States is the sole world's superpower. |access-date=15 July 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230116145100/https://books.google.com/books?id=nTKBdY5HBeUC&q=Canada%2520Among%2520Nations%252C%25202004%253A%2520Setting%2520Priorities+Straight |archive-date=16 January 2023 |url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Dannatt |first=Richard |date=2024-04-14 |title=America has just reminded us there is only one world superpower |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/14/america-has-just-reminded-us-who-is-the-worlds-superpower/ |access-date=2024-07-15 |work=The Telegraph |language=en-GB |issn=0307-1235}}</ref> [[China]], the [[European Union]], [[Russia]] and [[India]] have been discussed as potential superpowers of the 21st century; [[Japan]] was a candidate in the 1980s. The US remains a superpower primarily due to its alliances and economic influence, despite power decline and recent international reputation.<ref>{{Cite journal|url=https://apcz.umk.pl/HiP/article/view/66714|title=Illusion of Multipolarity: Why the U.S. Remains the Global Superpower|first=Andrzej|last=Demczuk|date=November 18, 2025|journal=Historia i Polityka|issue=54 (61)|pages=35–53|via=apcz.umk.pl|doi=10.12775/HiP.2025.029|doi-access=free}}</ref>
Since the 1990s, [[China]],<ref>{{cite news|author=Jacques Martin|url=https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/jun/15/comment.china|work=The Guardian|location=London|title=This is the relationship that will define global politics|access-date=22 May 2010}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|author=Emmanuel Solomon John|url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333759875|title=China: Emerging superpower}}</ref><ref>{{cite report|author=Anthony H. Cordesman|url=https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/190912_China_Grand_Strategy_Full-Report.pdf|work=[[Center for Strategic and International Studies|CSIS]]|title=China and the U.S.: Cooperation, Competition and/or Conflict}}</ref> the [[European Union]],<ref name="rjguttman">{{cite book|last=Guttman|first=R.J.|url=https://archive.org/details/europeinnewcentu00robe|url-access=registration|title=Europe in the New Century|publisher=[[Lynne Rienner Publishers]]|isbn=9781555878528}}</ref> [[India]],<ref name="elephantdragon">{{cite book|author=Robyn Meredith|title=The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What it Means for All of Us|publisher=W.W Norton and Company|year=2007|isbn=978-0-393-33193 6|url=https://archive.org/details/elephantdragonri00mere}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=http://realtruth.org/articles/434-iasitm.html|title=India – A Superpower in the Making?}}</ref> and [[Russia]]<ref name="Russia in the 21st Century">{{cite book|author=Steven Rosefielde|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=eC6HdSYZhRgC|title=Russia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower|publisher=Cambridge University Press|year=2005|isbn=978-0-521-83678-4|author-link=Steven Rosefielde|access-date=13 September 2015}}</ref> have been commonly described as potential superpowers. [[Japan]] was formerly considered a potential superpower due to its [[Japanese economic miracle|high economic growth]].<ref name="Zakaria, F 2008">{{cite book|last=Zakaria|first=Fareed|url=https://archive.org/details/postamericanworl00zaka_199|title=The Post-American World|publisher=W. W. Norton and Company|isbn=978-0-393-06235-9|page=[https://archive.org/details/postamericanworl00zaka_199/page/n225 210]|author-link=Fareed Zakaria|url-access=limited}}</ref><ref name="Land of the setting sun">{{Cite news|title=Land of the setting sun|url=https://www.economist.com/business/2009/11/12/land-of-the-setting-sun|newspaper=The Economist}}</ref><ref name="Japan From Superrich To Superpower">{{cite magazine|title=Japan From Superrich To Superpower|url=http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,967823,00.html|magazine=[[Time (magazine)|Time]]}}</ref> However, its status as a potential superpower has eroded since the 1990s due to an [[Aging of Japan|aging population]] and [[Lost Decades|economic stagnation]].<ref name="Leika Kihara">{{cite news|title=Japan eyes end to decades long deflation|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-economy-estimate-idUSL4E8JH1TC20120817#ySOkSfW3bZs8lVWK.97|author=Leika Kihara|work=Reuters|access-date=7 September 2012}}</ref>
The [[China|People's Republic of China]] receives continual coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status,<ref>{{cite web |url = http://edition.cnn.com/SPECIALS/1999/china.50/asian.superpower/ |title = Visions of China – Asian Superpower |website = CNN |year = 1999 |access-date=19 July 2014 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url = https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/01/china-military-presence-superpower-collision-japan |title = China's military presence is growing. Does a superpower collision loom? |website = The Guardian |access-date=19 July 2014 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web|author=Cordesman, Anthony|title=China and the United States: Cooperation, Competition, and/or Conflict|url=https://www.csis.org/analysis/china-and-united-states-cooperation-competition-andor-conflict|access-date=22 March 2021|work=Center for Strategic and International Studies|quote=Seen from this perspective, such trends clearly that show that China already is a true economic superpower with growing resources and a steadily improving technology base. Its military structure is evolving to the point where China can compare or compete with the U.S. — at least in Asia.}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|author1=Silver, Laura|author2=Devlin, Kat|author3=Huang, Christine|title=China's Economic Growth Mostly Welcomed in Emerging Markets, but Neighbors Wary of Its Influence|url=https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/12/05/chinas-economic-growth-mostly-welcomed-in-emerging-markets-but-neighbors-wary-of-its-influence/|access-date=22 March 2021|work=Pew Research Center|quote=China has emerged as a global economic superpower in recent decades. It is not only the world’s second largest economy and the largest exporter by value, but it has also been investing in overseas infrastructure and development at a rapid clip}}</ref><ref name="CNN_naval">{{cite news|author=Lendon, Brad|title=China has built the world's largest navy. Now what's Beijing going to do with it?|publisher=CNN|url=https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/05/china/china-world-biggest-navy-intl-hnk-ml-dst/index.html|access-date=22 March 2021|quote=In 2018, China held 40% of the world's shipbuilding market by gross tons, according to United Nations figures cited by the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, well ahead of second place South Korea at 25%. Put in a historical perspective, China's shipbuilding numbers are staggering – dwarfing even the U.S. efforts of World War II. China built more ships in one year of peace time (2019) than the U.S. did in four of war (1941–1945).}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|author=Lemahieu, Herve|title=Five big takeaways from the 2019 Asia Power Index|url=https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/power-shifts-fevered-times-2019-asia-power-index|access-date=22 March 2021|publisher=Lowy Institute|quote=China, the emerging superpower, netted the highest gains in overall power in 2019, ranking first in half of the eight Index measures. For the first time, China narrowly edged out the United States in the Index’s assessment of economic resources. In absolute terms China’s economy grew by more than the total size of Australia’s economy in 2018. The world’s largest trading nation has also paradoxically seen its GDP become less dependent on exports. This makes China less vulnerable to an escalating trade war than most other Asian economies.}}</ref> and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic growth and military superpower by academics and other experts. In fact, the "rise of China" has been named the top news story of the 21st century by the [[Global Language Monitor]], as measured by number of appearances in the global print and electronic media, on the Internet and blogosphere, and in social media.<ref>{{cite web |url = http://www.ycwb.com/ePaper/xkb/html/2011-05/07/content_1105830.htm |script-title = zh:21世纪新闻排行中国崛起居首位 |trans-title = The rise of China ranked first place in 21st century news |language = zh-Hans-CN |website = Ycwb.com |date = 7 May 2011 |access-date = 10 February 2012 |url-status=dead |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110927095901/http://www.ycwb.com/ePaper/xkb/html/2011-05/07/content_1105830.htm |archive-date = 27 September 2011 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |first = Chito | last=Romana |url = https://abcnews.go.com/International/china-replace-us-top-superpower/story?id=9986355 |title = Does China Want to Be Top Superpower? |website = Abcnews.go.com |date = 2 March 2010 |access-date = 10 February 2012}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url = http://carnegieendowment.org/2006/02/09/from-rural-transformation-to-global-integration-environmental-and-social-impacts-of-china-s-rise-to-superpower/dfi |title = From Rural Transformation to Global Integration: The Environmental and Social Impacts of China's Rise to Superpower – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |access-date = 10 February 2012 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url = http://www.getabstract.com/en/summary/global-business/china-the-balance-sheet/6584/?isbn= |title = China: The Balance Sheet Summary |website = getabstract.com |year = 2006 |access-date = 19 July 2014 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |first = Merri B. |last = Uckert |url = http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc/uckertmb.pdf |title = China As An Economic and Military Superpower: A Dangerous Combination? |date = April 1995 |access-date = 10 February 2012 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130115145821/http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc/uckertmb.pdf |archive-date = 15 January 2013 |url-status = dead }}</ref> The term "[[second superpower]]" has been applied by scholars to the possibility that the People's Republic of China could [[Chinese Century|emerge]] with [[Power (international relations)|global power]] and influence on par with the United States.<ref>{{cite book |title=History of International Broadcasting |first=James|last=Wood |page=155 |publisher=IET |year=2000 }}</ref> The potential for the two countries to form stronger relations to address global issues is sometimes referred to as the [[Group of Two]].
[[Barry Buzan]] asserted in 2004 that "China certainly presents the most promising all-round profile" of a potential superpower.<ref name="The United States and the Great Powers">{{cite book|last=Buzan|first=Barry|title=The United States and the Great Powers|publisher=Polity Press|year=2004|location=Cambridge, United Kingdom|page=70|isbn=0-7456-3375-7}}</ref> Buzan claimed that "China is currently the most fashionable potential superpower and the one whose degree of alienation from the dominant international society makes it the most obvious political challenger". However, he noted this challenge is constrained by the major challenges of development and by the fact that its rise could trigger a counter coalition of states in [[Asia]].<ref name="The United States and the Great Powers"/>
[[Parag Khanna]] stated in 2008 that by making massive trade and investment deals with Latin America and Africa, China had established its presence as a superpower along with the [[European Union]] and the [[United States]]. China's rise is demonstrated by its ballooning share of trade in its [[gross domestic product]]. He believed that China's "consultative style" had allowed it to develop political and economic ties with many countries including those viewed as [[rogue state]]s by the United States. He stated that the [[Shanghai Cooperation Organisation]] founded with Russia and the Central Asian countries may eventually be the "[[NATO]] of the East".<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/magazine/27world-t.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0|newspaper=[[The New York Times]]|last=Khanna|first=Parag|title=Waving Goodbye to Hegemony|access-date=July 19, 2014}}</ref>
Economist and author of ''Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance'' [[Arvind Subramanian]] argued in 2012 that China would direct the world's financial system by 2020{{update inline}} and that the Chinese [[renminbi]] would replace the [[United States dollar|dollar]] as the world's [[reserve currency]] within 10 to 15 years (between 2022 and 2027). The United States' [[soft power]] would remain longer, though. He stated that "China was a top dog economically for thousands of years prior to the [[Ming dynasty]]. In some ways, the past few hundred years have been an aberration."<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Ted Greenwald |url=https://www.wired.com/2012/02/st_subramanianqa/ |title=Taming the Dragon: One Scholar's Plan to Soften Chinese Dominance |magazine=WIRED |volume=20 |issue=3 |access-date=June 28, 2014}}</ref>
Lawrence Saez at the [[SOAS, University of London|School of Oriental and African Studies]], London, argued in 2011 that the United States will be surpassed by China as military superpower within twenty years. Regarding economic power, the Director of the China Center for Economic Reform at [[Peking University]] Yao Yang stated that "Assuming that the Chinese and U.S. economies grow, respectively, by 8% and 3% in real terms, that China's inflation rate is 3.6% and America's is 2% (the averages of the last decade), and that the renminbi appreciates against the dollar by 3% per year (the average of the last six years), China will become the world's largest economy by 2021. By that time, both countries' GDP will be about $24 trillion."<ref>{{cite web|author=Thair Shaikh |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120311061413/http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06-10/world/china.military.superpower_1_superpower-military-spending-military-dominance/2?_s=PM%3AWORLD |url=http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06-10/world/china.military.superpower_1_superpower-military-spending-military-dominance/2?_s=PM:WORLD |title=When Will China Become a Global Superpower? |publisher=CNN |archive-date=11 March 2012 |access-date=28 June 2014 |url-status=dead }}</ref>
Historian [[Timothy Garton Ash]] argued in 2011, pointing to factors such as the [[International Monetary Fund]] predicting that China's GDP ([[purchasing power parity]] adjusted) will overtake that of the United States in 2016,{{update inline}} that a power shift to a world with several superpowers was happening "Now". However, China was still lacking in soft power and power projection abilities and had a low [[Per capita income|GDP/person]]. The article also stated that the [[Pew Research Center]] in a 2009 survey found that people in 15 out of 22 countries believed that China had or would overtake the US as the world's leading superpower.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.caixin.com/2012-02-27/100360946.html|publisher=[[Caixin]]|title=Oxford Prof on China and the New World OrderPart 1|access-date=19 July 2014}}</ref>
In an interview given in 2011, Singapore's first premier, [[Lee Kuan Yew]], stated that while China supplanting the United States is not a foregone conclusion, Chinese leaders are nonetheless serious about displacing the United States as the most powerful country in Asia. "They have transformed a poor society by an economic miracle to become now the second-largest economy in the world. How could they not aspire to be number 1 in Asia, and in time the world?".<ref name="LeeAllison2013">{{cite book|author1=Kuan Yew Lee|author2=Graham Allison|author3=Robert D. Blackwill|author4=Ali Wyne|title=Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World|chapter-url=https://books.google.com/books?id=geiCymK1IWIC&pg=PA2|access-date=11 December 2015|publisher=MIT Press|isbn=978-0-262-01912-5|page=2|chapter=Future of China}}</ref> The Chinese strategy, Lee maintains, will revolve around their "huge and increasingly highly skilled and educated workers to out-sell and out-build all others".<ref name="Allison 2012 4">{{cite book| last=Allison| first=Graham and Robert D. Blackwill, with Ali Wyne| title=Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World| year=2012| publisher=The MIT Press| location=Cambridge Massachusetts| isbn=978-0-262-01912-5| page=4| url=https://books.google.com/books?id=geiCymK1IWIC}}</ref> Nevertheless, relations with the United States, at least in the medium term, will not take a turn for the worse because China will "avoid any action that will sour up relations with the U.S. To challenge a stronger and technologically superior power like the U.S. will abort their 'peaceful rise.' "<ref name="Allison 2012 4"/> Though Lee believes China is genuinely interested in growing within the global framework the United States has created, it is biding its time until it becomes strong enough to successfully redefine the prevailing political and economic order.<ref>{{cite book|last=Allison|first=Graham and Robert D. Blackwill, with Ali Wyne|title=Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World|year=2012|publisher=The MIT Press|location=Cambridge Massachusetts|isbn=978-0-262-01912-5|page=12|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=geiCymK1IWIC}}</ref>
Chinese foreign policy adviser [[Wang Jisi]] in 2012 stated that many Chinese officials see China as a first-class power which should be treated as such. China is argued to soon become the world's largest economy and to be making rapid progress in many areas. The United States is seen as a declining superpower as indicated by factors such as poor economic recovery, financial disorder, high deficits gaining close to GDP levels and unemployment, increasing political polarization, and overregulation forcing jobs overseas in China.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.epi.org/publication/counting_the_jobs_lost_to_china/|title=Counting the jobs lost to China|work=Economic Policy Institute|access-date=8 July 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|author1=Kenneth Lieberthal|author2=Wang Jisi|url=http://www.voanews.com/content/us-china-experts-warn-of-growing-bilateral-distrust-145900615/179594.html|publisher=[[Voice of America]]|title=US, China Experts Warn of Growing Bilateral Distrust|access-date=19 July 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/3/30-us-china-lieberthal/0330_china_lieberthal.pdf|publisher=China Center at Brookings|title=Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust|access-date=19 July 2014}}</ref>{{needs update}}
Some consensus has concluded that China has reached the qualifications of superpower status, citing China's growing political clout and leadership in the economic sectors has given the country renewed standings in the International Community. Although China's military projection is still premature and untested, the perceived humiliation of US leadership in failing to prevent its closest allies in joining the [[Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank]],<ref name="Foreign Policy-April-1-2015">{{cite magazine|author=Allen-Ebrahimian, Bethany |title=Obama Is Sitting Alone at a Bar Drinking a Consolation Beer|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/01/obama-china-bank-aiib-policy/|magazine=[[Foreign Policy]]}}</ref> along with the [[Belt and Road Initiative]] and China's role in the [[Boeing 737 MAX groundings|worldwide groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX]],<ref name="Boeing’s Crisis Strengthens Beijing’s Hand-March-20-2019">{{cite magazine|author=Aboulafia, Richard |title=Boeing's Crisis Strengthens Beijing's Hand|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/20/boeings-crisis-strengthens-beijings-hand-737max-faa-caac-aviation-regulators-trade-war-china-xi-trump/|magazine=[[Foreign Policy]]}}</ref> was seen as a [[paradigm shift]] or an [[inflection point]] to the [[Polarity (international relations)#Unipolarity|unipolar world order]] that dominated post-Cold War international relations. University Professor Øystein Tunsjø argues that competition between China and the USA will increase, leading to the gap between them decreasing, while the gap between the two countries and the rest of the top ten largest economies will widen.<ref name="Columbia University Press-February-2018">{{Cite book|author=Tunsjø, Øystein |title=The Return of Bipolarity in World Politics: China, the United States, and Geostructural Realism|url=https://cup.columbia.edu/book/the-return-of-bipolarity-in-world-politics/9780231176545|publisher=[[Columbia University Press]]|isbn=9780231546904}}</ref> Additionally, economics correspondent, [[Peter S. Goodman]] and Beijing Bureau Chief of China, [[Jane Perlez]] further stated that China is using a combination of its economic might and growing military advancements to pressure, coerce and change the current world order to accommodate China's interests at the expense of the United States and its allies.<ref name="The New York Times-November-25-2018">{{cite news|author1=Goodman, Peter |author2=Perlez, Jane |title=Beijing is leveraging its commercial and military might to redraw the terms of trade, diplomacy and security, challenging the liberal democratic order.|url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/25/world/asia/china-world-power.html?mtrref=www.google.com&gwh=9DD0254E4F46A3D7C0FD201DDFA1E152&gwt=pay|newspaper=[[The New York Times]]}}</ref>
China status as a potential or a ''de facto'' [[superpower]] has been subject of great academic and geopolitical debate,<ref name="x582">{{cite journal | last1=Baumann | first1=Max‐Otto | last2=Haug | first2=Sebastian | last3=Weinlich | first3=Silke | title=From developing country to superpower? China, power shifts and the United Nations development pillar | journal=Global Policy | volume=15 | issue=S2 | date=2024 | issn=1758-5880 | doi=10.1111/1758-5899.13260 | pages=51–61 | url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1758-5899.13260 | access-date=2026-02-13| doi-access=free }}</ref> with China often seen as the only entity that rivals the United States in the 21st century.<ref name="x582"/> Since a 2012 Cornell University - Lund Critical Debate that concluded "China is not yet a superpower",<ref name="r983">{{cite web | last=Diec | first=Jacques | title=Scholars agree: China is not a superpower | website=Cornell Chronicle | date=2012-11-19 | url=https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2012/11/scholars-agree-china-not-superpower | access-date=2026-02-13}} ([https://www.cornell.edu/video/lund-critical-debate-is-china-the-new-superpower video])</ref> an increasing amount of proponents have highlighted China's modern military, regional influence, cultural export, rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, economic and manufacturing volume as signs of global dominance in the 2020s.<ref>
* {{cite web | last=Cordesman | first=Anthony H. | title=China's Emergence as a Superpower | website=CSIS | date=2023-08-15 | url=https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-emergence-superpower | access-date=2026-02-13}}
* {{cite web | last=Ross | first=Dennis | title=Here's Why the U.S. Is No Longer the World's Only Superpower | website=The Washington Institute | date=2025-03-04 | url=https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/heres-why-us-no-longer-worlds-only-superpower | access-date=2026-02-13}}
* {{cite web | last=Ross | first=Dennis | title=The U.S. is No Longer the World's Only Superpower | website=TIME | date=2025-03-04 | url=https://time.com/7263996/the-u-s-no-longer-the-worlds-only-superpower/ | access-date=2026-02-13}}
* {{cite web | last=Welsh | first=Jennifer | title=Opinion: The U.S. is no longer a superpower | website=The Globe and Mail | date=2025-04-15 | url=https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-us-is-no-longer-a-superpower/ | access-date=2026-02-13}}
* {{cite web | title=The U.S. is no longer a superpower | website=Max Bell School of Public Policy | date=2025-04-16 | url=https://www.mcgill.ca/maxbellschool/max-policy/us-no-longer-superpower | ref={{sfnref|Max Bell School of Public Policy|2025}} | access-date=2026-02-13}}</ref> However, opponents suggest that domestic challenges still persist; such as an ageing and shrinking population, lack of skilled immigration, alongside international concerns of [[Soft power of China|its soft power status]] due to human rights issues, lack of [[hard power]] capabilities through a global military alliance system, and the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade.<ref>
* {{cite web |last=Herman |first=Arthur |date=2026-01-14 |title=America Is the Sole Superpower Again |url=https://www.wsj.com/opinion/america-is-the-sole-superpower-again-0a89e41a |access-date=2026-02-13 |website=The Wall Street Journal}}
* {{cite web |last=Bekkevold |first=Jo Inge |date=2023-03-02 |title=Why China Is Not a Superpower |url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/02/china-superpower-us-new-cold-war-rivalry-geopolitics/ |website=Foreign Policy}}
* {{cite web |date=2025-04-01 |title=Empire Of Illusion: Frank Dikötter On Why China Isn't A Superpower |url=https://www.hoover.org/research/empire-illusion-frank-dikotter-why-china-isnt-superpower |website=Hoover Institution}}
* {{cite |author=Andrew Latham |title=China: A great power but not a superpower |date=2023-04-06 |url=https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3936751-china-a-great-power-but-not-a-superpower/ |language=en-US}}
* {{cite web |date=2023-09-07 |title=Opinion: The 'rising superpower' myth about China |url=https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/07/opinions/rising-superpower-myth-china-rayburn-bergen |website=CNN}}</ref>
The 2019 Chinese Defense White Paper highlights growing strategic competition between China and the United States although it stops short of the military and ideological confrontation that was shown during the [[Cold War]]. Rather, according to [[Anthony H. Cordesman]], although the paper flags both China and the US as competing superpowers, it was far more moderate in its treatment of the US in contrast to the United States view on Chinese military developments. Cordesman states that the paper in the end, was a warning that will shape Sino-American relations as China becomes stronger than Russia in virtually every respect other than its nuclear arsenal.<ref name="China’s New 2019 Defense White Paper: An Open Strategic Challenge to the United States, But One Which Does Not Have to Lead to Conflict-July-24-2019">{{cite journal|author=Cordesman, Anthony H. |title=China's New 2019 Defense White Paper: An Open Strategic Challenge to the United States, But One Which Does Not Have to Lead to Conflict|url=https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-2019-defense-white-paper-open-strategic-challenge-united-states-one-which-does|journal=[[Center for Strategic and International Studies]]}}</ref>
There has been great focus on China's growing economic activity on the global stage, in particular where it has been in competition with the United States: for example, the establishment and large-scale expansion in countries joining the [[Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank]] in contrast to traditional western institutions, along with the [[Belt and Road Initiative]] and China's role in the [[Boeing 737 MAX groundings|worldwide groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX]].<ref name="Foreign Policy-April-1-2015">{{cite magazine|author=Allen-Ebrahimian, Bethany |title=Obama Is Sitting Alone at a Bar Drinking a Consolation Beer|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/01/obama-china-bank-aiib-policy/|magazine=[[Foreign Policy]]|date=April 1, 2015}}</ref><ref name="Boeing’s Crisis Strengthens Beijing’s Hand-March-20-2019">{{cite magazine|author=Aboulafia, Richard |title=Boeing's Crisis Strengthens Beijing's Hand|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/20/boeings-crisis-strengthens-beijings-hand-737max-faa-caac-aviation-regulators-trade-war-china-xi-trump/|magazine=[[Foreign Policy]]|date=March 20, 2019}}</ref> It has also been argued that there is likely to be growing competition in future between two highly dominant countries, the United States and China, while others begin to lag behind economically.<ref name="Columbia University Press-February-2018">{{Cite book|author=Tunsjø, Øystein |title=The Return of Bipolarity in World Politics: China, the United States, and Geostructural Realism|url=https://cup.columbia.edu/book/the-return-of-bipolarity-in-world-politics/9780231176545|publisher=[[Columbia University Press]]|date=February 27, 2018|isbn=9780231546904}}</ref> It has also been predicted that China may overtake the United States as the world's largest economy in the 2020s.<ref>{{cite web|author=Thair Shaikh |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120311061413/http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06-10/world/china.military.superpower_1_superpower-military-spending-military-dominance/2?_s=PM%3AWORLD |url=http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06-10/world/china.military.superpower_1_superpower-military-spending-military-dominance/2?_s=PM:WORLD |title=When Will China Become a Global Superpower? |publisher=CNN |date=10 June 2011 |archive-date=11 March 2012 |access-date=28 June 2014 |url-status=dead }}</ref> Due to [[Artificial intelligence industry in China|the country's rapidly developing AI industry]], China has also been referred to as an "[[AI superpower]]".<ref>{{Cite book |last=Lee |first=Kai-Fu |title=[[AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order]] |publisher=[[Houghton Mifflin Harcourt]] |date=September 25, 2018 |language=English}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Westerheide |first=Fabian |title=China – The First Artificial Intelligence Superpower |url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2020/01/14/china-artificial-intelligence-superpower/ |access-date=2024-07-19 |website=Forbes |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last1=Milmo |first1=Dan |work=Global technology |date=2021-12-08 |title=TechScape: how China became an AI superpower ready to take on the United States |url=https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/dec/08/techscape-china-ai-united-states |access-date=2024-07-19 |publisher=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}</ref>
On August 19, 2019, the [[United States Studies Centre]] handed out a report suggesting that Washington no longer enjoyed primacy in the Indo-Pacific. It stresses that the [[War on terror]] has greatly distracted the U.S. response to China's role in the Pacific; that U.S. military force in the region had greatly atrophied whereas Beijing only grew stronger and more capable in the era since the [[September 11, 2001 attacks]], to the point that China could now actively challenge the United States over the Indo-Pacific.<ref>{{cite report|author=Ashley Townshend, Brendan Thomas-Noone, Matilda Steward|url=https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/averting-crisis-american-strategy-military-spending-and-collective-defence-in-the-indo-pacific|work=[[United States Studies Centre]]|title=Averting Crisis: American strategy, military spending and collective defence in the Indo-Pacific}}</ref> According to the 2021 Asia Power Index, within Asia, the United States still took the lead on military capacity, cultural influence, resilience, future resources, diplomatic influence, and defense networks, but fell behind China in two parameters: economic capability and economic relationships.<ref name=":8">{{Cite web|title=China – Lowy Institute Asia Power Index|url=https://power.lowyinstitute.org/|access-date=2021-12-05|website=Lowy Institute Asia Power Index 2021|language=en}}</ref>
But some have questioned how long this pace of economic growth could continue, with emphasis placed not only on China's very large but [[Aging of China |ageing and shrinking population]] of over 1.4 billion, but also long-term effects of pollution within the country that have accumulated during its fast pace of industrialisation.<ref name="articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com">{{cite news |last=Beardson |first=Timothy |date=June 28, 2013 |title=I don't see China becoming a superpower in this century |url=http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-28/news/40234296_1_challenges-facing-china-foreign-companies-china-20-years |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160305034514/http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-28/news/40234296_1_challenges-facing-china-foreign-companies-china-20-years |archive-date=March 5, 2016 |work=The Times Of India}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |author=Timothy Beardson |date=24 May 2013 |title=Action Needed on the Environment |url=https://www.huffingtonpost.com/timothy-beardson/china-pollution_b_3331929.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210226075322/https://www.huffpost.com/entry/china-pollution_b_3331929 |archive-date=February 26, 2021 |access-date=26 July 2014 |work=Huffington Post}}</ref><ref>{{cite book |author=Susan Shirk |url=https://archive.org/details/chinafragilesupe00shir |title=China: Fragile Superpower |date=2008 |publisher=Oxford University Press |isbn=978-0-19-537319-6 |url-access=registration}}</ref> The damage to the country's environment has been extremely costly, mostly due to an inability of poor regions to afford environmental regulations,<ref>{{Cite book |last=Economy |first=Elizabeth C. |title=The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China's Future |date=2010 |publisher=Cornell University Press |isbn=978-0-8014-7613-6 |edition= |series=A Council on Foreign Relations Book |location=Ithaca}}</ref> but also a broader freshwater crisis stemming from inefficient management, pollution, and climate change.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Leung |first=Ka Ching |date=February 21, 2023 |title=Tackling China's Water Shortage Crisis |url=https://earth.org/tackling-chinas-water-shortage-crisis/ |access-date=2025-07-31 |website=Earth.Org |language=en}}</ref> China also has yet to prove attractive to skilled immigration from outside the country in the same way other countries like the United States have.<ref name="Chua, A 2007">{{cite book|author=Amy Chua|year=2007|title=Day of Empire: How Hyperpowers Rise to Global Dominance – and Why They Fall|publisher=Random House|isbn=978-0-385-51284-8|url=https://archive.org/details/dayofempirehowhy00chua_0}}</ref> A supposed lack of [[soft power]] is another aspect of contention to China's status as a potential superpower.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Swain |first=Ashok |date=2021-01-21 |title=China's economy and military can overtake US, but it still won't become global superpower |url=https://theprint.in/opinion/chinas-can-overtake-us-but-it-still-wont-become-global-superpower/588718/ |access-date=2024-07-12 |website=ThePrint |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Today's China will never be a superpower |url=https://www.ft.com/content/233b101e-7d51-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560 |access-date=2024-07-12 |website=www.ft.com|date=27 May 2019 }}</ref>
China's challenging the United States for global predominance constitutes the core issue in the debate over the [[American decline]].<ref name="Ali">{{cite news|last1=Wyne|first1=Ali|title=Is America Choosing Decline?|magazine=The New Republic|url=https://newrepublic.com/article/149008/america-choosing-decline|access-date=28 March 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|last1=Brown|first1=Stuart S.|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=RgVBK3B1oOQC&q=US+cultural+decline|title=The Future of US Global Power: Delusions of Decline|publisher=Palgrave Macmillan|isbn=9781137023155|language=en|access-date=24 March 2019}}</ref><ref name="Cn-domin">{{cite web|last1=Rapoza|first1=Kenneth|title=The Future: China's Rise, America's Decline|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/03/26/the-future-chinas-rise-americas-decline/#43133b093b2f|access-date=28 March 2019|website=Forbes|language=en}}</ref>
=== Contrary views ===
The [[United States military]] considers China as the US' most capable and formidable adversary.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.army.mil/article/285395/how_china_fights_in_large_scale_combat_operations |title=How China Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations |website=U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) |date=8 May 2025 |first=Ian |last=Sullivan }}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.voanews.com/a/europe_us-labels-china-greatest-potential-adversary/6184312.html |title=US Labels China 'Greatest Potential Adversary' |website=Voice of America |first=Henry |last=Ridgwell |date=15 February 2020 }}</ref> There has been argument that its ties with Russia and Central Asia could see the [[Shanghai Cooperation Organisation]] become the "[[NATO]] of the East".<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/magazine/27world-t.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0|newspaper=[[The New York Times]]|last=Khanna|first=Parag|title=Waving Goodbye to Hegemony|date=27 January 2008 |access-date=July 19, 2014}}</ref> It has also been argued that American absence from the Indo-Pacific region during the [[war on terror]] has allowed the Chinese to actively challenge the United States as the pre-eminent power in the region.<ref>{{cite report|author=Ashley Townshend, Brendan Thomas-Noone, Matilda Steward|url=https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/averting-crisis-american-strategy-military-spending-and-collective-defence-in-the-indo-pacific|work=[[United States Studies Centre]]|title=Averting Crisis: American strategy, military spending and collective defence in the Indo-Pacific|date= 19 August 2019}}</ref> But others have argued that China is still surrounded by potentially hostile nations, and lacks the friends or allies necessary for it to truly compete with the United States.<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Minxin Pei|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/03/20/the-loneliest-superpower/|title=The Loneliest Superpower|magazine=Foreign Policy|date=20 March 2012|access-date=28 June 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210505071234/https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/03/20/the-loneliest-superpower/ |archive-date=May 5, 2021 |url-status=live}}</ref>
Timothy Beardson, founder of Crosby International Holdings, stated in 2013 that he does not see "China becoming a superpower". He pointed out that China has continually polluted its environment during its 30 years of economic growth and will have to grapple with an ageing and shrinking workforce in the future.<ref name="articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com">{{cite news |last=Beardson |first=Timothy |title=I don't see China becoming a superpower in this century|work=The Times Of India |url=http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-28/news/40234296_1_challenges-facing-china-foreign-companies-china-20-years |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160305034514/http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-28/news/40234296_1_challenges-facing-china-foreign-companies-china-20-years |archive-date=March 5, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|author=Timothy Beardson|url=https://www.huffingtonpost.com/timothy-beardson/china-pollution_b_3331929.html|title=Action Needed on the Environment|work=Huffington Post|access-date=26 July 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210226075322/https://www.huffpost.com/entry/china-pollution_b_3331929 |archive-date=February 26, 2021}}</ref>
Geoffrey Murray's ''China: The Next Superpower'' (1998) argued that while the potential for China is high, this is fairly perceived only by looking at the risks and obstacles China faces in managing its population and resources. The political situation in China may become too fragile to survive into superpower status, according to [[Susan Shirk]] in ''China: Fragile Superpower'' (2008). Other factors that could constrain China's ability to become a superpower in the future include limited supplies of energy and raw materials, questions over its innovation capability, inequality and corruption, and risks to social stability and the environment.<ref>{{cite book|author=Susan Shirk|title=China: Fragile Superpower|url=https://archive.org/details/chinafragilesupe00shir|url-access=registration|publisher=Oxford University Press|isbn=978-0-19-537319-6}}</ref>
[[Amy Chua]] stated in 2007 that whether a country is attractive to immigrants is an important quality for a superpower. She also wrote that China lacks the pull to bring scientists, thinkers, and innovators from other countries as immigrants.<ref name="Chua, A 2007">{{cite book|author=Amy Chua|year=2007|title=Day of Empire: How Hyperpowers Rise to Global Dominance – and Why They Fall|publisher=Random House|isbn=978-0-385-51284-8|url=https://archive.org/details/dayofempirehowhy00chua_0}}</ref>
[[Minxin Pei]] stated in 2010 that China is not a superpower and would not be one anytime soon, arguing that China faced daunting political and economic challenges.<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Minxin Pei|url=http://apac2020.thediplomat.com/feature/china%E2%80%99s-not-a-superpower/|title=China's Not a Superpower|magazine=The Diplomat|access-date=10 February 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170426042015/http://apac2020.thediplomat.com/feature/china%E2%80%99s-not-a-superpower/ |archive-date=April 26, 2017}}</ref> In 2012 he argued that China, despite using its economic power to influence some nations, has few real friends or allies and is surrounded by potentially hostile nations. This situation could improve if regional territorial disputes were resolved and China participated in an effective regional defence system that would reduce the fears of its neighbours. Alternatively, a democratization of China could improve foreign relations with many nations.<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Minxin Pei|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/03/20/the-loneliest-superpower/|title=The Loneliest Superpower|magazine=Foreign Policy|access-date=28 June 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210505071234/https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/03/20/the-loneliest-superpower/ |archive-date=May 5, 2021}}</ref>
The [[European Union]] (EU) has been called a potential superpower, mainly due to its economic power and global political influence. Factors highlighted have included its large population, the size and global reach of its combined economy, and the comparative unpopularity of US foreign policy.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.cer.org.uk/in-the-press/europe-new-superpower|title=Europe: the new superpower|publisher=CER|date=18 February 2005|access-date=28 May 2014}}</ref><ref name="The European Superpower">{{cite book|author=John McCormick|title=The European Superpower|isbn=978-1-4039-9846-0|date=14 November 2006|publisher=Macmillan Education UK }}</ref>
|colspan="4" style="text-align:center;"|[[File:Flag of Europe.svg|center|border|180px]]
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|colspan="4" style="text-align:center;"|[[File:Global European Union.svg|center|180px]]
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The [[European Union]] (EU) has been called an emerging superpower by academics.<ref name="rjguttman"/><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?event_id=113994&fuseaction=events.event_summary|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060808165746/http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=events.event_summary&event_id=113994|archive-date=8 August 2006|publisher=Wilson Center|title=The EU Future: Global Power or European Governance|access-date=28 July 2014}}</ref> Many scholars and academics like T. R. Reid,<ref>Reid, T. R. (2004) The United States of Europe 305p, ''Penguin Books'' {{ISBN|1-59420-033-5}}</ref> Andrew Reding,<ref name="A. R.">{{cite news|author=Andrew Reding|url=http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2002-01-06/news/0201060227_1_european-union-bering-sea-common-currency|title=EU in position to be world's next superpower|newspaper=Chicago Tribune|access-date=7 July 2014}}</ref> [[Andrew Moravcsik]],<ref>{{cite web|author=Andrew Moravcsik|title=The Quiet Superpower|url=http://www.princeton.edu/~amoravcs/library/quiet.pdf|publisher=Princeton University Press|access-date=26 July 2014}}</ref> [[Mark Leonard (director)|Mark Leonard]],<ref>{{cite book|author=Mark Leonard|title=Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century|publisher=Perseus Books Group|isbn=1-58648-424-9}}</ref> [[Jeremy Rifkin]],<ref>{{cite book|author=Jeremy Rifkin|year=2004|title=The European Dream|url=https://archive.org/details/europeandream00jere|url-access=registration|isbn=1-58542-345-9}}</ref> and [[John McCormick (political scientist)|John McCormick]],<ref>{{cite news|author=Richard A. Clarke|title=The European Superpower|publisher=Palgrave Macmillan}}</ref> as well as some politicians like [[Romano Prodi]]<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Jonathan Rauch|url=https://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200502u/nj_rauch_2005-02-01|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080828194231/http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200502u/nj_rauch_2005-02-01|archive-date=28 August 2008|title=Europe Is the Next Rival Superpower. But Then, So Was Japan.|magazine=The Atlantic|access-date=26 July 2014}}</ref> and [[Tony Blair]],<ref>{{cite news|author=Benedict Brogan|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/1369282/Blair-wants-EU-to-become-superpower.html |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220112/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/1369282/Blair-wants-EU-to-become-superpower.html |archive-date=2022-01-12 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live|title=Blair wants EU to become superpower|access-date=27 March 2014|location=London|work=The Daily Telegraph}}{{cbignore}}</ref> believed that the EU either is, or will become, a superpower in the 21st century.
Mark Leonard cites several factors: the EU's large population, large economy, low inflation rates, the unpopularity and perceived failure of US foreign policy in recent years, and certain EU member states' high quality of life (especially when measured in terms such as hours worked per week, health care, social services).<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.cer.org.uk/in-the-press/europe-new-superpower|title=Europe: the new superpower|publisher=CER|access-date=28 May 2014}}</ref>
[[John McCormick (political scientist)|John McCormick]] believes that the EU has already achieved superpower status, based on the size and global reach of its economy and on its global political influence. He argues that the nature of power has changed since the [[Cold War]]-driven definition of superpower was developed, and that military power is no longer essential to great power; he argues that control of the means of production is more important than control of the means of destruction, and contrasts the threatening [[hard power]] of the United States with the opportunities offered by the [[soft power]] wielded by the European Union.<ref name="The European Superpower">{{cite book|author=John McCormick|title=The European Superpower|isbn=978-1-4039-9846-0}}</ref>
[[Parag Khanna]] believes that "Europe is overtaking its rivals to become the world's most successful empire".<ref name="empirestrikesback">{{cite web|author=Parag Khanna|url=http://paragkhanna.com/the-empire-strikes-back/|title=The Empire Strikes Back|publisher=ParagKhanna.com|access-date=14 March 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|author=Parag Khanna|url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/02/eu.politics|title=US scholar Parag Khanna on the rise of the new Rome – Europe|newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=14 March 2014}}</ref> Khanna writes that [[South America]], [[East Asia]], and other regions prefer to emulate "[[The European Dream]]" rather than the [[American Dream|American variant]].<ref name="empirestrikesback" /> This could possibly be seen in the [[African Union]] and [[Union of South American Nations|UNASUR]]. Notably, among the official languages of the EU are some of the world's largest and most influential languages.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.nocturne.ca/nn-worldlanguages.htm|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100302063751/http://www.nocturne.ca/nn-worldlanguages.htm|archive-date=2 March 2010|title=Languages of the world|work=Nocturne|access-date=26 July 2014}}</ref>
Andrew Reding also takes the [[Future enlargement of the European Union|future EU enlargement]] into account. An eventual future accession of the rest of [[Europe]], the whole of [[Russia]], and [[Turkey]], would not only boost [[Economy of the European Union|its economy]], but it would also increase the EU's population to about 800 million, which he considers almost equal to that of [[India]] or [[China]]. The EU is qualitatively different from India and China since it is enormously more prosperous and technologically advanced.<ref name="A. R." /> Turkish PM [[Recep Tayyip Erdoğan]] said in 2005: "In 10 or 15 years, the EU will be a place where civilizations meet. It will be a superpower with the inclusion of Turkey."<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.turkishweekly.net/2005/06/04/news/-eu-will-be-super-power-with-turkey/|publisher=Turkish Weekly|title=EU will be Super Power with Turkey|access-date=10 February 2012}}</ref>
Robert J. Guttman wrote in 2001 that the very definition of the term superpower has changed, and in the 21st century it does not only refer to states with military power, but also to groups such as the European Union, with strong market economics, young, highly educated workers savvy in high technology, and a global vision.<ref>{{cite book|url=https://archive.org/details/europeinnewcentu00robe|url-access=registration|quote=Europe emerging superpower.|title=Europe in the New Century: Visions of an Emerging Superpower|publisher=[[Lynne Rienner Publishers]]|year=2001|isbn=9781555878528|access-date=10 February 2012}}</ref> Friis Arne Petersen, the [[Denmark|Danish]] ambassador to the US, has expressed similar views but has conceded that the EU is a "special kind of superpower", one that has yet to establish a unified military force that exerts itself even close to the same level as many of its individual members.<ref>{{cite web|author=Trevor Williams|url=http://www.globalatlanta.com/danish-envoy-economic-strength-makes-eu-a-rising-superpower/|title=Danish Envoy: Economic Strength Makes EU a 'Rising Superpower'|work=Globalatlanta|access-date=19 July 2014}}</ref>
Additionally, it is argued by commentators that full political integration is not required for the European Union to wield international influence: that its apparent weaknesses constitute its real strengths (as of its low-profile diplomacy and the emphasis on the rule of law)<ref name="The European Superpower"/> and that the EU represents a new and potentially more successful type of international actor than traditional ones;<ref>{{cite web|author=Adrian Hyde-Price|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090326212441/http://www.arena.uio.no/cidel/WorkshopOsloSecurity/Hyde-Price.pdf|archive-date=26 March 2009|url=http://www.arena.uio.no/cidel/WorkshopOsloSecurity/Hyde-Price.pdf|title=The EU, Power and Coercion: From 'Civilian' to 'Civilising' Power|publisher=ARENA Centre for European Studies}}</ref> however, it is uncertain if the effectiveness of such an influence would be equal to that of a more politically integrated union of states such as the United States.<ref>{{cite magazine|url=http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2005/02/10/europe-vs-america/|title=Europe vs. America by Tony Judt|magazine=The New York Review of Books|access-date=10 February 2012}}</ref>
Barry Buzan notes that the EU's potential superpower status depends on its "stateness". It is unclear though how much state-like quality is needed for the EU to be described as a superpower. Buzan states that the EU is unlikely to remain a potential superpower for a long time because although it has material wealth, its "political weakness and its erratic and difficult course of internal political development, particularly as regards a common foreign and defence policy" constrains it from being a superpower.<ref name="The United States and the Great Powers" />
[[Alexander Stubb]], former [[Prime Minister of Finland|Finnish Prime Minister]], has said that he thinks the EU is both a superpower and not a superpower. While the EU is a superpower in the sense that it is the largest [[political union]], [[single market]] and aid donor in the world, it is not a superpower in the defence or foreign policy spheres. Like Barry Buzan, Alexander Stubb thinks that the major factor constraining the EU's rise to superpower status is its lack of statehood in the international system; other factors are its lack of internal drive to project power worldwide, and continued preference for the sovereign nation-state among some Europeans. To counterbalance these, he urged the EU leaders to approve and ratify the [[Lisbon Treaty]] (which they did in 2009), create an EU foreign ministry ([[European External Action Service|EEAS]], established in 2010), develop a [[Military of the European Union|common EU defence]], hold one collective seat at the [[United Nations Security Council]] and [[Group of Seven|G7]], and address what he described as the "sour mood" toward the EU prevalent in some European countries today.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://carnegieendowment.org/files/0717carnegie-stubb.pdf|publisher=Carnegie Endowment|title=Will the EU Ever Become a Superpower?|access-date=10 February 2012}}</ref>
=== Contrary views ===
{{Globalize section|Great Britain}}
Some commentators do not believe that the EU will achieve superpower status. "The EU is not and never will be a superpower", according to the former UK [[Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs]] [[David Miliband]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.gees.org/documentos/Documen-02639.pdf|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110726024647/http://www.gees.org/documentos/Documen-02639.pdf|archive-date=2011-07-26|title=(FCO) Europe 2030: Model power not Superpower – Bruges Speech by the Rt Hon David Miliband MP Foreign Secretary|access-date=10 February 2012}}</ref> Lacking a unified foreign policy and with an inability to project military power worldwide, the EU lacks "the substance of superpowers", who by definition have "first of all military reach [and] possess the capacity to arrive quickly anywhere with troops that can impose their government's will".<ref>{{cite news|author=Amotz Asa-El|author-link=Amotz Asa-El|url=http://fr.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1226404727902|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081117034827/http://fr.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1226404727902&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull|archive-date=17 November 2008|title=Middle Israel: Barack Obama and the decline of America|newspaper=Jerusalem Post|access-date=10 February 2012}}</ref> EU parliamentarian Ilka Schroeder argues that the high degree of involvement in conflicts such as the [[Israeli–Palestinian conflict]] is used by the EU largely to compensate for European inability to project military power internationally, particularly in contrast to the US.<ref>{{cite web|author=Julie Stahl|url=http://www.crosswalk.com/1238927/|title=Europe Wants to Rival US as Military Superpower, Says EU Parliamentarian|publisher=Crosswalk.com|access-date=10 February 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120315215942/http://www.crosswalk.com/1238927/|archive-date=15 March 2012|url-status=dead}}</ref>
''[[The Economist]]'''s [[Robert Lane Greene]] notes that the lack of a strong European military only exacerbates the lack of unified EU foreign policy and discounts any EU arguments towards superpower status, noting especially that the EU's creation of a global response force rivalling the superpower's (United States) is "unthinkable".<ref>{{cite web|author=Robert Lane Greene|url=https://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/173-sovereign/30500.html|title=EU Constitution: A 'Superpower Europe' It Won't Be|publisher=Globalpolicy.org|access-date=10 February 2012}}</ref> Similarly, [[Colin S. Gray]] finds that "EU-Europe remains a political pygmy and all but military zero in any collective sense".<ref>Colin S. Gray, "Document No. 1: The Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), 2006, and the Perils of the Twenty-First Century," ''Comparative Strategy'', 25/2, (2006): p 143.</ref>
Britain's [[Michael Howard]] has warned against the "worry" that many Europeans are pushing for greater EU integration to counterbalance the United States,<ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/4020973.stm|work=BBC News|title=Howard warning on EU 'superpower'|access-date=22 May 2010}}</ref> while Europe's total reliance on soft (non-military) power is in part because of its lack of a "shared identity".<ref>{{cite web|author=Iskra Kirova|url=http://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/pdin_monitor_article/the_european_union_a_quiet_superpower_or_a_relic_of_the_past|title=The European Union, a "Quiet Superpower" or a Relic of the Past|publisher=USC Center on Public Diplomacy|access-date=28 May 2014}}</ref> While to some the European Union should be a "model power" unafraid of using military force and backing free trade, its military shortcomings argue against superpower status.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7097162.stm|title=Miliband EU speech in full|work=BBC News|access-date=28 June 2014}}</ref>
According to [[Zbigniew Brzezinski]], the European Union did not produce a real "union" but a "misnomer". It failed to use the years of "Europe whole and free" to make Europe truly whole and its freedom firmly secure. The notion of Europe as "a political and military heavyweight" became "increasingly illusory". Europe, once the centre of the West, became an extension of a West whose defining player is America.<ref>Zbigniew Brzezinski, ''Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power'', (New York: Basic Books, 2012), p 22, 126.</ref>
[[George Osborne]], former British [[Chancellor of the Exchequer]], has also pointed out [[European debt crisis|the economic crisis]] of the European Union. Osborne said, "The biggest economic risk facing Europe doesn't come from those who want reform and re-negotiation. It comes from a failure to reform and renegotiate. It is the status quo which condemns the people of Europe to an ongoing economic crisis and continuing decline." Osborne also said that the EU is facing growing competition with global economic powers like China, India and the US, and the European Union should "reform or decline".<ref>{{cite news|author=James Kirkup|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10572725/George-Osborne-lectures-the-EU-on-reform.html |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220112/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10572725/George-Osborne-lectures-the-EU-on-reform.html |archive-date=2022-01-12 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live|title=George Osborne lectures the EU on reform|newspaper=Telegraph|access-date=17 March 2014|location=London}}{{cbignore}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/EU-falling-behind-India-China-British-finance-minister/articleshow/28839348.cms|title=EU falling behind India, China: British finance minister|newspaper=[[The Times of India]]|access-date=17 March 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|author=Andrew Osborn|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-osborne-idUSBREA0F05020140116#lYdgZKhqtUbbQehB.97|title=Reform or lose us as member, Britain's finance minister tells EU|work=Reuters|access-date=17 March 2014}}</ref>
Despite lacking a cohesive military of its own, with military capabilities still in the hands of individual member states, it has been argued that this is irrelevant when considering the status of the EU as a potential superpower.<ref>{{cite book|url=https://archive.org/details/europeinnewcentu00robe|url-access=registration|quote=Europe emerging superpower.|title=Europe in the New Century: Visions of an Emerging Superpower|publisher=[[Lynne Rienner Publishers]]|year=2001|isbn=9781555878528|access-date=10 February 2012}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|author=Trevor Williams|url=http://www.globalatlanta.com/danish-envoy-economic-strength-makes-eu-a-rising-superpower/|title=Danish Envoy: Economic Strength Makes EU a 'Rising Superpower'|work=Globalatlanta|date=29 October 2008|access-date=19 July 2014}}</ref> Others disagree, saying that its lack of a unified military structure compared to the United States undermines its claim to be a potential superpower.<ref>{{cite web|author=Robert Lane Greene|url=https://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/173-sovereign/30500.html|title=EU Constitution: A 'Superpower Europe' It Won't Be|publisher=Globalpolicy.org|date=18 July 2003|access-date=10 February 2012}}</ref><ref>Colin S. Gray, "Document No. 1: The Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), 2006, and the Perils of the Twenty-First Century," ''Comparative Strategy'', 25/2, (2006): p 143.</ref>
On 31 January 2020, the United Kingdom, the EU's fourth largest financial contributor after Germany, France and Italy,<ref>{{Cite web|title=EU budget|url=https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget_en|access-date=2021-07-27|website=European Commission – European Commission|language=en}}</ref> withdrew from the European Union. This represented the first time a member state left the union and its antecedent institutions since the [[European Economic Community]] was [[Treaty of Rome|established in 1957]]. Some claim that [[Brexit]] could delay the EU's goal of becoming a global superpower.<ref>{{cite news |title=Brexit Britain has ensured EU is even 'further away' from EVER becoming global superpower |url=https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1399552/Brexit-Britain-news-latest-EU-update-global-superpower-latest-update-vn |work=Express.co.uk |language=en}}</ref>
There have also been conflicting views about the EU's lack of political integration. Some have argued that its "lower profile" diplomacy and emphasis on the rule of law represent a new kind of geopolitical influence that fulfills the political requirements for consideration as a superpower, rather than simply failing to meet them.<ref name="The European Superpower" /><ref>{{cite web|author=Adrian Hyde-Price|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090326212441/http://www.arena.uio.no/cidel/WorkshopOsloSecurity/Hyde-Price.pdf|archive-date=26 March 2009|date=23 October 2004|url=http://www.arena.uio.no/cidel/WorkshopOsloSecurity/Hyde-Price.pdf|title=The EU, Power and Coercion: From 'Civilian' to 'Civilising' Power|publisher=ARENA Centre for European Studies}}</ref> Others however argue that its lack of a centralised foreign or defence policy leaves its effectiveness uncertain when compared to that of a more politically integrated union of states such as the United States,<ref>{{cite magazine|url=https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2005/02/10/europe-vs-america/|title=Europe vs. America by Tony Judt|magazine=The New York Review of Books|date=10 February 2005|access-date=10 February 2012}}</ref><ref name="The United States and the Great Powers">{{cite book |last=Buzan |first=Barry |title=The United States and the Great Powers |publisher=Polity Press |year=2004 |isbn=0-7456-3375-7 |location=Cambridge, United Kingdom |page=70}}</ref> and it has even been argued that the EU is little more than an extension of a Europe reliant on or dominated by the United States.<ref>Zbigniew Brzezinski, ''Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power'', (New York: Basic Books, 2012), p 22, 126.</ref>
== India ==
The European Union has been called a "regulatory superpower" due to the [[Brussels effect]], which suggests that [[Regulation (European Union)|regulations]] and [[EU standard|standards applicable in the EU]] will also be adopted by numerous countries outside the EU over time.<ref>{{Cite web |last=dmalloy |date=2023-06-15 |title=The world's regulatory superpower is taking on a regulatory nightmare: artificial intelligence |url=https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-worlds-regulatory-superpower-is-taking-on-a-regulatory-nightmare-artificial-intelligence/ |access-date=2023-09-15 |website=Atlantic Council |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=kdaponte |date=2023-05-24 |title=Meta fine shows EU is 'regulatory superpower,' Northeastern expert says |url=https://cssh.northeastern.edu/meta-fine-shows-eu-is-regulatory-superpower-northeastern-expert-says/ |access-date=2023-09-15 |website=College of Social Sciences and Humanities |language=en-us}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Bradford |first=Anu |date=2020-03-01 |title=The Brussels Effect: How the European Union Rules the World |url=https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/books/232 |journal=Faculty Books|doi=10.1093/oso/9780190088583.001.0001 |isbn=978-0-19-008858-3 |url-access=subscription }}</ref>
The [[India|Republic of India]] has seen considerable coverage of its potential of becoming a superpower, both in the media and among academics.<ref name="rising"/><ref>{{cite web| title=India welcomed as new sort of superpower| publisher=Highbeam |url=https://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-111273946.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140629120629/http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-111273946.html |url-status=dead| archive-date=June 29, 2014| date=July 21, 2005| last=Giridharadas| first=Anand| access-date=August 2, 2014}}</ref> In 1998, government scientists [[Abdul Kalam]] and [[Y. S. Rajan]] co-authored book ''India 2020: A Vision for the New Millennium'', predicting India becoming a superpower by 2020.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://scroll.in/article/948319/india-superpower-2020-tracing-the-brief-history-of-a-spectacularly-incorrect-prediction |title=India Superpower 2020: Tracing the brief history of a spectacularly incorrect prediction |website=The Scroll India |first=Shoaib |last=Daniyal |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200102053719/https://scroll.in/article/948319/india-superpower-2020-tracing-the-brief-history-of-a-spectacularly-incorrect-prediction |archive-date=2 January 2020}}</ref> In 2006, ''[[Newsweek]]'' and the ''[[International New York Times|International Herald Tribune]]'' joined several academics in discussing India's potential of becoming a superpower.<ref name="rising">{{cite magazine |url=http://www.newsweek.com/india-rising-106259 |title=India Rising |magazine=Newsweek |last=Zakaria |first=Fareed |access-date=August 2, 2014}}</ref><ref name="IndiaSuperpower">{{cite web|url=http://realtruth.org/articles/434-iasitm.html |title=India: A Superpower in the Making? |last=Ambrose |first=Jeffrey R. |publisher=RealTruth.org |access-date=August 2, 2014}}</ref>
[[Anil Kumar Gupta|Anil Gupta]] is almost certain that India will become a superpower in the 21st century. As an example, he predicts that due to India's functional institutions of democracy, it will emerge as a desirable, entrepreneurial and resource and energy-efficient superpower in the near future. He had predicted that by 2015 India would overtake China to be the fastest-growing economy in the world and predicted an emergence as a full-fledged economic superpower by 2025. In addition to that, he states, India has the potential to serve as a leading example of how to combine rapid economic growth with fairness towards and inclusion of those at the bottom rungs of the ladder and of efficient resource utilization, especially in energy.<ref>{{cite news |title=India 2025: What kind of superpower? |first=Michael |last=Dingman |work=[[The Economic Times]] |publisher=Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd. |url=https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/et-commentary/india-2025-what-kind-of-superpower/articleshow/7238752.cms|access-date=2012-02-10}}</ref> India briefly became the world's fastest-growing economy in 2015 but growth declined below China's since 2018.<ref>{{cite news|title=India to beat China again as fastest-growing economy in 2016: IMF |work=[[The Economic Times]] |publisher=Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd. |url=http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-07-09/news/64243978_1_growth-projection-world-economic-outlook-update-fastest-growing-economy |access-date=20 November 2015 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|title=India loses place as world's fastest-growing economy |language=en-GB |work=BBC News |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48478028 |access-date=2020-10-18}}</ref>
Economists and researchers at [[Harvard University]] have projected India's 7% projected annual growth rate through 2024 would continue to put it ahead of China, making India the fastest growing economy in the world.<ref>{{cite news |title=New Growth Projections Predict the Rise of India, East Africa and Fall of Oil Economies |url=http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/articles/new-growth-projections |website=Harvard Kennedy School |access-date=12 April 2016 |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20160508145617/https://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/articles/new-growth-projections |archivedate=2016-05-08}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=India Will Be Fastest-Growing Economy for Coming Decade, Harvard Researchers Predict |work=The Wall Street Journal |first=Raymond |last=Zhong |url=https://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2016/01/01/india-will-be-fastest-growing-economy-for-coming-decade-harvard-researchers-predict/ |access-date=12 April 2016 }}</ref> In 2017, Center for International Development at Harvard University, published a research study,<ref name="2025 Projections Harvard"/> projecting that India has emerged<ref name="2025 Projections Harvard"/> as the economic pole of global growth by surpassing China and is expected to maintain its lead over the 2020s.<ref name="2025 Projections Harvard">{{cite web |title=New 2025 Global Growth Projections Predict China's Further Slowdown and the Continued Rise of India |url=http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/rankings/growth-predictions/ |work=The Atlas of Economic Complexity |publisher=[[Harvard University]] |access-date=10 July 2017}}</ref>
Robyn Meredith pointed out in 2007 that the average incomes of Europeans and Americans are higher than Chinese and Indians, and hundreds of millions of Chinese, as well as Indians, live in poverty, she also suggested that the economic growth of these nations has been the most important factor in reducing global poverty of the last two decades, as per the World Bank report.<ref name="elephantdragon" /> [[Amy Chua]] adds to this, that India still faces many problems such as "pervasive rural poverty, entrenched [[corruption in India|corruption]], and high [[economic inequality|inequality]] just to name a few". However, she notes that India has made tremendous strides to fix this, stating that some of India's achievements, such as working to dismantle the centuries-old [[caste|caste system]] and maintaining the world's largest diverse democracy, are historically unprecedented.<ref name="Chua, A 2007"/>
[[Fareed Zakaria]] pointing out that India's young population coupled with the [[List of countries by English-speaking population|second-largest]] [[English language|English]]-speaking population in the world could give India an advantage over China. He also believes that while other industrial countries will face a youth gap, India will have many young people, or in other words, workers, and by 2050, its per capita income will rise by twenty times its current level. According to Zakaria, another strength that India has is that its democratic government has lasted for 60 years, stating that a democracy can provide for long-term stability, which has given India a name.<ref>{{cite book |last=Zakaria |first=Fareed |authorlink=Fareed Zakaria |title=The Post-American World |publisher=W. W. Norton and Company |isbn=978-0-393-06235-9}}</ref>
[[Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr.]], founder and president of the Economic Strategy Institute and former counselor to the Secretary of Commerce in the [[Presidency of Ronald Reagan|Reagan administration]], has predicted that "It is going to be India's century. India is going to be the biggest economy in the world. It is going to be the biggest superpower of the 21st century."<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.rediff.com/money/2006/mar/29minter.htm |title=India will be the biggest superpower |work=Rediff |year=2006 |access-date=19 July 2014}}</ref>
According to the report titled "Indian Century: Defining India's Place in a Rapidly Changing Global Economy" by the [[IBM]] Institute for Business Value, India is predicted to be among the world's highest-growth nations over the coming years.<ref name="IBM India Century">{{cite journal |last=Subramanian |first=Samanth |title=The Outlier:The inscrutable politics of Subramanian Swamy |url=http://www.caravanmagazine.in/reportage/outlier |journal=The Caravan: A Journal of Politics & Culture |access-date=29 March 2018}}</ref><ref name="IBM 21">{{cite news |title=India to be world's highest growth nation in 21st century: IBM study |url=http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-to-be-world-s-highest-growth-nation-in-21st-century-ibm-study-115121000918_1.html |work=[[Business Standard]] |access-date=11 February 2016}}</ref><ref name="IBM">{{cite web |title=21st century is India's century: IBM chief Virginia Rometty|url=http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/21st-century-is-indias-century-ibm-chief-virginia-rometty_1963021.html|work=[[Moneycontrol.com]]|access-date=11 February 2016}}</ref>
=== Contrary views ===
[[Parag Khanna]] wrote in 2008 that he believes that India is not, nor will it become a superpower for the foreseeable future, lagging decades behind China in both development and strategic appetite.<ref>{{cite news |last=Khanna |first=Parag |authorlink=Parag Khanna |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/magazine/27world-t.html |title=Waving Goodbye to Hegemony |newspaper=[[The New York Times]] |access-date=2012-02-10}}</ref> He says that India is "big but not important", has a highly successful professional class, while millions of its citizens still live in [[poverty in India|poverty]]. He also writes that it matters that China borders a dozen more countries than India and is not hemmed in by a vast ocean and the world's tallest mountains.<ref>{{cite web |last=Khanna |first=Parag |authorlink=Parag Khanna |url=http://www.newamerica.net/node/8987 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110629133515/http://www.newamerica.net/node/8987 |archive-date=2011-06-29 |title=The Rise of Non-Americanism |publisher=New America Foundation |access-date=2012-02-10}}</ref> However, in a recent article written by Khanna, he says that India, along with China, will grow ever stronger, while other powers, like Europe, muddle along.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://paragkhanna.com/future-shock-welcome-to-the-new-middle-ages/ |title=Future Shock? Welcome to the New Middle Ages |work=Financial Times |first=Parag |last=Khanna |access-date=2012-02-10 |authorlink=Parag Khanna}}</ref>
[[Lant Pritchett]], reviewing the book ''In Spite of the Gods: The Strange Rise of Modern India'', writes that, while India has had impressive growth and has some world-class institutions, several other indicators are puzzlingly poor. The [[malnutrition in India|malnutrition]] and the coverage of [[immunization]] programs are at levels similar or worse than in many sub-Saharan African nations. In the [[Demographic and Health Surveys]], India's child malnutrition was the worst of the 42 nations with comparable and recent data.<ref name="doi10.1257/jel.47.3.771">{{Cite journal |last=Pritchett |first=Lant |authorlink=Lant Pritchett |title=A Review of Edward Luce's 'In Spite of the Gods: The Strange Rise of Modern India' |doi=10.1257/jel.47.3.771 |journal=Journal of Economic Literature |volume=47 |issue=3 |pages=771–081 |year=2009}}</ref>
Adult [[literacy]] is 61%. In one study, 26% of teachers were absent from work and {{frac|1|3}}rd of those showing up did not teach. 40% of health care workers were absent from work. [[Caste politics in India]] remains an important force. Pritchett argues that a very large population, a very long statistical "tail" of high quality students, and some very good higher education institutions gives a misleading impression of Indian education. Indian students placed forty-first and thirty-seventh in a study comparing students in the two Indian states [[Odisha]] and [[Rajasthan]] to the forty-six nations in the 2003 [[Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study]].<ref name="doi10.1257/jel.47.3.771" /> In the [[Programme for International Student Assessment (2000 to 2012)|Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA)]] 2009, the two Indian states ranked 72nd and 73rd out of 74 countries in both reading and mathematics, and 73rd and 74th in science.<ref name="autogenerated1">{{cite web |title=Database – PISA 2009 |url=http://pisa2009.acer.edu.au/interactive_results.php |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160322032020/http://pisa2009.acer.edu.au/interactive_results.php |archive-date=2016-03-22|access-date=2016-04-15 |publisher=Pisa2009.acer.edu.au}}</ref>
[[Manjari Miller|Manjari Chatterjee Miller]], assistant professor of international relations at [[Boston University]], argues that India is a "would-be" great power but "resists its own rise".<ref name="FA Miller 14">{{cite journal |last=Miller |first=Manjari Chatterjee |authorlink=Manjari Miller |title=India's Feeble Foreign Policy |journal=Foreign Affairs |volume=92 |issue=3 |page=14 |url=https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/india/2013-04-03/indias-feeble-foreign-policy|access-date=27 June 2013}}</ref> Three factors contribute to this stagnation, she argues. First, [[New Delhi]]'s foreign policy decisions are highly individualistic.<ref name="FA Miller 14"/> "This autonomy, in turn, means that New Delhi does very little collective thinking about its long-term foreign policy goals, since most of the strategic planning that takes place within the government happens on an individual level".<ref>{{cite journal |last=Miller |first=Manjari Chatterjee |authorlink=Manjari Miller |title=India's Feeble Foreign Policy|journal=Foreign Affairs|volume= 92|issue= 3|page=15|url=https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/india/2013-04-03/indias-feeble-foreign-policy|access-date=27 June 2013}}</ref> Second, a dearth of [[think tank]]s helps insulate Indian foreign policymakers from outside influences.<ref name="FA Miller 14"/> "U.S. foreign policymakers, by contrast, can expect strategic guidance from a broad spectrum of organizations that supplement the long-term planning that happens within the government itself".<ref>{{cite journal |last=Miller |first=Manjari Chatterjee |authorlink=Manjari Miller |title=India's Feeble Foreign Policy| journal=Foreign Affairs| date=May–June 2013| volume= 92| issue= 3| page=17| url=https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/india/2013-04-03/indias-feeble-foreign-policy| access-date=27 June 2013}}</ref> Third, many of India's political elites believe that the country's inevitable rise is a [[Western world|Western]] construct that has placed unrealistic expectations on India's economic growth forecasts and its international commitments.<ref name="FA Miller 14"/> By contrast, Miller notes that Chinese political leaders pay very close attention to the international hype surrounding their country's growing stature.<ref name="FA Miller 14"/> Miller concludes that "India's inability to develop top-down, long-term strategies means that it cannot systematically consider the implications of its growing power. So long as this remains the case, the country will not play the role in global affairs that many expect."<ref>{{cite journal |last=Miller |first=Manjari Chatterjee |authorlink=Manjari Miller |title=India's Feeble Foreign Policy| journal=Foreign Affairs| date=May–June 2013| volume= 92| issue= 3| page=18| url=https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/india/2013-04-03/indias-feeble-foreign-policy| access-date=27 June 2013}}</ref>
== Russia ==
== Russia ==
{{Further|History of Russia (1991–present)}}
{{Further|Russia as an energy superpower|History of the Russian Federation}}
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The [[Russia|Russian Federation]], the world's largest state by land mass, is home to over 30% of the world's [[natural resource]]s according to some sources, thus being identified as an [[energy superpower]].<ref name="ems.psu.edu">Kevin M. Korabik, [http://www.ems.psu.edu/~williams/russia.htm Russia's Natural Resources and their Economic Effects] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190720062114/https://www.ems.psu.edu/~williams/russia.htm }}, ''[[Penn State College of Earth and Mineral Sciences]]'', 1 December 1997</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.eepcindia.com/download/Circular-160411115935.pdf |title=India Partner Country at INNOPROM-2016 Show: Russia: (11–14 July 2016, Yekaterinburg, Russia) |publisher=[[Engineering Exports Promotion Council|EEPC India]] |access-date=4 January 2017 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160611000234/http://www.eepcindia.com/download/Circular-160411115935.pdf |archive-date=11 June 2016 |url-status=dead }}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.oceanunite.org/round-up/pre-empting-russias-year-ecology/|title=Pre-empting Russia's Year of Ecology|work=Ocean Unite}}</ref> Since its [[Russian Empire|imperial times]], it has been both a [[great power]] and a [[regional power]]. Throughout most of the [[Soviet Union|Soviet]]-era, the Soviet Union was one of the world's two [[superpower]]s. However, after the [[dissolution of the Soviet Union]], the Russian Federation as its successor state lost its superpower status. In the early 21st century, Russia has been suggested as a potential candidate for resuming superpower status,<ref name="Russia in the 21st Century"/><ref name="georgiandaily.com">New York Times by Ronald Steel professor of international relations August 24, 2008 (Superpower Reborn)[http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6527&Itemid=68&lang=ka]</ref><ref>{{cite web|author=Farooque Chowdhury|url=http://www.countercurrents.org/chowdhury221213.htm|title=A Militarily Resurging Russia|publisher=Counter Currents|access-date=13 September 2015}}</ref> while others have made the assertion that it is already a superpower.<ref>{{cite news|title=A Superpower Is Reborn|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/24/opinion/24steel.html?_r=0|newspaper=The New York Times|access-date=19 November 2015}}</ref> In 2009, [[Hugo Chávez]], late President of [[Venezuela]] whose government was noted to have enjoyed warm relations with the [[Government of Russia|Kremlin]], stated that "Russia is a superpower" when recognizing the sovereignty of two Russia-installed [[Russian-occupied territories in Georgia|separatist regimes]] in Georgia, citing waning American influence in global affairs, and suggested the [[Russian ruble|ruble]] be elevated to a global currency.<ref>{{cite news|author=Megan K. Stack|url=https://articles.latimes.com/2009/sep/11/world/fg-russia-chavez11|title=Venezuela's Hugo Chavez recognizes independence of breakaway Georgia republics|newspaper=[[Los Angeles Times]]|access-date=7 July 2014}}</ref> [[Israel]]i Prime Minister [[Benjamin Netanyahu]] called Russia an important superpower, praising its effectiveness as an ally of Israel.<ref>{{cite web|author=Robert Berger|url=http://www.voanews.com/content/netanyahu-heads-to-russia-with-call-for-crippling-sanctions-on-iran-84341537/112463.html|title=Netanyahu Heads to Russia with Call for 'Crippling Sanctions' on Iran|publisher=[[Voice of America]]|access-date=7 July 2014}}</ref> In his 2005 publication entitled ''Russia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower'', [[Steven Rosefielde]], a professor of economics at [[University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill]], predicted that Russia would emerge as a superpower before 2010 and augur another arms race. However, Rosefielde noted that such an end would come with tremendous sacrifice to global security and the Russian people's freedom.<ref>{{cite book|author=Steven Rosefielde|author-link=Steven Rosefielde|url=http://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/economics/international-economics/russia-21st-century-prodigal-superpower|title=Russia in the 21st Century|publisher=[[University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill|UNC]] Press|isbn=978-0-521-54529-7}}</ref>
[[Russia]], since [[Russian Empire|its imperial times]], has been considered both a [[great power]] and a [[regional power]]. Throughout most of the [[Soviet Union|Soviet]]-era, the Soviet Union was one of the world's two [[superpower]]s. However, after the [[dissolution of the Soviet Union]], the Russian Federation as its successor state lost its superpower status.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Minkina |first=Mirosław |date=2019-09-30 |title=Russia's return to the superpower status |url=https://securityanddefence.pl/Russia-s-return-to-the-superpower-status,110335,0,2.html |journal=Security and Defence Quarterly |volume=26 |issue=4 |pages=34–50 |doi=10.35467/sdq/110335 |issn=2300-8741|hdl=11331/2402 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> In his 2005 publication entitled ''Russia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower'', [[Steven Rosefielde]], a professor of economics at [[University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill]], predicted that Russia would emerge as a superpower before 2010 and augur another arms race. However, Rosefielde noted that such an end would come with tremendous sacrifice to global security and the Russian people's freedom.<ref>{{cite book|author=Steven Rosefielde|author-link=Steven Rosefielde|url=http://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/economics/international-economics/russia-21st-century-prodigal-superpower|title=Russia in the 21st Century|publisher=[[University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill|UNC]] Press|date=February 2005|isbn=978-0-521-54529-7}}</ref>{{Page needed|date=December 2023}}
In 2014, [[Stephen Kinzer]] of ''[[The Boston Globe]]'' compared Russia's actions with its own neighbouring territories, to those of "any other superpower", taking [[2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine|Ukraine]] and [[Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation|Crimea]] as examples.<ref>{{cite news|author=Stephen Kinzer|url=https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/05/11/russia-acts-like-any-other-superpower/AJRSNiIUYQPAHRlLXcfIlJ/story.html|title=Russia acts like any other superpower|newspaper=Boston Globe|access-date=7 July 2014}}</ref> A mixed opinion has been offered by Matthew Fleischer of the ''[[Los Angeles Times]]'': he contends that Russia will not become a superpower unless [[climate change]] eats away at the [[permafrost]] that covers, as of March 2014, two-thirds of the country's landmass. The absence of this permafrost would reveal immense stores of oil, natural gas, and precious minerals, as well as potential farmland, which would allow Russia to "become the world's bread basket—and control the planet's food supply".<ref>{{cite news|author=Matthew Fleischer|url=https://www.latimes.com/opinion/opinion-la/la-ol-climate-change-russia-super-power-20140311-story.html|title=How curbing climate change can prevent Russia from becoming a superpower|newspaper=Los Angeles Times|access-date=7 July 2014}}</ref>
Others however have put forward more pessimistic views towards Russia's ability to regain its superpower status. A mixed opinion has been offered by Matthew Fleischer of the ''[[Los Angeles Times]]'', contending that severe climate change would be necessary for much of Russia's inherent natural resources to become viable.<ref>{{cite news|author=Matthew Fleischer|url=https://www.latimes.com/opinion/opinion-la/la-ol-climate-change-russia-super-power-20140311-story.html|title=How curbing climate change can prevent Russia from becoming a superpower|newspaper=Los Angeles Times|date=12 March 2014|access-date=7 July 2014}}</ref>
=== Contrary views ===
Several analysts commented on the fact that Russia showed signs of an aging and shrinking population. [[Fred Weir]] said that this severely constricts and limits Russia's potential to re-emerge as a central world power.<ref>{{cite news|author=Fred Weir|url=http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/europe/russia/111102/russia-population-superpower-health-soviet-union|title=Despite huge cash bonuses to mothers, Russia's population is shrinking|work=GlobalPost|date=3 November 2011|access-date=8 July 2014}}</ref> In 2011, British historian and professor [[Niall Ferguson]] also highlighted the negative effects of Russia's declining population, and suggested that Russia is on its way to "global irrelevance".<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Niall Ferguson|url=https://www.newsweek.com/decline-putins-russia-its-way-global-irrelevance-65847|title=In Decline, Putin's Russia Is On Its Way to Global Irrelevance|magazine=[[Newsweek]]|date=12 December 2011|access-date=2 August 2014}}</ref> Russia has, however, shown a slight population growth since the late 2000s, partly due to immigration, quickly rising birth rates, slowly declining death rates.<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Mark Adomanis|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/05/11/russias-population-isnt-shrinking-its-growing-very-very-slowly/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130609004205/http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/05/11/russias-population-isnt-shrinking-its-growing-very-very-slowly/|url-status=dead|archive-date=June 9, 2013|title=Russia's Population Isn't Shrinking (It's Growing Very, Very Slowly)|magazine=Forbes|date=11 May 2013|access-date=8 July 2014}}</ref>
During the annual [[State of the Nation (Russia)|state of the nation]] address at the [[Moscow Kremlin]] in December 2013, Russian president [[Vladimir Putin]] denied any Russian aspiration to be a superpower. He was quoted saying: "We do not aspire to be called some kind of superpower, understanding that as a claim to world or regional hegemony. We do not infringe on anyone's interests, we do not force our patronage on anyone, or try to teach anyone how to live."<ref>{{cite news|work=Reuters|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-putin-usa-idUSBRE9BB09M20131212#JyFg7fEQaBur6ogM.97|title=Russia is a force for moral good but no superpower|access-date=2 August 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2013/12/12/putin-rossiya-ne-pretenduet-na-status-sverhderzhavy|script-title=ru:Путин: Россия не претендует на статус сверхдержавы|trans-title=Putin: Russia does not make claims to superpower status|language=ru|publisher=[[Vedomosti]]|website=vedomosti.ru|access-date=8 July 2014}}</ref>
Several analysts commented on the fact that Russia showed signs of an aging and shrinking population. [[Fred Weir]] said that this severely constricts and limits Russia's potential to re-emerge as a central world power.<ref>{{cite news|author=Fred Weir|url=http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/europe/russia/111102/russia-population-superpower-health-soviet-union|title=Despite huge cash bonuses to mothers, Russia's population is shrinking|work=GlobalPost|access-date=8 July 2014}}</ref> In 2011, British historian and professor [[Niall Ferguson]] also highlighted the negative effects of Russia's declining population, and suggested that Russia is on its way to "global irrelevance".<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Niall Ferguson|url=http://www.newsweek.com/decline-putins-russia-its-way-global-irrelevance-65847|title=In Decline, Putin's Russia Is On Its Way to Global Irrelevance|magazine=[[Newsweek]]|access-date=2 August 2014}}</ref> Russia has, however, shown a slight population growth since the late 2000s, partly due to immigration and slowly rising birth rates.<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Mark Adomanis|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/05/11/russias-population-isnt-shrinking-its-growing-very-very-slowly/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130609004205/http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/05/11/russias-population-isnt-shrinking-its-growing-very-very-slowly/|url-status=dead|archive-date=June 9, 2013|title=Russia's Population Isn't Shrinking (It's Growing Very, Very Slowly)|magazine=Forbes|access-date=8 July 2014}}</ref>
In the 21st century, many scholars view Russia's global influence as being in decline.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Taylor |first1=Brian D. |title=Russian Politics: A Very Short Introduction |publisher=Oxford University Press |year=2024 |isbn=978-0-19-751602-7 |pages=21–40 |chapter=Power, status, and greatness |doi=10.1093/actrade/9780197516027.003.0002 |quote=Although the lines sometimes can be blurry, there are only three countries in the world that international relations experts typically classify as having been a great power for the past 300 years: Britain, France, and Russia... Russia's geographic size, nuclear weapons, and permanent UN Security Council seat guarantee its continuing great power status... Yet the greater economic power of the United States, the European Union, and China, as well as rising countries... meant that Russia's future standing in the world remained in doubt even before the Russo-Ukraine War.}}</ref><ref name="f495">{{cite journal |last=Šćepanović |first=Janko |date=22 March 2023 |title=Still a great power? Russia's status dilemmas post-Ukraine war |journal=Journal of Contemporary European Studies |publisher=Informa UK Limited |volume=32 |issue=1 |pages=80–95 |doi=10.1080/14782804.2023.2193878 |issn=1478-2804 |quote=Drezner, as well as others like Dan Depetris, agrees that, on principle, Russia can still be counted among the great powers... At the same time, scholars rightly wonder what rank within the great power club Russia belongs to...}}</ref> Russia's ability to project hard power was also questioned following the [[Russian invasion of Ukraine]] in 2022, with the Russian military's poor performance prompting economist [[Paul Krugman]] to suggest Russia was little more than a "[[Potemkin village|Potemkin]] Superpower".<ref>{{cite journal|author=[[Paul Krugman]]|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/opinion/putin-military-sanctions-weakness.html|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220301041314/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/opinion/putin-military-sanctions-weakness.html|url-status=live|archive-date=1 March 2022|title=Russia Is a Potemkin Superpower|journal=[[New York Times]]|date=28 February 2022|access-date=1 March 2022}}</ref>
Nathan Smith of the ''[[National Business Review]]'' has said that despite Russia having potential, it did not win the new "Cold War" in the 1980s, and thus makes superpower status inaccurate.<ref>{{cite news|author=Nathan Smith|url=http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/do-not-treat-russia-superpower-it-isnt-ns-152930|title=Do not treat Russia like a superpower, it isn't|newspaper=[[National Business Review]]|access-date=7 July 2014}}</ref> [[Dmitry Medvedev]] predicted that if the Russian elite is not consolidated, Russia will disappear as a single state.<ref name="shevchenko">[http://www.phisci.ru/files/issues/2015/02/RJPS_2015-02_Shevchenko.pdf Философские науки — 2/2015. В. Н. Шевченко. К дискуссиям вокруг темы «Распад России»: В поисках оптимальной формы Российского государства]{{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160920214334/http://www.phisci.ru/files/issues/2015/02/RJPS_2015-02_Shevchenko.pdf }}</ref> [[Vladimir Putin]] said the moment the [[North Caucasian Federal District|Caucasus]] leaves Russia, other territorial regions would follow.<ref>{{Cite news|title=Владимир Путин: Отделение Кавказа от России приведет к развалу страны|language=ru|trans-title=Vladimir Putin: Separation of the Caucasus from Russia will lead to the collapse of the country|work=Российская газета|url=https://rg.ru/2011/12/20/reg-skfo/gudermes-anons.html|access-date=2018-05-06 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210729223249/https://rg.ru/2011/12/20/reg-skfo/gudermes-anons.html |archive-date=July 29, 2021}}</ref>
== India ==
{{Further|Indian Century | Indianisation | Greater India | Indosphere | Indomania }}
[[Paul Krugman]] in his ''[[New York Times]]'' column described Russia as a "[[Potemkin village|Potemkin]] Superpower" in reaction to the [[2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine]]. He stated that "Russia is even weaker than most people, myself included, seem to have realized", that the military performance of Russia "has been less effective than advertised" in a stalemate at the beginning of the invasion, and that Russia encountered serious logistical problems. Krugman observed that the country's total [[gross domestic product]] is only a bit more than half as large as those of countries such as Britain and France, despite Russia's landmass, total population and natural resource endowment. Due to the [[International sanctions during the Russo-Ukrainian War|international sanctions]], Russia has become even weaker economically than it did before it went to war. Its standard of living is sustained by large imports of manufactured goods, mostly paid for via exports of oil and natural gas. This leaves Russia’s economy highly vulnerable to sanctions that might disrupt this trade. He concluded "Russia now stands revealed as a Potemkin superpower, with far less real strength than meets the eye."<ref>{{cite journal|author=[[Paul Krugman]]|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/opinion/putin-military-sanctions-weakness.html|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220301041314/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/opinion/putin-military-sanctions-weakness.html|url-status=live|archive-date=1 March 2022|title=Russia Is a Potemkin Superpower|journal=[[New York Times]]|access-date=1 March 2022}}</ref>
[[India]] has seen considerable coverage of its potential of becoming a superpower. Multiple opinions have pointed towards India's rapid economic development as a reason for it to be considered a potential superpower, in particular during the 2010s when it was predicted to outpace China's growth into the future.{{efn|Attributed to multiple sources: <ref>{{cite news |date=2011-01-09|title=India 2025: What kind of superpower? |first=Michael |last=Dingman |work=[[The Economic Times]] |publisher=Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd. |url=https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/et-commentary/india-2025-what-kind-of-superpower/articleshow/7238752.cms|access-date=2012-02-10}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.rediff.com/money/2006/mar/29minter.htm |title=India will be the biggest superpower |work=Rediff |year=2006 |access-date=19 July 2014}}</ref><ref name="IBM India Century">{{cite journal |last=Subramanian |first=Samanth |title=The Outlier:The inscrutable politics of Subramanian Swamy |url=https://www.caravanmagazine.in/reportage/outlier |journal=The Caravan: A Journal of Politics & Culture |date=1 May 2012 |access-date=29 March 2018}}</ref><ref name="rising">{{cite magazine |last=Zakaria |first=Fareed |date=March 5, 2006 |title=India Rising |url=https://www.newsweek.com/india-rising-106259 |magazine=Newsweek |access-date=August 2, 2014}}</ref>}}
== Former prediction for Japan's potential superpower status ==
Some commentators made the prediction of India becoming a superpower by 2020, most notably based on [[A. P. J. Abdul Kalam]]'s book ''[[India 2020]]''.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2020-12-10 |title=India and the World: Looking into 2021 |url=https://openaxis.in/2020/12/11/india-and-the-world-looking-into-2021/ |access-date=2025-05-09 |website=OpenAxis |language=en-GB}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Bhagat |first=Chetan |title=Let this be India’s goal for this decade — $5,000 per capita income by 2030 |url=https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/The-underage-optimist/let-this-be-indias-goal-for-this-decade-5000-per-capita-income-by-2030/ |access-date=2025-05-09 |work=The Times of India |issn=0971-8257}}</ref> In 2019, BJP politician [[Amit Shah]] claimed that India would emerge as a superpower in the next 5 years under the rule of [[Narendra Modi]].<ref>{{Cite web |publisher=Business Standard |title=India will become 'superpower' if Modi becomes PM again: Shah |url=https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/india-will-become-superpower-if-modi-becomes-pm-again-shah-119050500673_1.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241011084804/https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/india-will-become-superpower-if-modi-becomes-pm-again-shah-119050500673_1.html |archive-date=2024-10-11 |access-date=2025-05-09 |website=www.business-standard.com |language=en-US}}</ref>
Economists and researchers at [[Harvard University]] have projected India's 7% projected annual growth rate through 2024 would continue to put it ahead of China, making India the fastest growing economy in the world.<ref>{{cite news |title=New Growth Projections Predict the Rise of India, East Africa and Fall of Oil Economies |url=https://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/articles/new-growth-projections |website=Harvard Kennedy School |access-date=12 April 2016 |date=7 May 2015 |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20160508145617/https://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/articles/new-growth-projections |archivedate=2016-05-08}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=India Will Be Fastest-Growing Economy for Coming Decade, Harvard Researchers Predict |work=The Wall Street Journal |first=Raymond |last=Zhong |url=https://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2016/01/01/india-will-be-fastest-growing-economy-for-coming-decade-harvard-researchers-predict/ |access-date=12 April 2016 |date=1 January 2016}}</ref> Over and above, India also has the advantage of having a very large and growing young population with a median age of 28, compared to China's median age of 39.<ref>{{Cite web |last1=Silver |first1=Laura |last2=Huang |first2=Christine |last3=Clancy |first3=Laura |title=Key facts as India surpasses China as the world's most populous country |url=https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/02/09/key-facts-as-india-surpasses-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country/ |access-date=2024-02-23 |website=Pew Research Center |date=9 February 2023 |language=en-US}}</ref> In 2003 [[Goldman Sachs]] predicted that India would become an economic superpower by 2050.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050 |url=https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research/brics-dream |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250214025506/https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research/brics-dream |archive-date=2025-02-14 |access-date=2025-05-09 |website=www.goldmansachs.com}}</ref> In a 2024 interview with [[The Independent]], former UK PM [[Tony Blair]] predicted that by 2050 India would be a 'global superpower' along with the United States and China.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-01-01 |title=Can India become the world’s third superpower? |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/india-modi-economy-democracy-power-china-usa-b2665016.html |access-date=2025-05-09 |website=The Independent |language=en}}</ref> In 2025 Former UK PM [[Rishi Sunak]] suggested India is an 'economic superpower'.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-10-18 |title=‘India clearly an economic superpower’: Former UK PM Rishi Sunak on US tariffs, trade, and global power shifts |url=https://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/us-news/india-clearly-an-economic-superpower-former-uk-pm-rishi-sunak-on-us-tariffs-trade-and-global-power-shifts/4014564/ |access-date=2025-10-21 |website=The Financial Express |language=en}}</ref>
In the 1980s, many political and [[financial analyst|economic analysts]] predicted that [[Japan]] would eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large population, huge [[gross domestic product]] and high [[economic growth]] at that time. Japan was expected to eventually surpass the economy of the United States, which never happened.<ref name="Zakaria, F 2008"/><ref name="Land of the setting sun"/><ref name="Japan From Superrich To Superpower"/> However, Japan is considered a [[Cultural Superpower|cultural superpower]] in terms of the large-scale influence Japanese [[Japanese cuisine|food]], [[Music of Japan|music]], [[Video gaming in Japan|video games]], [[manga]], [[anime]] and [[Cinema of Japan|movies]] have on the world.<ref>{{Cite web |title=How Japan became a pop culture superpower |url=https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-japan-became-a-pop-culture-superpower/|website=The Spectator}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Nagata |first=Kazuaki |title='Anime' makes Japan superpower |url=https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2010/09/07/reference/anime-makes-japan-superpower/ |via=Japan Times Online}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Tamaki |first1=Taku |title=Japan has turned its culture into a powerful political tool |url=http://theconversation.com/japan-has-turned-its-culture-into-a-powerful-political-tool-72821 |website=The Conversation |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |title='Pure Invention': How Japan's pop culture became the 'lingua franca' of the internet |work=[[The Japan Times]] |url=https://www.japantimes.co.jp/culture/2020/07/18/books/pure-invention-jpop-culture/}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |title=How Japan's global image morphed from military empire to eccentric pop-culture superpower |publisher=[[Quartz (publication)|Quartz]] |url=https://qz.com/1806376/japans-image-has-changed-from-fierce-to-lovable-over-the-decades/amp/}}</ref> In 2021, [[U.S. News & World Report]] ranked Japan as the most culturally influential country in Asia and 5th in the world.<ref name=":4" /> Japan is also considered to be a technological power, being the leader in the [[Automotive industry in Japan|automotive]], [[Electronics industry in Japan|electronics]] and [[Japanese robotics|robotics]] industries.<ref>{{cite web |title=Top 10 Countries for Technological Expertise, Ranked by Perception |url=https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/slideshows/top-10-countries-for-technological-expertise-ranked-by-perception |website=U.S. News & World Report}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Japan, the World's Leading "Robot Nation" |url=https://www.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en/whyutokyo/wj_003.html |publisher=[[The University of Tokyo]]}}</ref>
While India’s economic growth has continued, some analysts note that inequality remains high and that its trade potential is more limited compared to regional competitors such as China. Although India briefly became the world’s fastest-growing major economy in 2015, its growth rate has fallen below China’s since 2018.{{efn|Attributed to multiple sources: <ref>{{cite news |last=Khanna |first=Parag |authorlink=Parag Khanna |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/magazine/27world-t.html |title=Waving Goodbye to Hegemony |newspaper=[[The New York Times]] |date=2008-01-27 |access-date=2012-02-10}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last=Khanna |first=Parag |authorlink=Parag Khanna |url=http://www.newamerica.net/node/8987 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110629133515/http://www.newamerica.net/node/8987 |archive-date=2011-06-29 |title=The Rise of Non-Americanism |publisher=New America Foundation |date=2008-05-18 |access-date=2012-02-10}}</ref><ref name="doi10.1257/jel.47.3.771">{{Cite journal |last=Pritchett |first=Lant |authorlink=Lant Pritchett |title=A Review of Edward Luce's 'In Spite of the Gods: The Strange Rise of Modern India' |doi=10.1257/jel.47.3.771 |journal=Journal of Economic Literature |volume=47 |issue=3 |pages=771–081 |year=2009}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=India to beat China again as fastest-growing economy in 2016: IMF |work=[[The Economic Times]] |publisher=Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd. |url=http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-07-09/news/64243978_1_growth-projection-world-economic-outlook-update-fastest-growing-economy |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150717151633/http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-07-09/news/64243978_1_growth-projection-world-economic-outlook-update-fastest-growing-economy |url-status=dead |archive-date=July 17, 2015 |access-date=20 November 2015 |date=9 July 2015}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|date=2019-05-31|title=India loses place as world's fastest-growing economy |language=en-GB |work=BBC News |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48478028 |access-date=2020-10-18}}</ref>}} From 2021, India has grow higher than China and<ref>{{Cite web |title=https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/IND/CHN |url=https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/IND/CHN |access-date=2025-11-01 |website=www.imf.org}}</ref> remain the fastest growing major economy.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-07-16 |title=India vs. China: a growth perspective |url=https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/india-vs-china-growth-perspective |access-date=2025-12-14 |website=CaixaBank Research |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=India {{!}} World Bank Group |url=https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/country/india |access-date=2025-12-14 |website=www.worldbank.org}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Client Challenge |url=https://www.ft.com/content/c99a7605-dc0a-49d0-ade3-e1f4a17e6cad |access-date=2025-12-14 |website=www.ft.com}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |title=India Remains The Fastest Growing Economy: Morgan Stanley |url=https://www.ndtv.com/business-news/india-remains-the-fastest-growing-economy-morgan-stanley-8806132 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250801022356/https://www.ndtv.com/business-news/india-remains-the-fastest-growing-economy-morgan-stanley-8806132 |archive-date=2025-08-01 |access-date=2025-12-14 |work=www.ndtv.com |language=en |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Hernandez-Vila |first=Ivan |date=2025-11-13 |title=India Will be World’s Fastest Growing Economy in 2026: Analysts |url=https://www.devere-group.com/india-will-be-worlds-fastest-growing-economy-in-2026-analysts/ |access-date=2025-12-14 |language=en-US}}</ref>
Japan was ranked as the world's [[List of countries by Military Strength Index|fourth most-powerful military]] in 2015.<ref name="CreditSuisse2015">{{cite report|url=http://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/index.cfm?fileid=EE7A6A5D-D9D5-6204-E9E6BB426B47D054|title=The End of Globalization or a more Multipolar World?|publisher=[[Credit Suisse]] AG|first1=Michael|last1=O’Sullivan|first2=Krithika|last2=Subramanian|access-date=2017-07-14|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180215235711/http://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/index.cfm?fileid=EE7A6A5D-D9D5-6204-E9E6BB426B47D054|archive-date=2018-02-15|url-status=dead}}</ref> The military capabilities of the [[Japan Self-Defense Forces]] are held back by the pacifist [[Constitution of Japan|1947 constitution]]. However, there is a gradual push for a [[constitutional amendment]]. On 18 September 2015, the National Diet enacted the [[2015 Japanese military legislation]], a series of laws that allow Japan's Self-Defense Forces to [[Collective security|collective self-defense]] of allies in combat for the first time under its constitution.<ref>{{cite news|title=Japan enacts major changes to its self-defense laws |last=Slavin |first=Erik |location=Tokyo |newspaper=[[Stars and Stripes (newspaper)|Stars and Stripes]] |url=http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/japan-enacts-major-changes-to-its-self-defense-laws-1.368783|url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180619063041/https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/japan-enacts-major-changes-to-its-self-defense-laws-1.368783 |archive-date=June 19, 2018 }}</ref> In May 2017, former Japanese Prime Minister [[Shinzo Abe]] set a 2020 deadline for revising Article 9, which would legitimize the JSDF in the Constitution,<ref>{{cite web|url=http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/abes-new-vision-for-japans-constitution/|title=Abe's New Vision for Japan's Constitution|first=Yuki Tatsumi, The|last=Diplomat|website=thediplomat.com|access-date=18 May 2017}}</ref> but the constitutional revision was never implemented before Abe's resignation as prime minister in 2020 due to health problems.
It has also been argued that India's government and bureaucracy is geared against emerging as a superpower, with it being argued that it "does very little collective thinking about its long-term foreign policy goals, since most of the strategic planning that takes place within the government happens on an individual level".<ref name="FA Miller 14">{{cite journal |last=Miller |first=Manjari Chatterjee |date=May–June 2013 |title=India's Feeble Foreign Policy |url=https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/india/2013-04-03/indias-feeble-foreign-policy |journal=Foreign Affairs |volume=92 |issue=3 |pages=14–18 |access-date=27 June 2013 |authorlink=Manjari Miller}}</ref>
== Comparative statistics of current candidates ==
=== Contrary views ===
{{Table alignment}}
Though still the world's tenth-largest population and third-largest economy as of 2016 in terms of nominal GDP, Japan has faced an ongoing period of stagnation during the [[Lost Decades]] since the 1990s. Japan has been suffering from an [[Aging of Japan|aging population]] since the early 2000s with real decline in total population starting in 2011,<ref>{{Cite web|last=Armstrong|first=Shiro|title=Japan's Greatest Challenge (And It's Not China): Massive Population Decline|url=https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/japans-greatest-challenge-its-not-china-massive-population-16212|access-date=2020-10-18|website=The National Interest|language=en}}</ref> eroding its potential as a superpower.<ref name="Leika Kihara"/>
!rowspan=2|Population<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20070613004507/https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2119rank.html Population by country on July 2017 Est.] ''[[The World Factbook]] — [[Central Intelligence Agency]]'', Retrieved 10 May 2018</ref><ref>[http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&language=en&pcode=tps00001&tableSelection=1&footnotes=yes&labeling=labels&plugin=1 Population in EU (28) on 1 January 2017] ''[[Eurostat]]''</ref>
!rowspan=2|Population<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20070613004507/https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2119rank.html Population by country on July 2017 Est.] ''[[The World Factbook]] — [[Central Intelligence Agency]]'', Retrieved 10 May 2018</ref><ref>[http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&language=en&pcode=tps00001&tableSelection=1&footnotes=yes&labeling=labels&plugin=1 Population in EU (28) on 1 January 2017] ''[[Eurostat]]''</ref>
!rowspan=2|Area<br />(km<sup>2</sup>)
!rowspan=2|Area<br />(km<sup>2</sup>)
!colspan=2|[[List of countries by GDP (nominal)|GDP (nominal)]]<ref name=":52">{{cite web |author=International Monetary Fund |title=World Economic Outlook Database, April 2023 |url=https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2023/April |publisher=[[International Monetary Fund]]}}</ref>
!colspan=2|[[List of countries by GDP (nominal)|GDP (nominal)]]<ref name=":0">{{Cite web|title=World Economic Outlook Database, April 2021|url=https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/April/weo-report?a=1&c=998,&s=NGDPD,PPPGDP,PPPPC,&sy=2019&ey=2026&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1|access-date=23 July 2021|website=IMF|language=en}}</ref>
!colspan=2|[[List of countries by GDP (PPP)|GDP (PPP)]]<ref name=":52" />
!colspan=2|[[List of countries by GDP (PPP)|GDP (PPP)]]<ref name=":0"/>
!rowspan=2|[[List of countries by military expenditures|Military<br>expenditures]]<br/>(Int$ billion)'''''<ref name="SIPRI-2020">{{cite web |title=Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2022 |url=https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2023-04/2304_fs_milex_2022.pdf |url-status=live |archive-url= |archive-date= |access-date=29 April 2023 |publisher=[[Stockholm International Peace Research Institute]]}}</ref>'''''
!rowspan=2|Military<br>expenditures<br/>(Int$ billion)<ref>{{Cite web|date=April 2023|title=Trends in world military expenditure-2022|url=https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2023-04/2304_fs_milex_2022.pdf|website=SIPRI}}</ref>
!rowspan=2|[[List of countries by Human Development Index|HDI]]<ref name="2022 components">{{cite book |url=https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/global-report-document/hdr2021-22pdf_1.pdf |title=Human Development Report 2021-22: Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives: Shaping our Future in a Transforming World |website=hdr.undp.org |publisher=United Nations Development Programme |isbn=978-9-211-26451-7 |pages=272–276 |access-date=8 September 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220908114232/hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/global-report-document/hdr2021-22pdf_1.pdf |archive-date=8 September 2022 |url-status=live}}</ref>
!rowspan=2|[[List of countries by Human Development Index|HDI]]<ref>{{Cite report |url=https://hdr.undp.org/content/human-development-report-2025 |title=Human Development Report 2025 |last=Nations |first=United |date=2025-05-06 |publisher=United Nations |language=en}}</ref>
!rowspan=2|[[United Nations Security Council veto power|UN Security Council veto power]]
!rowspan=2|[[United Nations Security Council veto power|UN Security Council<br>veto power]]
|-
|-
!(USD million)
!(USD million)
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!(Int$ million)
!(Int$ million)
![[List of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita|Per capita]] (Int$)
![[List of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita|Per capita]] (Int$)
| 214<ref>{{Cite web |title=European defence spending surpasses €200 billion for first time |url=https://eda.europa.eu/news-and-events/news/2022/12/08/european-defence-spending-surpasses-200-billion-for-first-time-driven-by-record-defence-investments-in-2021 |access-date=2023-05-07 |website=eda.europa.eu |language=en}}</ref>
| 337.8<ref>{{Cite web|title=EU defence spending hits new records in 2023, 2024|url=https://eda.europa.eu/news-and-events/news/2024/12/04/eu-defence-spending-hits-new-records-in-2023-2024|access-date=2025-02-12|website=eda.europa.eu|language=en}}</ref>
In the 1980s, some political and economic analysts predicted that [[Japan]] would eventually accede to superpower status due to its large population, growing [[Economy of Japan|economic]], [[Japan Self-Defense Forces|military]], [[Industry of Japan|industrial]], [[Science and technology in Japan|technological]] and [[Culture of Japan|cultural]] influence, large [[gross domestic product]], and [[Japanese economic miracle|high economic growth at that time]].<ref>{{Citation |last=Smith |first=Dennis B. |title=The Emergence of the Economic Superpower: 1980 to the Present |date=1995 |work=Japan since 1945: The Rise of an Economic Superpower |pages=138–169 |editor-last=Smith |editor-first=Dennis B. |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-24126-2_6 |access-date=2024-07-10 |place=London |publisher=Macmillan Education UK |language=en |doi=10.1007/978-1-349-24126-2_6 |isbn=978-1-349-24126-2|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref name="Japan From Superrich To Superpower" /><ref>{{Cite web |last=Kreisberg |first=Paul |date=1988-12-11 |title=Japan: A Superpower Minus Military Power |url=https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1988-12-11-op-67-story.html |access-date=2024-07-10 |website=Los Angeles Times |language=en-US}}</ref> Japan's economy was expected to eventually surpass [[economy of the United States|that of the United States]].<ref name="Zakaria, F 2008">{{cite book |last=Zakaria |first=Fareed |author-link=Fareed Zakaria |url=https://archive.org/details/postamericanworl00zaka_199 |title=The Post-American World |date=2008 |publisher=W. W. Norton and Company |isbn=978-0-393-06235-9 |page=[https://archive.org/details/postamericanworl00zaka_199/page/n225 210] |url-access=limited}}</ref><ref name="Land of the setting sun">{{Cite news |date=November 12, 2009 |title=Land of the setting sun |url=https://www.economist.com/business/2009/11/12/land-of-the-setting-sun |newspaper=The Economist}}</ref><ref name="Japan From Superrich To Superpower">{{cite magazine |date=July 4, 1988 |title=Japan From Superrich To Superpower |url=https://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,967823,00.html |magazine=[[Time (magazine)|Time]]}}</ref> However, this prediction failed to materialise following [[Japanese asset price bubble|a stock market crash]] and the resulting "[[Lost Decades]]", where Japan has suffered a flat to negative economic outlook,<ref name="Leika Kihara">{{cite news |author=Leika Kihara |date=17 August 2012 |title=Japan eyes end to decades long deflation |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-economy-estimate-idUSL4E8JH1TC20120817#ySOkSfW3bZs8lVWK.97 |access-date=7 September 2012 |work=Reuters}}</ref> while [[Aging of Japan|its population has been aging since the late 1980s]] before suffering real decline in total population starting in 2011.<ref name=":1">{{cite web |url = https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/01/china-military-presence-superpower-collision-japan |title = China's military presence is growing. Does a superpower collision loom? |website = The Guardian |date=1 January 2014 |access-date=19 July 2014 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=2023-01-20 |title=Japan was the future but it's stuck in the past |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63830490 |access-date=2024-07-10 |language=en-GB}}</ref>
== See also ==
== See also ==
{{colbegin}}
{{Colbegin}}
* [[American Century]]
* [[American Century]]
* [[ASEAN]]
* [[ASEAN]]
* [[Asian Century]]
* [[Asian Century]]
* [[BRIC]]
* [[BRIC (economics term)]]
* [[BRICS]]
* [[BRICS]]
* [[Emerging power]]
* [[Emerging power]]
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* [[Eurasian Economic Union]]
* [[Eurasian Economic Union]]
* [[Great power]]
* [[Great power]]
* [[List of countries in Europe by military expenditures]]
* [[Mercosur]]
* [[Mercosur]]
* [[Pacific Century]]
* [[Post–Cold War era]]
* [[Post–Cold War era]]
* [[Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership]]
* [[Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership]]
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* [[South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation]]
* [[South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation]]
* [[Superpower collapse]]
* [[Superpower collapse]]
{{colend}}
{{Colend}}
==Notes==
{{notelist}}
== References ==
== References ==
{{reflist|30em}}
{{Reflist|30em}}
== External links ==
== External links ==
* [http://www.crp.polis.cam.ac.uk/ Centre for Rising Powers, University of Cambridge]
* [http://www.crp.polis.cam.ac.uk/ Centre for Rising Powers, University of Cambridge] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190504110212/http://www.crp.polis.cam.ac.uk/ |date=2019-05-04 }}
* [https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/552652 China on the World Stage] from the [https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/552494 Dean Peter Krogh Foreign Affairs Digital Archives]
* [https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/552652 China on the World Stage] from the [https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/552494 Dean Peter Krogh Foreign Affairs Digital Archives]
* [http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/asia/article3913602.ece Blast off: India hopes Mars rocket will enhance its superpower status] by The Times
* [https://www.thetimes.com/tto/news/world/asia/article3913602.ece Blast off: India hopes Mars rocket will enhance its superpower status] by The Times
* [https://hbr.org/2007/12/china-india-the-power-of-two/ar/1 China and India: The Power of Two] by Harvard Business Review
* [https://hbr.org/2007/12/china-india-the-power-of-two/ar/1 China and India: The Power of Two] by Harvard Business Review
* [https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/04/the-end-of-pax-americana-how-western-decline-became-inevitable/256388/?single_page=true The End of Pax Americana: How Western Decline Became Inevitable] by The Atlantic
* [https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/04/the-end-of-pax-americana-how-western-decline-became-inevitable/256388/?single_page=true The End of Pax Americana: How Western Decline Became Inevitable] by The Atlantic
The United States is currently the only country whose status as a superpower finds broad consensus,[4][5][6] with some accounts explicitly calling it the only one.[7][8][9]China, the European Union, Russia and India have been discussed as potential superpowers of the 21st century; Japan was a candidate in the 1980s. The US remains a superpower primarily due to its alliances and economic influence, despite power decline and recent international reputation.[10]
China status as a potential or a de factosuperpower has been subject of great academic and geopolitical debate,[11] with China often seen as the only entity that rivals the United States in the 21st century.[11] Since a 2012 Cornell University - Lund Critical Debate that concluded "China is not yet a superpower",[12] an increasing amount of proponents have highlighted China's modern military, regional influence, cultural export, rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, economic and manufacturing volume as signs of global dominance in the 2020s.[13] However, opponents suggest that domestic challenges still persist; such as an ageing and shrinking population, lack of skilled immigration, alongside international concerns of its soft power status due to human rights issues, lack of hard power capabilities through a global military alliance system, and the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade.[14]
There has been great focus on China's growing economic activity on the global stage, in particular where it has been in competition with the United States: for example, the establishment and large-scale expansion in countries joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in contrast to traditional western institutions, along with the Belt and Road Initiative and China's role in the worldwide groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX.[15][16] It has also been argued that there is likely to be growing competition in future between two highly dominant countries, the United States and China, while others begin to lag behind economically.[17] It has also been predicted that China may overtake the United States as the world's largest economy in the 2020s.[18] Due to the country's rapidly developing AI industry, China has also been referred to as an "AI superpower".[19][20][21]
But some have questioned how long this pace of economic growth could continue, with emphasis placed not only on China's very large but ageing and shrinking population of over 1.4 billion, but also long-term effects of pollution within the country that have accumulated during its fast pace of industrialisation.[22][23][24] The damage to the country's environment has been extremely costly, mostly due to an inability of poor regions to afford environmental regulations,[25] but also a broader freshwater crisis stemming from inefficient management, pollution, and climate change.[26] China also has yet to prove attractive to skilled immigration from outside the country in the same way other countries like the United States have.[27] A supposed lack of soft power is another aspect of contention to China's status as a potential superpower.[28][29]
The United States military considers China as the US' most capable and formidable adversary.[30][31] There has been argument that its ties with Russia and Central Asia could see the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation become the "NATO of the East".[32] It has also been argued that American absence from the Indo-Pacific region during the war on terror has allowed the Chinese to actively challenge the United States as the pre-eminent power in the region.[33] But others have argued that China is still surrounded by potentially hostile nations, and lacks the friends or allies necessary for it to truly compete with the United States.[34]
The European Union (EU) has been called a potential superpower, mainly due to its economic power and global political influence. Factors highlighted have included its large population, the size and global reach of its combined economy, and the comparative unpopularity of US foreign policy.[35][36]
Despite lacking a cohesive military of its own, with military capabilities still in the hands of individual member states, it has been argued that this is irrelevant when considering the status of the EU as a potential superpower.[37][38] Others disagree, saying that its lack of a unified military structure compared to the United States undermines its claim to be a potential superpower.[39][40]
There have also been conflicting views about the EU's lack of political integration. Some have argued that its "lower profile" diplomacy and emphasis on the rule of law represent a new kind of geopolitical influence that fulfills the political requirements for consideration as a superpower, rather than simply failing to meet them.[36][41] Others however argue that its lack of a centralised foreign or defence policy leaves its effectiveness uncertain when compared to that of a more politically integrated union of states such as the United States,[42][43] and it has even been argued that the EU is little more than an extension of a Europe reliant on or dominated by the United States.[44]
Russia, since its imperial times, has been considered both a great power and a regional power. Throughout most of the Soviet-era, the Soviet Union was one of the world's two superpowers. However, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation as its successor state lost its superpower status.[48] In his 2005 publication entitled Russia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower, Steven Rosefielde, a professor of economics at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, predicted that Russia would emerge as a superpower before 2010 and augur another arms race. However, Rosefielde noted that such an end would come with tremendous sacrifice to global security and the Russian people's freedom.[49][page needed]
Others however have put forward more pessimistic views towards Russia's ability to regain its superpower status. A mixed opinion has been offered by Matthew Fleischer of the Los Angeles Times, contending that severe climate change would be necessary for much of Russia's inherent natural resources to become viable.[50]
Several analysts commented on the fact that Russia showed signs of an aging and shrinking population. Fred Weir said that this severely constricts and limits Russia's potential to re-emerge as a central world power.[51] In 2011, British historian and professor Niall Ferguson also highlighted the negative effects of Russia's declining population, and suggested that Russia is on its way to "global irrelevance".[52] Russia has, however, shown a slight population growth since the late 2000s, partly due to immigration, quickly rising birth rates, slowly declining death rates.[53]
In the 21st century, many scholars view Russia's global influence as being in decline.[54][55] Russia's ability to project hard power was also questioned following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the Russian military's poor performance prompting economist Paul Krugman to suggest Russia was little more than a "Potemkin Superpower".[56]
India has seen considerable coverage of its potential of becoming a superpower. Multiple opinions have pointed towards India's rapid economic development as a reason for it to be considered a potential superpower, in particular during the 2010s when it was predicted to outpace China's growth into the future.[lower-alpha 1]
Some commentators made the prediction of India becoming a superpower by 2020, most notably based on A. P. J. Abdul Kalam's book India 2020.[61][62] In 2019, BJP politician Amit Shah claimed that India would emerge as a superpower in the next 5 years under the rule of Narendra Modi.[63]
Economists and researchers at Harvard University have projected India's 7% projected annual growth rate through 2024 would continue to put it ahead of China, making India the fastest growing economy in the world.[64][65] Over and above, India also has the advantage of having a very large and growing young population with a median age of 28, compared to China's median age of 39.[66] In 2003 Goldman Sachs predicted that India would become an economic superpower by 2050.[67] In a 2024 interview with The Independent, former UK PM Tony Blair predicted that by 2050 India would be a 'global superpower' along with the United States and China.[68] In 2025 Former UK PM Rishi Sunak suggested India is an 'economic superpower'.[69]
While India’s economic growth has continued, some analysts note that inequality remains high and that its trade potential is more limited compared to regional competitors such as China. Although India briefly became the world’s fastest-growing major economy in 2015, its growth rate has fallen below China’s since 2018.[lower-alpha 2] From 2021, India has grow higher than China and[75] remain the fastest growing major economy.[76][77][78][79][80]
It has also been argued that India's government and bureaucracy is geared against emerging as a superpower, with it being argued that it "does very little collective thinking about its long-term foreign policy goals, since most of the strategic planning that takes place within the government happens on an individual level".[81]
Comparative statistics of current candidates[edit | edit source]
↑Economy, Elizabeth C. (2010). The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China's Future. A Council on Foreign Relations Book. Ithaca: Cornell University Press. ISBN978-0-8014-7613-6.
↑Colin S. Gray, "Document No. 1: The Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), 2006, and the Perils of the Twenty-First Century," Comparative Strategy, 25/2, (2006): p 143.
↑Taylor, Brian D. (2024). "Power, status, and greatness". Russian Politics: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. pp. 21–40. doi:10.1093/actrade/9780197516027.003.0002. ISBN978-0-19-751602-7. Although the lines sometimes can be blurry, there are only three countries in the world that international relations experts typically classify as having been a great power for the past 300 years: Britain, France, and Russia... Russia's geographic size, nuclear weapons, and permanent UN Security Council seat guarantee its continuing great power status... Yet the greater economic power of the United States, the European Union, and China, as well as rising countries... meant that Russia's future standing in the world remained in doubt even before the Russo-Ukraine War.
↑Šćepanović, Janko (22 March 2023). "Still a great power? Russia's status dilemmas post-Ukraine war". Journal of Contemporary European Studies. 32 (1). Informa UK Limited: 80–95. doi:10.1080/14782804.2023.2193878. ISSN1478-2804. Drezner, as well as others like Dan Depetris, agrees that, on principle, Russia can still be counted among the great powers... At the same time, scholars rightly wonder what rank within the great power club Russia belongs to...
↑Pritchett, Lant (2009). "A Review of Edward Luce's 'In Spite of the Gods: The Strange Rise of Modern India'". Journal of Economic Literature. 47 (3): 771–081. doi:10.1257/jel.47.3.771.
China
European Union
Russia
India
United States